2015-16 Media love thread

[proshox]

This argument happens far too often on shockernet.

Do you believe we are truly a fringe top-25 team? If so, I think you haven't watched enough basketball this year. Teams are bad this year, and we've been really good for the most part. If you believe we are actually closer to a top 10 team, then a better conference is better for us. If we had a chance to play top ten teams in conference this year, we would shoot up the rankings.

The bottom line: We were a skeleton of the team we are now when we lost our preseason games (three of which occurred in four days). We will end up with a worse seed in the tournament than we would have if we had been playing good teams when we were healthy (i.e., conference play).

Edit to add: if you think our non con was a disaster, look at Creighton, and yet some people are saying they're a bubble team because of their conference play. That opportunity wouldn't have happened for them in the valley.

Edited for math - thank you JH4P

I think we are capable of being a top 15 team, but top 15 teams are going to drop a fair share of road games against good competition. With this year's non-conference record, we would need to dominate our conference season to get in as an at large. The tougher the competition, the less likely that is.

Assume the following schedule - what would our likely record be and do you think we get in the dance as an at large:

@ St John's

#16 Villanova

Georgetown

@ Seton Hall

Providence

@ DePaul

#18 Butler

@ Georgetown

Seton Hall

@ #3 Villanova

DePaul

#5 Xavier

I would guess we would be 10-2 going into a final stretch of:

@ Marquette

@ Butler

Marquette

St John's

@ #20 Providence

@ #5 Xavier

I project a 3 & 3 finish. Total conference record of 13-5. Final record on 21-10 plus conference tournament.

Do we get in? Yes, with a couple of conference tournament wins

Are we ranked at the end of the year?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

@proshox, the Big East plays 18 conference games, not 16. If WSU played in the Big East this year, after going 5-5 in non-con, I can guarantee you that 12-6, 17-11 overall, would have the Shox on the right side of the bubble. More likely, they would go 13-5 or 14-4 and be a 6-9 seed.

Seton Hall is a great example. non con RPI 72 (vs WSU at 75). Realtimerpi.com shows that if Seton Hall finishes 12-6 in conference, their projected RPI would be 37. That's near lock status my friend.

13-5 gets Seton Hall to an RPI of 28.

[proshox]

If you think a healthy WSU would do so poorly in the Big East as to end up in the NIT, you make @KC Shox look like an optimist.

Creighton's non-con was a much bigger disaster than WSU's. Their non-con RPI sits at 161. WSU's sits at 75. Creighton is now 7-5 in conference and approaching the bubble. If WSU played in the big East, at 7-5, they would be safely in right now. More likely, they would be something like 9-3, 14-8 overall, and looking at a 7-8 seed. Guess what? That's exactly the seed range they are looking at now via the MVC.

One more example. Texas. Non-con RPI is 51. They are now 7-4 in the Big 12 and likely 1-2 seed lines ahead of WSU. Everyone (KU, OU, etc.) has at least 3 losses in Big 12 play already. 7-4 would seem very plausible if WSU was in that league. Texas 1-2 seed line advantage comes from their slightly better non-con.

Different conference = different W/L record but similar seeding. Normally I find myself fighting off the "MVC is a huge disadvantage" crowd. @proshox:, your "MVC is a huge advantage" argument is just as wrong.

I think you typically understand poll mechanics and how that influences reputation. We would take more losses giving people less reason to recognize underlying ability.

I assume our offensive and defensive numbers are a little inflated right now. The MVC teams are not capable of exposing / attacking WSU's weaknesses.

[proshox]

@proshox:, the Big East plays 18 conference games, not 16. If WSU played in the Big East this year, after going 5-5 in non-con, I can guarantee you that 12-6, 17-11 overall, would have the Shox on the right side of the bubble. More likely, they would go 13-5 or 14-4 and be a 6-9 seed.

I shouldn't multi-task...

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I think you typically understand poll mechanics and how that influences reputation. We would take more losses giving people less reason to recognize underlying ability.

...and more quality wins to balance out those losses. Did you not notice Texas went from 1 point in the AP poll all the way to 199 points and the #24 spot in one week? All it took was one good week with 2 solid wins.

[ShockerFever]

I hereby sentence Myron to dinner and a movie with @ShockerFever:. That should straighten him out.

I'll make arrangements at Emerson Biggins West.

