2016 Bracketology

[pogo]

I wouldn't argue that there were enough teams that still had games to play that IF they all won those games, WSU would have been left out. That said. Not nearly enough of those teams played their way in to knock WSU out. That's why you are seeing WSU steadily climb all of these brackets. The articles were all a little premature in their proclamations of certainty

The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated. MT

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Today, Fresno State was the only team that might have stolen a bid. I say "might" because there is no guarantee SDSU gets a bid after the loss. The Mountain West might be merely a 1 bid league with Fresno State taking the only spot.

Tomorrow, nobody on the bubble is playing. A couple teams right ahead of WSU might fall, but nobody is going to jump up. The only potential bid thief tomorrow is Memphis. They must beat UConn to grab a bid. If that were to happen, the cut line would move up one spot. For me, that would mean Vandy would fall to the NIT.

Saturday evening update...

Team	Still Playing?	RPI	KenPom	vs top 100	Bad Losses	Comments
USC		51	48	9-12		Lock
Oregon St		33	60	11-11	103	Lock
VCU	Yes	31	31	8-7	198, 170	Lock
UConn	Yes	41	29	8-10		Lock
WICHITA ST		47	11	4-7	114	LOCK
Cincy		48	32	7-9	140	Lock
Butler		57	39	6-9	110	Just short of lock status
Pitt		52	44	9-9	128, 122	Just short of lock status
South Carolina		64	50	8-5	221, 152, 143	Probably in
St. Bonaventure		30	79	7-5	232, 160, 105	Barely in
St. Mary's		37	34	6-3	127, 127	Barely in
Michigan		56	55	4-12		Squarely on the bubble
Vandy		61	27	7-10	152, 143, 129	Squarely on the bubble
--Cut Line--						--Cut Line--
San Diego St		38	42	3-7	302, 101	Squarely on the bubble
Monmouth		53	67	3-4	230, 222, 215	Slim NCAA chances
Syracuse		71	40	8-10	245, 128, 104	Slim NCAA chances
Valpo		50	36	4-2	179, 146, 146, 112	Very slim NCAA chances
Florida		55	43	7-13	143	Very slim NCAA chances
Temple		60	88	7-9	216, 140	Headed to NIT
Tulsa		58	58	8-8	147, 140, 140	Headed to NIT
George Washington		67	77	4-7	206, 200, 115	Headed to NIT

One more observation. From top to bottom of this list, WSU is the only team in the KenPom top 25. The committee would basically have to discard KenPom altogether in order to leave out WSU.

[mjbaker84]

My dad delivers Pepsi to Koch Arena for his job and said Koch arena requested 7 more pallets of items (mixture of different types of soda, water, etc) in anticipation of possibily having to host an NIT game.

now obviously they can always use the product and send it to baseball/softball concessions if needed.

[ShockerFever]

My dad delivers Pepsi to Koch Arena for his job and said Koch arena requested 7 more pallets of items (mixture of different types of soda, water, etc) in anticipation of possibily having to host an NIT game.

now obviously they can always use the product and send it to baseball/softball concessions if needed.

cool story bro

[Eric]

The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated. MT

MT was a classmate of yours, no? Just kidding

[WSUwatcher]

I was talking earlier about a possible opener between WSU and Seton Hall, but I just noticed that Lunardi has a different rematch in mind for the Shocks: an 8-9 game, with WSU as the #9 (as in 2013) against USC. I don't live or die with what Lunardi thinks the way some do, because he STILL isn't on the selection committee. But that's probably one the Shocks would welcome just as much as a game against the Hall, if not more so.

[choida]

My dad delivers Pepsi to Koch Arena for his job and said Koch arena requested 7 more pallets of items (mixture of different types of soda, water, etc) in anticipation of possibily having to host an NIT game.

now obviously they can always use the product and send it to baseball/softball concessions if needed.

Just business and due diligence

[choida]

Michigan State, Kansas, Oregon & North Carolina are or should be the ones..

[ShockerFever]

I was talking earlier about a possible opener between WSU and Seton Hall, but I just noticed that Lunardi has a different rematch in mind for the Shocks: an 8-9 game, with WSU as the #9 (as in 2013) against USC. I don't live or die with what Lunardi thinks the way some do, because he STILL isn't on the selection committee. But that's probably one the Shocks would welcome just as much as a game against the Hall, if not more so.

Once again, you can't play a regular season opponent in the first round, so just like the Hall, it's NOT going to happen.

When you're signed out as a guest and read this, hopefully it sinks in.

[another shocker]

Michigan State, Kansas, Oregon & North Carolina are or should be the ones..

hopefully north carolina

[Keyser Soze]

Once again, you can't play a regular season opponent in the first round, so just like the Hall, it's NOT going to happen.

When you're signed out as a guest and read this, hopefully it sinks in.

If you are going to be a jerk, at least be accurate. That is no longer a matchup requirement. It has been relaxed to be a "consideration" of the committee, but no longer a rule have to follow if it creates too much deviation from the S-curve.

[ShockerFever]

If you are going to be a jerk, at least be accurate. That is no longer a matchup requirement. It has been relaxed to be a "consideration" of the committee, but no longer a rule have to follow if it creates too much deviation from the S-curve.

It can be relaxed at the worst case scenario. The point is, they'll avoid rematches at all cost. And quite honestly, it makes sense.

A jerk? I'm just telling it how it is for somebody who "ignores" me. But thanks for crossing my t's and dotting my i's.

[choida]

hopefully north carolina

Correction... Order will be different based on tomorrow, but Joe said, Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia & Michigan State

[choida]

Picking tournament teams is what Joe Lunardi can do, but as far as seeding, regions, matchups... No way he can get that even close to right

[WillieJeffJeffries]

My predictions:
26-5: 5 seed
25-6: 7 seed
24-7: 8 seed
23-8: 11 seed
22-9: 12 seed (bubble in)
21-10: Bubble out

I vote #4, we will lose at least 2 more games but 3 is more likely...

Please identify the two games you guarantee the Shockers will lose and the one you think is likely. Another poster offered 7 losses but he has already been proven wrong on his prediction.

I think they lose @ Eville and one other road game. WSU has sent some very good teams to St Louis and went 3-0 there only once. Odds are they will not win the MVC tourney......= 3 more loss....

So now you think some smart guy on February 5th should've been able to predict WSU would lose 3 games to UNI/ISU in the following month?

Not going to happen. Once bracketologists start trying to predidict those things, the value of projections would go out the window. No thanks.

As it is, Jerry Palm's outlook on WSU from early February appears to have been right, but of course he wasn't really right. He was too low on WSU and got lucky that WSU lost some games down the stretch to fall into his ranking. Of course, if he really expected those loses, he would have kept WSU in the same spot all the way up to today. What actually happened is is continued to drop WSU and is still too low on them today. He wasn't right then, and he isn't right now.

I guess I was that "Smart Guy" The above was from Jan page 2 and 3 of this thread....Although to be fair I thought we would lose at Eville and a second game that we shouldn't....turns out we lost at ISUr and the game we shouldn't was NIU at home. Anyway after today I think we are in as a 10 or 11 just as we both predicted in Jan.