Games of Interest (2015-16 Edition)

[Dave Stalwart]

Valpo has lost 4 times to teams that won't even sniff the NIT.
VCU has lost twice to teams with losing records.

Are you sure you want to use those 2 teams as shining examples of never having a bad night?

No I want to use them as examples of teams that would make the dance more interesting who might not get in because they've had a few off nights while those other two teams have had about 30 off nights. I would be much more interested in having teams like UALR and those teams I already mentioned in the dance because this year the top 10 all seem beatable.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I want to use them as examples of teams that would make the dance more interesting

Making the dance "more interesting" is not a criteria the committee uses, nor is it one I would want them to use.

those other two teams have had about 30 off nights

Your hyperbole is off the charts.

Using KenPom, games vs top 100, total number of losses on the season
Texas 24 , 11
TTech 22 , 11
VCU 12 , 8

VCU is 6-6 vs the top 100 so far. Make them play another 10-12 top 100 games and you think they lose fewer than 3 of them?

[ShockingButTrue]

WSU lost in the regular season to ISU. I know you think WSU is the better team overall. Why can't you admit upsets happen in playoff formats too? That is the entirety of @Kel Varnsen's point. I don't get the controversy.

I do think their better. So devalue the winning team, or, the losing team because of it? What kind of ideology says The Shockers were a lock to win in Normal (we know the type)? We can go there if you want to, but I'd rather not support that brand. Wichita St. lost 2 games in The Valley. According to KenPom should they have lost none huh? That's a lot of pressure from the peripheral isn't it? And I don't remember the topic being "upsets".

[Cdizzle]

Making the dance "more interesting" is not a criteria the committee uses, nor is it one I would want them to use.



Your hyperbole is off the charts.

Using KenPom, games vs top 100, total number of losses on the season
Texas 24 , 11
TTech 22 , 11
VCU 12 , 8

VCU is 6-6 vs the top 100 so far. Make them play another 10-12 top 100 games and you think they lose fewer than 3 of them?

Definitely agree with your "more interesting" response.

However, I do think sometimes fans and media under-value the importance of home games. Texas and Texas Tech have had 10 and 9 games against Top 100 opponents at home so for this year. VCU has had 4.

Using RPI (don't have time to do kenPom right now...), Texas is 13-10 against Top100, Tech is 7-10. If you normalize UT and Tech to the same 33% home games at VCU, do you think they would have fared as well? Flipping just 2 of those home wins to road losses gives UT a Top100 win% lower than VCUs. Tech is already lower than them, but would probably approach 5-12 territory.

I'm not necessarily advocating VCU (or any other team, just used VCU because you had) over these Texas teams, but I do think it's a bit more involved than just saying "this team played more Top 100 teams so they must be better."

And I'm not even completely sold on the total losses argument either. VCU is 16-2 against RPI 100+. Texas and Texas Tech are a combined 17-2. Not surprisingly, all of those losses were on the road.

I think what these 3 teams resume's really demonstrate right now is that VCU is a victim of a schedule with fewer favorable opportunities for good wins at home, and more opportunities for bad losses on the road. I'm not sure we can really draw any more conclusions from it than that.

[Kung Wu]

Using KenPom, games vs top 100, total number of losses on the season
Texas 24 , 11
TTech 22 , 11
VCU 12 , 8

VCU is 6-6 vs the top 100 so far. Make them play another 10-12 top 100 games and you think they lose fewer than 3 of them?

Did VCU have to play a larger percent of their top 100 games on the road or at neutral sites, compared with Texas Tech?

Edit: Nevermind, @Cdizzle: brought up the same concern.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Fair enough @Cdizzle:. Good, thoughtful post.

I just get tired of people acting like an 11 loss team (true of both Texas and Texas Tech) has somehow failed in a way that an 8 loss team (VCU) hasn't. Texas and Texas Tech both have top 5 SOS. VCU's isn't top 100.

Just as we all get sick and tired of certain media members focusing ONLY on quality wins, I think some posters here have a tendency to go too far in the other direction and focus ONLY on win totals with virtually no attention to the quality of those wins.

[ShockingButTrue]

I go with neither, but think that of the two that the power index is more indicative i.e. opponents/opponents' strength, good wins, bad losses and head to head.

Conjecture can be a two-sided street. If I'm going to engage in it, it will be slanted to the RPI.

As I recall, and I'm sorry to go back there, this line of descent began with someone coming on here and touting a 30 point road conference win. I could be a little overly suspicious, but it sounded as if it was mean to condescend.

My counter (I know, I shouldn't of went there) was that The Shockers are doing the same thing routinely. KenPom was then referenced, as was conference affiliation. Ho Hum, nothing new.

But the more reliable extension would be opponents/opponets' strength wouldn't it? And head to head? Meaning there is a more realistic comparison than just "my conference can whip your conference" blustering; and that's head to head.

We have some tangible and organic examples of that this very season don't we? AND NO, I'M NOT SAYING THE VALLEY IS BETTER, ok Kel? It's just maybe a l-I-t-t-l-e closer in the world beyond conjecture, per the actual results gathered.

