2016 Bracketology

[Shocker-maniac]

Keep in mind that the NCAA basketball tourney is the big money maker for the NCAA. They don't get much football revenue. It certainly behooves the NCAA to generate big TV ad dollars by increasing TV ratings so that they benefit from a big TV contract.

[im4wsu]

As I suggested, have that conversation and learn!

The following link will provide some help until you meet with "those wise professors."

http://www.kantarmedia.com/us/newsro...evenue-in-2013

Nice information to have but does not say that these ads are sold after the announcement of the games where any one matchup could possibly have any effect on the price of the spot during that matchup. Nor does it say that having even 5-10 of the 67 games being either a poor or fantastic matchup will affect the price of this season's ad packages.

As for the quality of this year's tournament success in attracting viewers affecting next year's pricing, absolutely. Without a doubt. Don't need a professor or an idiot to tell me that. Back to the point, does an individual game(s) where KU-WSU and ND-Butler where opponents are switched so that instead we had either KU-ND and WSU-Butler or KU-Butler and WSU-ND would really have much of an impact on the pricing for next year. Please lead me, 1976, to the information that will "learn me" that, becasue that is the subject I was address, not the overall increase in ad prices over the years.

[Shocker1976]

Nice information to have but does not say that these ads are sold after the announcement of the games where any one matchup could possibly have any effect on the price of the spot during that matchup. Nor does it say that having even 5-10 of the 67 games being either a poor or fantastic matchup will affect the price of this season's ad packages.

As for the quality of this year's tournament success in attracting viewers affecting next year's pricing, absolutely. Without a doubt. Don't need a professor or an idiot to tell me that. Back to the point, does an individual game(s) where KU-WSU and ND-Butler where opponents are switched so that instead we had either KU-ND and WSU-Butler or KU-Butler and WSU-ND would really have much of an impact on the pricing for next year. Please lead me, 1976, to the information that will "learn me" that, becasue that is the subject I was address, not the overall increase in ad prices over the years.

Sorry, I have done all I am going to do for you - led you to the waterhole but if you chose not to drink then that is on you.

I will offer you a question you might pose to those "wise professors" When are the prices set for advertising time slots and what criteria do the media sources use for setting the price?

[Shocker1976]

Keep in mind that the NCAA basketball tourney is the big money maker for the NCAA. They don't get much football revenue. It certainly behooves the NCAA to generate big TV ad dollars by increasing TV ratings so that they benefit from a big TV contract.

The link provided earlier states that 95% of the NCAA's revenue comes from March Madness contract.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I haven't looked at the numbers from last year. Possible we will be helped by the giant pile of losses the teams in the T25 have? Seems higher than normal this year, but I could be off.

All data below is via KenPom and is as of selection sunday of the given year. 2016, obviously, is the exception and is based on today's rankings. (1/30). KenPom's ratings (before they get organized as ranks) come out to a decimal number, the higher the better. The table below shows the calculated values for a handful of top 25 rankings over the past 4 years and for 2016 as of today.

I don't think this year looks all that out of the ordinary. Oklahoma, the current #1, appears to be a bit weaker than the #1 of the past 4 years, but teams 5, 10, and 15 all seem to fit in line with past years. There might be a little bit above average strength in the 20-25 range, showing added depth this year. WSU currently sits at #16 (0.9045). That number is likely to increase, but not guaranteed, even if WSU keeps winning. I say likely to increase because the weight of the games played without Fred will become less and less as more games are played. However, if WSU beats some bad MVC teams by only 8-12 points, the rank will drop, as KenPom is based on performance, not just W's and L's.

Rank	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012
1	.9496	.9787	.9540	.9663	.9634
5	.9334	.9571	.9399	.9299	.9378
10	.9163	.9127	.9038	.9169	.9092
15	.9050	.9038	.8925	.9025	.8903
20	.8928	.8725	.8804	.8766	.8748
25	.8775	.8539	.8688	.8666	.8540

For Reference
WSU 2012 - #9 (0.9122)
WSU 2013 - #35 (0.8397)
WSU 2014 - #5 (0.9399)
WSU 2015 - #14 (0.9044)
WSU 2016 - #16 (0.9045) as of today

[im4wsu]

Sorry, I have done all I am going to do for you - led you to the waterhole but if you chose not to drink then that is on you.

I will offer you a question you might pose to those "wise professors" When are the prices set for advertising time slots and what criteria do the media sources use for setting the price?

I know the answer to the first question isn't four days before the first televised games in the round of 64, which means it is before selection Sunday, which translates to before the matchups have been determined.

