Games of Interest (2015-16 Edition)

[Cdizzle]

We see it every year. The Big12 plays an aesthetically pleasing brand of basketball. And it allows them to boatrace a lot of lesser teams, and non-defensive minded teams in the non-con every year.

And then they play some solid junkyard mid-major squad in the tourney, get locked up, score 12 points less than their average and lose by like 13 or so.

Until someone in that league learns to play defense, they won't have a very good shot at winning a natty. You can ride a good/great offense that gets hot to an E8 or F4. Not likely to ride it that far and then keep it going 2 more games.

[proshox]

We see it every year. The Big12 plays an aesthetically pleasing brand of basketball. And it allows them to boatrace a lot of lesser teams, and non-defensive minded teams in the non-con every year.

And then they play some solid junkyard mid-major squad in the tourney, get locked up, score 12 points less than their average and lose by like 13 or so.

Until someone in that league learns to play defense, they won't have a very good shot at winning a natty. You can ride a good/great offense that gets hot to an E8 or F4. Not likely to ride it that far and then keep it going 2 more games.

See West Virginia - http://kenpom.com/

Number 2 ranked defense has caused problems within the B12.

[pie n eye]

See West Virginia - http://kenpom.com/

Number 2 ranked defense has caused problems within the B12.

The thing about WVU, kind of like VCU, is that if you can break the press their half court defense isn't that great.

[WstateU]

Buddy's my favorite non-WSU player; he's incredible offensively, however he can be a turnover machine at times. Excessive turnovers will likely keep him from receiving national player of the year awards. I'll take Fred and Ron over Buddy any day; they may not match up athletically, but in my opinion, both are better overall players at the collegiate level... Buddy's game should fit well in the NBA. Regardless, Buddy's a joy to watch and a genuine good guy...

http://m.swtimes.com/sports/sooners-basketball-buddy-hield-s-turnovers-problematic

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

KenPom defensive ranks

Big 12 - Avg = 47
2, 8, 13, 23, 46, 56, 65, 70, 76, 113

ACC - Avg = 92
1, 28, 31, 33, 36, 64, 72, 77, 88, 120, 126, 137, 155, 200, 213

Big 10 - Avg = 95
5, 12, 26, 34, 41, 55, 63, 110, 114, 115, 134, 173, 207, 241

Wichita State: 24

I just don't understand the "Big 12 doesn't play any defense" thought process. The numbers don't back it up.

[ShockdaWorld]

KenPom defensive ranks

Big 12 Teams - Avg = 47
2, 8, 13, 23, 46, 56, 65, 70, 76, 113

ACC Teams - Avg = 92
1, 28, 31, 33, 36, 64, 72, 77, 88, 120, 126, 137, 155, 200, 213

Wichita State: 24

I just don't understand the "Big 12 doesn't play any defense" thought process. The numbers don't back it up.

I'm obviously not as versed in the KenPom and other numbers as you are Jamar. I'm just going by my eye test, and it doesn't look like they play much defense, and when tourney time rolls around, they all seem to score significantly less than they do during their conference season.

[pie n eye]

KenPom defensive ranks

Big 12 - Avg = 47
2, 8, 13, 23, 46, 56, 65, 70, 76, 113

ACC - Avg = 92
1, 28, 31, 33, 36, 64, 72, 77, 88, 120, 126, 137, 155, 200, 213

Big 10 - Avg = 95
5, 12, 26, 34, 41, 55, 63, 110, 114, 115, 134, 173, 207, 241

Wichita State: 24

I just don't understand the "Big 12 doesn't play any defense" thought process. The numbers don't back it up.

What's the non con SOS for all of those numbers? Where did the numbers play their games, home or away?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Take OU for example.

Oklahoma held Wisconsin to 48 points. That's the only game the Badgers have been held under 50. They've only been held under 60 on 3 other occasions.
Oklahoma held Villanova (on a neutral court) to 55 points. The Wildcats have been held to under 60 only 2 other times. They've scored 70+ on 13 different occasions.

You don't have those types of results by "not playing" defense.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

What's the non con SOS for all of those numbers? Where did the numbers play their games, home or away?

The kenpom ranks incorporate opponent's offensive ability when determining defensive efficiency, so SOS is baked in already. I'm not 100% sure if home/away is part of efficiency ranks.

[RoyalShock]

Take OU for example.

Oklahoma held Wisconsin to 48 points. That's the only game the Badgers have been held under 50. They've only been held under 60 on 3 other occasions.
Oklahoma held Villanova (on a neutral court) to 55 points. The Wildcats have been held to under 60 only 2 other times. They've scored 70+ on 13 different occasions.

You don't have those types of results by "not playing" defense.

Are those defensive ratings independent of pace? That has a significant impact on points scored.

[ShockdaWorld]

We're just going to have to disagree. I'm sure with a few minutes of research I could see some Big12 teams giving up big numbers as well. Also, any team can bear down on defense, as it appears you are saying they did against Wiscy (whose a shell of their former selves) and Villanova. Maybe they're better than most Big12 teams at defense. I haven't seen it if that's the case. I'd like to see how their numbers change the first weekend of the NCAA tournament over the last couple of years. I say the first weekend, because that's the only time very many of them play.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Are those defensive ratings independent of pace? That has a significant impact on points scored.

