Games of Interest (2015-16 Edition)

[ShockerFever]

Man Kel, if you defended WSU half as well you do the Big XII, you'd own this place.

[Kel Varnsen]

I agree that one game is a very small percentage of a season, but when 5 out of 6 (or whatever the number was last year) of a conference's teams don't make it out of the first weekend, that's more than one game. When a team loses to 4 out of 5 MVC opponents over a 6-8 year period, it's not one game. I know those numbers aren't accurate, as I'm unable to research right not, but they're close enough to get the point across. I have a lot of respect for the KenPom and Sagarin and things of that sort. It doesn't mean that those numbers will translate when playing against competition other than each other. As I said, I'd like to see how their numbers change the first weekend of the tournament as compared to their conference season. I'd also like to see how their non-con numbers compare to their conference numbers. I may very well be surprised.

KU has played five Valley teams over the course of the last 6-8 years, true. But how many other games have they played in that span? How many games have they played against top competition? How many games have they played in the non-conference against quality opponents? How many other games have teams in the Big 12 played in a certain span of time? The conference rankings I mentioned account for every single non-conference and tournament game played each year, sans 2016 obviously.

If we were to go out and lose by 15 in the first round to a team who was much lesser in these rankings, I would be up defending WSU to anyone who would listen. It has to go both ways.

That said, these metrics can't always be taken as gospel. There are nuances and context to be applied, for sure. But it's hard to argue with such a consistent record over a long span of time.

[Kel Varnsen]

Man Kel, if you defended WSU half as well you do the Big XII, you'd own this place.

Ha, thanks? I don't need to defend WSU here though. That cause is already in good hands.

[ShockdaWorld]

KU has played five Valley teams over the course of the last 6-8 years, true. But how many other games have they played in that span? How many games have they played against top competition? How many games have they played in the non-conference against quality opponents? How many other games have teams in the Big 12 played in a certain span of time? The conference rankings I mentioned account for every single non-conference and tournament game played each year, sans 2016 obviously.

If we were to go out and lose by 15 in the first round to a team who was much lesser in these rankings, I would be up defending WSU to anyone who would listen. It has to go both ways.

That said, these metrics can't always be taken as gospel. There are nuances and context to be applied, for sure. But it's hard to argue with such a consistent record over a long span of time.

One more time...I don't want to see it all combined. I want to see it for their non-con, their conference, and then their first weekend tournament. Are you trying to tell me that KU lost 4 (and almost all five) of those games because they just happen to have a bad night every time they play an MVC team? If that's the case, then it sounds like the coaching may leave something to be desired, and I know that's not your opinion. As for the non-con quality opponents...what is their best out of conference win so far this year? I really don't know. I know they've got UK coming up and should kill them kids, but I'm trying to think who they've beaten so far this year. Maybe SDSU at their house or UCLA on a neutral court?

[Kel Varnsen]

One more time...I don't want to see it all combined. I want to see it for their non-con, their conference, and then their first weekend tournament. Are you trying to tell me that KU lost 4 (and almost all five) of those games because they just happen to have a bad night every time they play an MVC team? If that's the case, then it sounds like the coaching may leave something to be desired, and I know that's not your opinion. As for the non-con quality opponents...what is their best out of conference win so far this year? I really don't know. I know they've got UK coming up and should kill them kids, but I'm trying to think who they've beaten so far this year. Maybe SDSU at their house or UCLA on a neutral court?

I don't have a breakdown and I don't believe KenPom does apart from conference play. So I don't think I can help you there.

As for the Valley notion, is there something significant to these Valley teams? Do they all have a similar style of play? There has to be some other determining factor other than the fact that they played in the same conference in different seasons (some 2-3 years apart). Also, looking at some of their games against Valley teams, it's not like these are your average Valley teams for the most part. They were:

#25 Bradley in 2006 (KU was #8), #16 Southern Illinois in 2007 (KU was #5), #19 Northern Iowa in 2010 (KU was #2), and #10 Wichita State in 2015 (KU was #14). Easily the best Valley teams in each of those seasons, many of them with some quality wins outside of playing KU.

