AP and Coaches Poll Watch Thread (2015-16 Edition)

[rrshock]

USC and the big, bad PAC12 still use travel partners to save money?

Big 12 does it occasionally too. Why not do it? Athletics arent cheap by any means.

[Cdizzle]

Why not do it? Athletics arent cheap by any means.

Because Friday night basketball games are lame.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

So you think WSU could drop a couple spots with a 2-0 week? With all of the havoc going on around them?

I doubt it.

South Carolina probably jumps us if they beat UK at home this weekend. That loss may or may not be enough to drop Kentucky below us.

However, there is an excellent chance we leap many of the following teams next week:

#15 A&M (@ LSU on Saturday, lost @ Alabama Wednesday)
#16 SMU (vs. Gonzaga on Saturday, lost vs. Tulsa Wednesday)
#20 Providence (vs. Georgetown on Saturday, lost @ Marquette Wednesday)
#22 Kentucky (@ South Carolina on Saturday, won vs. Georgia Wednesday)
#23 USC (@ Arizona State on Friday, @ Arizona on Sunday)
#24 Texas (@ Iowa State on Saturday, lost @ Oklahoma on Monday)

While theoretically possible that we could drop out following a 2 win week, I'd put the odds very, very, very low. We are far more likely to end up at #22 or 23 than #26.

I sure hope some of those teams in the #15-#24 range lose this weekend, but only Providence and Texas have any chance of dropping behind WSU if they win this weekend.

If Providence wins, I'd put it at 50/50 whether they drop far enough to fall below WSU.
If Texas wins, I don't think a 3 point loss @OU hurts if you pair it with a road win @ISU in the same week.

A close loss by Kentucky might not drop them enough, while it would surely allow South Carolina to jump WSU
Notre Dame has a good shot to pass WSU if they beat Louisville at home. They already picked up a road win earlier this week @Clemson.
Duke WILL pass WSU if they beat Virginia at home. They already beat Louisville earlier this week. 2 huge wins and they catapult up.

I agree that the odds are likely that a few ranked teams lose this weekend and WSU moves up overall, but I can easily also see a scenario where WSU gets jumped by more teams than they jump and falls to 26 or 27.

[Dave Stalwart]

I agree that the odds are likely that a few ranked teams lose this weekend and WSU moves up overall, but I can easily also see a scenario where WSU gets jumped by more teams than they jump and falls to 26 or 27.

and if that does happen, it's important to remember that it's all about the vote totals being spread out a lot. We would be "26" with almost equal votes as several teams in front of us. It's not about WSU "dropping" in perception necessarily. It just means for one week we could be on the wrong side of the log jam that will inevitably sort itself out. In South Carolina's case, you can't watch them beat LSU and UK this week and then keep them behind WSU who beat UNI and Drake.

What would really be great is if everybody around us would train wreck and we can be the beneficiary and move back up quickly.

[Play Angry]

Here are the KenPom odds for the remaining games for the teams I laid out above:

#24 Texas @ #14 Iowa State (Texas odds to lose: 71%)
#23 USC @ Arizona State (USC odds to lose: 48%), @ #17 Arizona (USC odds to lose: 73%)
#22 Kentucky @ South Carolina (Kentucky odds to lose: 49%)
#20 Providence vs. Georgetown (Providence odds to lose: 33%)
#16 SMU vs. Gonzaga (SMU odds to lose: 29%)
#15 Texas A&M @ LSU (A&M odds to lose: 47%)

[WSUwatcher]

...and if that does happen, it's important to remember that it's all about the vote totals being spread out a lot. We would be "26" with almost equal votes as several teams in front of us. It's not about WSU "dropping" in perception necessarily. It just means for one week we could be on the wrong side of the log jam that will inevitably sort itself out.

That's especially true of South Carolina in the AP, which was the odd man out at 26th last week, a total of FOUR poll points behind WSU (132 to 128). So it almost happened last time. On the other hand, in the coaches' delegate poll, WSU was on the wrong end of a close grouping, with Indiana #22 (119 poll points), USC #23 (105), and WSU #24 (91) -- 14 points is not a huge margin. (And it isn't that far back to #25, either, where Texas checked in another 22 points back (69); or to the wrong side of the tracks where Notre Dame finished #26 just another six points back at 63, and Gonzaga another 10 back at 53 for 27th).

Polls frequently have groups of teams closely clustered, and it doesn't take a huge switch to move them around several spots.

[Stickboy46]

34 in the AP poll with 14 points still

[shocker3]

28 in Coaches poll with 30 points. Not too bad.

[_kai_]

http://shockerhoops.net/index.php/2016/02/15/shockers-out-of-the-top-25/

[Rocky Mountain Shock]

Surprised we're still getting votes. That's somewhat reassuring.

[wusphlash]

Surprised we're still getting votes. That's somewhat reassuring.

There's no one more critical of any team than their most ardent fans.

[ShockdaWorld]

There's no one more critical of any team than their most ardent fans.

I disagree. I'm much more critical of KU, and I am FAR from a KU fan. Lol

[Dave Stalwart]

I was thinking how there are already several top 25 teams with 7 or more losses, and there may be a few more after this weekend. Even in the top 10, there are teams with 4-6 losses and no truly dominant looking teams.

Point being, I can fairly safely say that this year the winner of the title WILL be a team with a lot of losses. It is wide open. WSU's 20-7 record doesn't stand out at all and we absolutely have the talent to be dangerous...and our guys have already done it before.

[WSUwatcher]

Hard to imagine that too many voters saw WSU today, but if they did -- and especially if they also saw the Shocks' big jump in KenPom (up to #10 right now, with a gain of about .01 in their rating, which is huge; and commensurate gains in ADjO and AdjD: #67 and up half a point on offense, and back to #1 by improving 0.6 on defense, both also big moves for one game) -- the Shocks are likely to reappear on some ballots from which they had dropped.

This is the right time of year for the afterburners to be kicking in.

[ROOT ANGRY!]

Hard to imagine that too many voters saw WSU today, but if they did -- and especially if they also saw the Shocks' big jump in KenPom (up to #10 right now, with a gain of about .01 in their rating, which is huge; and commensurate gains in ADjO and AdjD: #67 and up half a point on offense, and back to #1 by improving 0.6 on defense, both also big moves for one game) -- the Shocks are likely to reappear on some ballots from which they had dropped.

This is the right time of year for the afterburners to be kicking in.

agreed.
just keep winning