The numbers are adjusted for pace. The number that is calculated, prior to being ranked across D1, is supposed to give the expected number of points that would be scored per 100 possessions against an average D1 team.

The Average D1 defensive efficiency is 103.1, meaning the average team would give up 103 points every 100 possessions vs an average team.

Big 12 Efficiency
Kansas - 91.2 (ranked 8th nationally)
OU - 92.3 (ranked 13th nationally)
and so on

Oklahoma held Villanova to 55 points on 71 possessions. That extrapolates to 77.5 per 100. Villanova is a good offensive team, so that was a stellar defensive performance, just as one example.

Interestingly, the Big 12 is ranked 17th among conferences this year in terms of tempo or pace. Very much dead average.

[Kel Varnsen]

I've said it before and I'll say it again; the NCAA tournament is such a small sample size in the grand scheme of things.

351 teams in college basketball x 31 games = 10,881/2 = ~5,440 games played each year. Of those 5,440 games, only 67 are played in the tournament (1.2%). On a per team basis, each team will play 14-18 conference games and probably around 10-12 non-conference games, plus 1 or 2 in their conference tournament. So teams would likely play anywhere from 28 to 34 games before the NCAA tournament. So one tournament game is anywhere from 2.9% to 3.5% of the sample size that the entire season is. The "eye test" is very misleading because each individual has their own biases they are looking to confirm or deny and tend to take one extreme example that may not be representative of the entire body of work and apply it to the whole. What I love about sites like KenPom and Sagarin is that they remove that element of judgment.

I know what you're saying; "Yeah, Kel, but the NCAA tournament is the real test where you're pitted against good teams". Fair point, but again, one off night or one hot shooting night by your opponent and you're done. That 2.9% or 3.5% of your season builds the narrative for a lot of people, which logically makes little sense.

KenPom does a thing on each conference's page (if you have the subscription) where he shows the rankings and where a particular conference stands. The Big 12 has been in the top 3 pretty much every year dating back to 2008, with the exception being 2013 when they were sixth (makes sense given that was the last year of the old Big East with teams like Syracuse and Louisville).

In Sagarin this year, the Big 12 has 7 teams in the top 50, with KU-OU-WVU as 2-3-4. The same group of teams is 2-3-5 in KenPom. Other teams in Sagarin's top 50 include Iowa State, Baylor, Texas, and Kansas State.

I guess you could say that the Big 12 is overrated or isn't very good or whatever, but objective metrics created by some of the most respected minds in college basketball statistics do not substantiate that claim in the slightest.

[ShockdaWorld]

I've said it before and I'll say it again; the NCAA tournament is such a small sample size in the grand scheme of things.

351 teams in college basketball x 31 games = 10,881/2 = ~5,440 games played each year. Of those 5,440 games, only 67 are played in the tournament (1.2%). On a per team basis, each team will play 14-18 conference games and probably around 10-12 non-conference games, plus 1 or 2 in their conference tournament. So teams would likely play anywhere from 28 to 34 games before the NCAA tournament. So one tournament game is anywhere from 2.9% to 3.5% of the sample size that the entire season is. The "eye test" is very misleading because each individual has their own biases they are looking to confirm or deny and tend to take one extreme example that may not be representative of the entire body of work and apply it to the whole. What I love about sites like KenPom and Sagarin is that they remove that element of judgment.

I know what you're saying; "Yeah, Kel, but the NCAA tournament is the real test where you're pitted against good teams". Fair point, but again, one off night or one hot shooting night by your opponent and you're done. That 2.9% or 3.5% of your season builds the narrative for a lot of people, which logically makes little sense.

KenPom does a thing on each conference's page (if you have the subscription) where he shows the rankings and where a particular conference stands. The Big 12 has been in the top 3 pretty much every year dating back to 2008, with the exception being 2013 when they were sixth (makes sense given that was the last year of the old Big East with teams like Syracuse and Louisville).

In Sagarin this year, the Big 12 has 7 teams in the top 50, with KU-OU-WVU as 2-3-4. The same group of teams is 2-3-5 in KenPom. Other teams in Sagarin's top 50 include Iowa State, Baylor, Texas, and Kansas State.

I guess you could say that the Big 12 is overrated or isn't very good or whatever, but objective metrics created by some of the most respected minds in college basketball statistics do not substantiate that claim in the slightest.

I agree that one game is a very small percentage of a season, but when 5 out of 6 (or whatever the number was last year) of a conference's teams don't make it out of the first weekend, that's more than one game. When a team loses to 4 out of 5 MVC opponents over a 6-8 year period, it's not one game. I know those numbers aren't accurate, as I'm unable to research right not, but they're close enough to get the point across. I have a lot of respect for the KenPom and Sagarin and things of that sort. It doesn't mean that those numbers will translate when playing against competition other than each other. As I said, I'd like to see how their numbers change the first weekend of the tournament as compared to their conference season. I'd also like to see how their non-con numbers compare to their conference numbers. I may very well be surprised.

[Cdizzle]

The Big12 still can't play defense.