As for their record this season, they are 5-2 in games vs the top 50 (adjusting for location, so some teams' raw KP rank is below that) with their only two losses coming against the #5 and #11 KenPom teams. Their wins include #29 Vanderbilt (Neutral), #74 San Diego State (Away), #20 Baylor (Home), #4 Oklahoma (Home), and #51 Texas Tech (Away). Doesn't jump off the page initially, but considering where other teams are at, their resume puts them pretty well in the top 5 in the country. And a lot of these rankings dive deeper than just a win/loss...such as points per possession and everything that goes along with that.

There has to be room for variance. It will ALWAYS happen in the NCAA tournament and most other areas of life as well. Correlation does not imply causation.

[Cdizzle]

I wish we got to count 4 games against Baylor and Texas Tech as quality wins every year.

[Cdizzle]

Maybe looking at non-home games against Top 100 non-conference opponents over the same period of years would be helpful. I think a lot of the B12's good defensive metrics come from the fact that they rack up obscene numbers in the non-con (again, good on ya) where the games are played mostly at home. Then when they play each other, their marginal defenses get great advanced metric ratings because of the inflated non-conference offensive numbers of their opponents.

I love looking at the numbers, and I use them to argue pro-WSU points all day long. But I also watch a lot of basketball. When I watch WSU play, I see a consistently good/great defensive team. The same for the likes of UVA, SDSU and Arizona. That simply isn't the case when I watch most Big12/ACC games.

[ShockdaWorld]

I don't have a breakdown and I don't believe KenPom does apart from conference play. So I don't think I can help you there.

As for the Valley notion, is there something significant to these Valley teams? Do they all have a similar style of play? There has to be some other determining factor other than the fact that they played in the same conference in different seasons (some 2-3 years apart). Also, looking at some of their games against Valley teams, it's not like these are your average Valley teams for the most part. They were:

#25 Bradley in 2006 (KU was #8), #16 Southern Illinois in 2007 (KU was #5), #19 Northern Iowa in 2010 (KU was #2), and #10 Wichita State in 2015 (KU was #14). Easily the best Valley teams in each of those seasons, many of them with some quality wins outside of playing KU.

As for their record this season, they are 5-2 in games vs the top 50 (adjusting for location, so some teams' raw KP rank is below that) with their only two losses coming against the #5 and #11 KenPom teams. Their wins include #29 Vanderbilt (Neutral), #74 San Diego State (Away), #20 Baylor (Home), #4 Oklahoma (Home), and #51 Texas Tech (Away). Doesn't jump off the page initially, but considering where other teams are at, their resume puts them pretty well in the top 5 in the country. And a lot of these rankings dive deeper than just a win/loss...such as points per possession and everything that goes along with that.

There has to be room for variance. It will ALWAYS happen in the NCAA tournament and most other areas of life as well. Correlation does not imply causation.

You are correct. They were the best teams in the Valley in each of those given years. AND KU was the best team in the Big12. Does this imply that on those occasions, the Valley's best was better than the Big12's best? And wouldn't that push even more toward the idea that the Big12 was overrated at least in those years? I mean, when everybody says that they had their worst shooting night against WSU, we eventually begin to think it's not a coincidence.

[ShockdaWorld]

I wish we got to count 4 games against Baylor and Texas Tech as quality wins every year.

And TCU and OSU...

Not to mention K-State.

[Kel Varnsen]

You are correct. They were the best teams in the Valley in each of those given years. AND KU was the best team in the Big12. Does this imply that on those occasions, the Valley's best was better than the Big12's best? And wouldn't that push even more toward the idea that the Big12 was overrated at least in those years? I mean, when everybody says that they had their worst shooting night against WSU, we eventually begin to think it's not a coincidence.

Meh...fair, but I just don't believe those games represent a large enough sample size to be statistically significant in the grand scheme of things. Basically, not enough to draw an overarching conclusion from. The WSU thing is different; when we play Power 5 schools, we perform well defensively...that is an observation supported by both the metrics that we had prior to the game, as well as the things we see and observe.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Let's look at KU vs New Mexico State from last year's tournament. New Mexico State was a slightly better than average offensive team (ranked 124th nationally).