As to the second question, the basic answer is viewership and viewer demographics and what the marketplace will bear. Say that a WSU-KU matchup added all of the households in Kansas over and above what a KU-ND matchup would generate, so let's say, doubling the 500,000 households to 1 million viewers for one game, don't believe that that one game, in and of itself, with its 1 million additional viewers is going to significantly impact the price of the next year's ad prices. It is simply a pimple on a gnat's anatomy in the grand scheme of the NCAA tournament.

[Shocker-maniac]

I know the answer to the first question isn't four days before the first televised games in the round of 64, which means it is before selection Sunday, which translates to before the matchups have been determined.

As to the second question, the basic answer is viewership and viewer demographics and what the marketplace will bear. Say that a WSU-KU matchup added all of the households in Kansas over and above what a KU-ND matchup would generate, so let's say, doubling the 500,000 households to 1 million viewers for one game, don't believe that that one game, in and of itself, with its 1 million additional viewers is going to significantly impact the price of the next year's ad prices. It is simply a pimple on a gnat's anatomy in the grand scheme of the NCAA tournament.

1. It's true that the advertising rates are determined and the advertising is sold long before Selection Sunday. However, it is to the NCAA's advantage to generate the most viewership for the NCAA tournament. There are at least two reasons for this: (a) As has been mentioned previously, the contracts with advertisers provide guarantees for the number of viewers for the advertising slots that the advertisers purchased, (b) This one is even more crucial than the first, the TV ratings for the current tournament will determine the advertising rates that will be charged for the tournament the following year. Therefore, all parties (TV, advertisers, and the NCAA) want to see match-ups that will draw more viewers to watch the games on TV.

2. Throughout the season last year, there was a lot of discussion by the national media about KU refusing to play WSU. This generated a lot of interest nationally in the WSU-KU match up. There is a reason that they put that game on CBS instead of a cable outlet, and that reason wasn't so they could get more viewers from the State of Kansas. It was because they knew that this match up was going to get a lot of national interest and would gain the highest ratings of any of the other match-ups for that day. If WSU was not playing KU that day, more than likely WSU would have been televised on one of the cable outlets.

As was previously mentioned, most of the NCAA's revenue comes from March Madness. It is in their best interest to get the highest TV ratings for the tournament because it translates to more revenue in the future. One way to do that is to get match ups that will draw a lot of national attention and interest.

[Shocker1976]

All data below is via KenPom and is as of selection sunday of the given year. 2016, obviously, is the exception and is based on today's rankings. (1/30). KenPom's ratings (before they get organized as ranks) come out to a decimal number, the higher the better. The table below shows the calculated values for a handful of top 25 rankings over the past 4 years and for 2016 as of today.

I don't think this year looks all that out of the ordinary. Oklahoma, the current #1, appears to be a bit weaker than the #1 of the past 4 years, but teams 5, 10, and 15 all seem to fit in line with past years. There might be a little bit above average strength in the 20-25 range, showing added depth this year. WSU currently sits at #16 (0.9045). That number is likely to increase, but not guaranteed, even if WSU keeps winning. I say likely to increase because the weight of the games played without Fred will become less and less as more games are played. However, if WSU beats some bad MVC teams by only 8-12 points, the rank will drop, as KenPom is based on performance, not just W's and L's.

Rank	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012
1	.9496	.9787	.9540	.9663	.9634
5	.9334	.9571	.9399	.9299	.9378
10	.9163	.9127	.9038	.9169	.9092
15	.9050	.9038	.8925	.9025	.8903
20	.8928	.8725	.8804	.8766	.8748
25	.8775	.8539	.8688	.8666	.8540

For Reference
WSU 2012 - #9 (0.9122)
WSU 2013 - #35 (0.8397)
WSU 2014 - #5 (0.9399)
WSU 2015 - #14 (0.9044)
WSU 2016 - #16 (0.9045) as of today

Interesting data JH4P - I hope your work is predictive for seeds in the 2016 bracket.

[im4wsu]

Shockers are now #14 in KenPom between #13 Iowa State and #15 Kansas.

[im4wsu]

Shockers are now #14 in KenPom between #13 Iowa State and #15 Kansas.

The beakers jumped us with their scintillating win over UK last night. We're now #15 behind #13 ISU and #14 KU

[AZ Shocker]

Would it be possible for the Shocks to move up today after a pretty nice ROAD win?

[Kel Varnsen]

Would it be possible for the Shocks to move up today after a pretty nice ROAD win?

We would move up in KenPom if our margin of victory is 4+ (just a hunch). We are predicted to win by 1, so if we exceed that margin of victory significantly, we would likely move up to 14 or 13.

[AZ Shocker]

We would move up in KenPom if our margin of victory is 4+ (just a hunch). We are predicted to win by 1, so if we exceed that margin of victory significantly, we would likely move up to 14 or 13.

Perfect!

[kcshocker11]

nm

[DJShocker10]

nm

I'm just gonna post this before I check the date of the article, but Duke is NOT a 1 seed...