2016 Bracketology

[shoxlax]

I thought the prevailing view was we would go out west due to lack of tourney teams. What changed?

[Shockers5150]

I think it'll be west.

[WuShock Reaper]

If you go by just the Bracket Matrix, over the last 5 years, about 95% of the brackets were correct. WSU should be good.

If you go by just the NCAA RPI rankings, over the last 5 years, about 97% of the teams between 1 an 50 made the tournament. WSU should be good.

If you use the average score of the big six ranking methodologies (NCAA RPI, KenPom, Sagarin, KPI Sports, ESPN BPI, and Nolan Warren) which I read and heard the other day they use, WE ARE A LOCK!

[COS Shocker]

Saturday evening update...

Team	Still Playing?	RPI	KenPom	vs top 100	Bad Losses	Comments
USC		51	48	9-12		Lock
Oregon St		33	60	11-11	103	Lock
VCU	Yes	31	31	8-7	198, 170	Lock
UConn	Yes	41	29	8-10		Lock
WICHITA ST		47	11	4-7	114	LOCK
Cincy		48	32	7-9	140	Lock
Butler		57	39	6-9	110	Just short of lock status
Pitt		52	44	9-9	128, 122	Just short of lock status
South Carolina		64	50	8-5	221, 152, 143	Probably in
St. Bonaventure		30	79	7-5	232, 160, 105	Barely in
St. Mary's		37	34	6-3	127, 127	Barely in
Michigan		56	55	4-12		Squarely on the bubble
Vandy		61	27	7-10	152, 143, 129	Squarely on the bubble
--Cut Line--						--Cut Line--
San Diego St		38	42	3-7	302, 101	Squarely on the bubble
Monmouth		53	67	3-4	230, 222, 215	Slim NCAA chances
Syracuse		71	40	8-10	245, 128, 104	Slim NCAA chances
Valpo		50	36	4-2	179, 146, 146, 112	Very slim NCAA chances
Florida		55	43	7-13	143	Very slim NCAA chances
Temple		60	88	7-9	216, 140	Headed to NIT
Tulsa		58	58	8-8	147, 140, 140	Headed to NIT
George Washington		67	77	4-7	206, 200, 115

Thanks Jamar for all the great work and updates this week.

I also feel we have been safely in all week. Below is the way I would rank the last of the at large selections.

WSU
St. Joes
UConn
Cincy
USC
VCU
Butler
Pitt
Oreg St
St. Bonaventure
Last 4 in:
Temple
Monmouth
Syracuse
Michigan
First 4 out:
Valpo (personally I would put them in over Michigan, but don't think the committee will). To me their win at Oreg. St and regular season champion should put them in
Vandy (would not surprise me if they are in over Michigan or Syracuse)
SDSU (to weak OOC schedule)
St. Mary's (see SDSU)
South Carolina (see above)

[fansince80s]

That has to be for clicks, right? I can't imagine the committee puts WSU vs KU in the 2nd round in back to back years.

They want KU to get another shot, if we would of loss no way Jose on rematch.

[shock-it-to-me]

They want KU to get another shot, if we would of loss no way Jose on rematch.

This is ridiculous thinking. The committee DOESN'T CARE!

[im4wsu]

This is ridiculous thinking. The committee DOESN'T CARE!

the committee SHOULDN'T care.

One of the placement rules/objectives is to not repeat matchups from the first round in the two previous years, but this would be the "second" round, actually round 3 now that they consider Dayton Round 1.

[shoxlax]

the committee SHOULDN'T care.

One of the placement rules/objectives is to not repeat matchups from the first round in the two previous years, but this would be the "second" round, actually round 3 now that they consider Dayton Round 1.

If it fits their matrix and makes a good story line so be it. But them wanting to KU to get a revenge game is ridiculous

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

What does the VCU blowout do for us, if anything?

It increases the chances that WSU passes VCU on the S-Curve. Both teams are in regardless.

[fansince80s]

the committee SHOULDN'T care.

One of the placement rules/objectives is to not repeat matchups from the first round in the two previous years, but this would be the "second" round, actually round 3 now that they consider Dayton Round 1.

They went back to the old way, not round 3 anymore. Dayton back to first four play in not round 1.

[wuhog]

Dayton no longer called Round 1. It is officially the First Four.

Edit: Sorry for repeat.

[pinstripers]

Dayton no longer called Round 1. It is officially the First Four.

Edit: Sorry for repeat.

makes more sense

[wichshock65]

It increases the chances that WSU passes VCU on the S-Curve. Both teams are in regardless.

I personally am hoping for more of a 10 seed than be 8 or 9. Seems to be a much better path.

[ShockerGirl]

Dayton no longer called Round 1. It is officially the First Four.

Edit: Sorry for repeat.

Can they retroactively correct the last few years? Going to be annoying looking up teams/coaches records and seeing the "Second Round/Third Round" mess.

[Onegreatracer]

Please not Spokane... The one place I can't go