2015 D1 average - 102 pts per 100 possessions.
2015 Kansas - Defensive Efficiency: 91.7 (10th nationally)
KU’s expected defensive efficiency when adjusted for playing vs New Mexico State: 93.9

In the round of 64, KU won 75-56 in a game with 61 possessions. KU’s defensive efficiency for that game: 91.8 (slightly better than expectations)

Shorthand, I could describe KU’s defensive performance vs New Mexico State as follows:
KU vs New Mexico State: -2.1

Using that shorthand format, here are all the Big 12 Tourney games from last year:

KU vs New Mexico State: -2.1
KU vs Wichita State:+9.6
OU vs Albany: +8.3
OU vs Dayton: +4.2
OU vs Michigan State: +9.1
Baylor vs Georgia State: -4.0
Iowa State vs UAB: -11.7
Texas vs Butler: -4.7
West Virginia vs Buffalo: -6.7
West Virginia vs Maryland: -11.0
West Virginia vs Kentucky: +9.2
Oklahoma State vs Oregon: +4.2

Average: +0.4

Conclusion:
The Big 12's tournament performances last year were almost an exact match to KenPom's expectations. Some games were better, some worse, but in 12 games, the Big XII teams played defense right in line with their season long rankings. If you want to argue that scheduling caused their season long defensive ratings to become inflated, then we should have seen them underperform once the Big Dance started and they began playing only non-conf opponents on neutral floors. The fact that the 12 games in the Big Dance are very much in line with the overall rankings helps to confirm the validity of the overall rankings.

Basically, Big 12 teams were ranked as quality defenses entering the tournament, and they performed as such in their tournament games. As far as last year goes, the NCAA Tournament helped to confirm that the Big 12 was full of quality defensive teams.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Are you trying to tell me that KU lost 4 (and almost all five) of those games because they just happen to have a bad night every time they play an MVC team?

During that same time period, WSU is 2-7 vs the top 100 when playing regular season games in Florida or Hawaii. What does this mean? I have no idea!!!!!

Sometimes a small sample size is just a small sample size. Odd things happen.

[ShockerFever]

During that same time period, WSU is 2-7 vs the top 100 when playing regular season games in Florida or Hawaii. What does this mean? I have no idea!!!!!

Sometimes a small sample size is just a small sample size. Odd things happen.

Small sample size over a long time period though.

Are injuries figured into that record btw?

[Cdizzle]

Let's look at KU vs New Mexico State from last year's tournament. New Mexico State was a slightly better than average offensive team (ranked 124th nationally).

2015 D1 average - 102 pts per 100 possessions.
2015 Kansas - Defensive Efficiency: 91.7 (10th nationally)
KU’s expected defensive efficiency when adjusted for playing vs New Mexico State: 93.9

In the round of 64, KU won 75-56 in a game with 61 possessions. KU’s defensive efficiency for that game: 91.8 (slightly better than expectations)

Shorthand, I could describe KU’s defensive performance vs New Mexico State as follows:
KU vs New Mexico State: -2.1

Using that shorthand format, here are all the Big 12 Tourney games from last year:

KU vs New Mexico State: -2.1
KU vs Wichita State:+9.6
OU vs Albany: +8.3
OU vs Dayton: +4.2
OU vs Michigan State: +9.1
Baylor vs Georgia State: -4.0
Iowa State vs UAB: -11.7
Texas vs Butler: -4.7
West Virginia vs Buffalo: -6.7
West Virginia vs Maryland: -11.0
West Virginia vs Kentucky: +9.2
Oklahoma State vs Oregon: +4.2

Average: +0.4

Conclusion:
The Big 12's tournament performances last year were almost an exact match to KenPom's expectations. Some games were better, some worse, but in 12 games, the Big XII teams played defense right in line with their season long rankings. If you want to argue that scheduling caused their season long defensive ratings to become inflated, then we should have seen them underperform once the Big Dance started and they began playing only non-conf opponents on neutral floors. The fact that the 12 games in the Big Dance are very much in line with the overall rankings helps to confirm the validity of the overall rankings.

Basically, Big 12 teams were ranked as quality defenses entering the tournament, and they performed as such in their tournament games. As far as last year goes, the NCAA Tournament helped to confirm that the Big 12 was full of quality defensive teams.

Fair enough. But then why did they go 5-7? Especially given the seeding advantage? Small sample size? I could believe that, but it's kindof adding up over the past few years.

One could argue that this actually helps the case against the B12, or against the metric itself. The regular season metrics said the B12 teams were good defensively. The post season metrics said the B12 teams played the same level of good defense. In the post season they had a 42% win percentage. What was it during the regular season? I would guess some 30% higher. Doesn't this point to a potential flaw in the metrics?

[MoValley John]

My brain hurts.