[_kai_]

We will see if Medcalf engages me on Twitter since I asked if the #12 kenpom ranked team, the #51 adjO and #6 adjD team is undeserving of 68 other teams? It's insanity. It's idiocy. It's one of the dumbest things I've ever read in my life. At this point, there is no way WSU isn't an at-large team. Now if we lose to Missouri State or some other horrible team, ok. Let's talk about winning the conference tournament, MAYBE. Finishing your conference slate with just 2 losses regardless of conference is still pretty damn good in my books.

[wushock27]

We will see if Medcalf engages me on Twitter since I asked if the #12 kenpom ranked team, the #51 adjO and #6 adjD team is undeserving of 68 other teams? It's insanity. It's idiocy. It's one of the dumbest things I've ever read in my life. At this point, there is no way WSU isn't an at-large team. Now if we lose to Missouri State or some other horrible team, ok. Let's talk about winning the conference tournament, MAYBE. Finishing your conference slate with just 2 losses regardless of conference is still pretty damn good in my books.

Medcalf has always spoke up on WSU's defense in the past, and has typically pro-WSU. He follows me on twitter, so i sent him a DM asking for a candid response..here is what he wrote back to me.

The conference isn't that strong. There's more room to fall than rise. We don't know what the committee will think about the stretch without Van Vleet.
They aren't a lock. No way. And they can't get any more signature wins. Wichita State is a good team. Guaranteed tourney team? Who can say in earl Feb when they don't have any more significant quality win opportunities but an abundance of chances to suffer bad losses.
And I didn't say they wouldn't make it. I said Arch Madness is their only guarantee.

[ShockdaWorld]

Of course. There's no guarantee we don't go out and lose 4 games and the first round at arch madness. There's also no guarantee a semi doesn't come slamming through my office and I don't get a chance to see it, so yes, Arch Madness is the only GUARANTEE, but it's far from the only way we get in.

[shockmonster]

We will see if Medcalf engages me on Twitter since I asked if the #12 kenpom ranked team, the #51 adjO and #6 adjD team is undeserving of 68 other teams? It's insanity. It's idiocy. It's one of the dumbest things I've ever read in my life. At this point, there is no way WSU isn't an at-large team. Now if we lose to Missouri State or some other horrible team, ok. Let's talk about winning the conference tournament, MAYBE. Finishing your conference slate with just 2 losses regardless of conference is still pretty damn good in my books.

We know that the committee poo poo's the RPI more and more each year. It would be interesting to know if they value the kenpom and adjusted rankings more as a metric to compare teams. The eye test should not be the only or even the most important ranking when comparing teams. The eye test and RPI should be one of the pieces of the puzzle to compare but the kenpom in my opinion is a better metric to compare.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Nobody has ever finished top 20 in KenPom and missed the tourney. 4 teams in 14 years of his rankings have finished top 30 and missed. Those include examples such as 2004 Florida State, who collapsed and went 6-12 in the 2004 part of the 03-04 season and got shipped off to Wichita for a memorable NIT game.

WSU is sitting at KenPom #12 today and winning by 20+ pts a night. Enough already with the bubble talk.

[ShockdaWorld]

Nobody has ever finished top 20 in KenPom and missed the tourney. 4 teams in 14 years of his rankings have finished top 30 and missed. Those include examples such as 2004 Florida State, who collapsed and went 6-12 in the 2004 part of the 03-04 season and got shipped off to Wichita for a memorable NIT game.

WSU is sitting at KenPom #12 today and winning by 20+ pts a night. Enough already with the bubble talk.

This is what I'm talking about Jamar. These little tid-bits you are able to come up with as quickly as you do is just mind-blowing to me. And much appreciated.

[_kai_]

I said Arch Madness is their only guarantee.

And he could say that about Bradley too.

[SPEShockAlum]

Not to completely derail the conversation because it's not necessarily media "love", but did anyone else catch this?

http://www.kansas.com/sports/college/wichita-state/shockwaves/article59754151.html

[Signman]

Nobody has ever finished top 20 in KenPom and missed the tourney. 4 teams in 14 years of his rankings have finished top 30 and missed. Those include examples such as 2004 Florida State, who collapsed and went 6-12 in the 2004 part of the 03-04 season and got shipped off to Wichita for a memorable NIT game.

WSU is sitting at KenPom #12 today and winning by 20+ pts a night. Enough already with the bubble talk.

Are you using KenPom's pre-tourney calculation or the final calculation?