[Dave Stalwart]

Making the dance "more interesting" is not a criteria the committee uses, nor is it one I would want them to use.



Your hyperbole is off the charts.

Using KenPom, games vs top 100, total number of losses on the season
Texas 24 , 11
TTech 22 , 11
VCU 12 , 8

VCU is 6-6 vs the top 100 so far. Make them play another 10-12 top 100 games and you think they lose fewer than 3 of them?

Fair enough. I definitely hope those teams can get in, though. And hopefully teams like Texas and Texas Tech play a little better when it counts. I don't expect them to, but you are right that their resumes are fine in the quality wins category...although I do think their resumes are a very strong sample size indicating they will not win many games, if any in the dance. The eye test lately would back that up, too. I guess I'd rather see an unknown quantity like UALR play a team like Kansas instead of a known quantity like Texas getting another shot to demonstrate their lack of consistency. It's crazy that the 30 range teams this year are that much worse than the top 10 range teams. A lot of people think there's a ton of parity these year, but apparently there's not if teams like Texas are really that much worse than KU and West Virginia. It bodes very well for the Shockers, too.

[Dave Stalwart]

Fair enough @Cdizzle. Good, thoughtful post.

I just get tired of people acting like an 11 loss team (true of both Texas and Texas Tech) has somehow failed in a way that an 8 loss team (VCU) hasn't. Texas and Texas Tech both have top 5 SOS. VCU's isn't top 100.

Just as we all get sick and tired of certain media members focusing ONLY on quality wins, I think some posters here have a tendency to go too far in the other direction and focus ONLY on win totals with virtually no attention to the quality of those wins.

I don't disagree with you at all. Facts are facts. I will say that I was using teams that are already up around #40-#60 even with their bad schedules and lack of quality wins. When I'm comparing a team that is #40 with a light schedule to a team that is #30 with a really hard schedule, and you think the team that is #30 has a way better resume even will all their losses, my question would be "what is the point of the RPI then?" I kinda think if I'm looking at a #30 who is getting owned at home and has 11 losses on the year as opposed to a #40 who doesn't play in the same conference so has fewer opportunities to get good wins but has been consistent, I would like to see the #40 get a shot. It's not like I'm talking about #100 versus #30. I don't want to use a charity system to make the dance more interesting, but I can about guarantee Texas can't beat Kansas after the other night...and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see VCU, Gonzaga or Valpo knock off Kansas. Again, I don't disagree with you. I'm just going with my gut. The numbers don't always win...

[ShockingButTrue]

Fair enough @Cdizzle. Good, thoughtful post.

I just get tired of people acting like an 11 loss team (true of both Texas and Texas Tech) has somehow failed in a way that an 8 loss team (VCU) hasn't. Texas and Texas Tech both have top 5 SOS. VCU's isn't top 100.

Just as we all get sick and tired of certain media members focusing ONLY on quality wins, I think some posters here have a tendency to go too far in the other direction and focus ONLY on win totals with virtually no attention to the quality of those wins.

Who would KenPom favor: Iowa vs. Dayton and why?

How well would Ill. St. compete with elite teams at home?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

but I can about guarantee Texas can't beat Kansas after the other night

Texas has 8 wins over teams likely to be in the Big Dance. They have 4 wins over team likely to be seeded 1, 2, or 3, one of which came just 48 hours prior to the loss to Kansas.

I just don't get the fixation on one game. Even more, I don't get how anyone could guarantee that Texas can't beat just about anyone. They've literally already beaten the best of the best multiple times this season, and yes, they've beaten a potential 3 seed and a potential 6 seed ON THE ROAD, so yes, they are capable of winning away from home.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Who would KenPom favor: Iowa vs. Dayton and why?

How well would Ill. St. compete with elite teams at home?

Iowa and WSU are both ranked higher than Dayton and Illinois State respectively, but upsets happen in a single 40 minute game. What is your point?

[ShockingButTrue]

Iowa and WSU are both ranked higher than Dayton and Illinois State respectively, but upsets happen in a single 40 minute game. What is your point?

My point won't come until you answer the questions. Could Ill. St. beat an elite team in Normal? Why is Iowa better than Dayton?

[ShockingButTrue]

Texas has 8 wins over teams likely to be in the Big Dance. They have 4 wins over team likely to be seeded 1, 2, or 3, one of which came just 48 hours prior to the loss to Kansas.

I just don't get the fixation on one game. Even more, I don't get how anyone could guarantee that Texas can't beat just about anyone. They've literally already beaten the best of the best multiple times this season, and yes, they've beaten a potential 3 seed and a potential 6 seed ON THE ROAD, so yes, they are capable of winning away from home.

Please. Illinois St. could beat Texas. And it wouldn't be from out of left field either. They could probably beat ku too. Wadda think about that?

[chitown_shocker]

My point won't come until you answer the questions. Could Ill. St. beat an elite team in Normal? Why is Iowa better than Dayton?

You asked him what Ken Pom said and he answered.

He also answered that ISU could upset a better team at home. That upsets are not uncommon.

Are you dumb or trolling?