WSU VERSUS NOTRE DAME PREDICTIONS AND PREGAME DISCUSSIONS

[Wild Heiny]

I have seen a lot of comparisons to Indiana and one comparison to UNI. ND is much more like UNI on offense than they are like Indiana. Their guards will play downhill and are capable at making shots from the perimeter. They have two other guys that can score from deep. ND will play slow and will score. Their turnover rate is somewhat deceptive as no one in the ACC tries to turn you over. Having seen them a few times I actually believe that they are prone to turnovers. The biggest difference between UNI and ND is that Auguste is not even close to be as good as Tuttle. I expect Fred to defend Jackson, but won't be surprised if he gets his chance at Grant either. The size difference is a bit more than I like, but FVV is very good at negating this advantage. The other glaring difference between UNI an ND is that ND will not guard you. We should score at a high rate against his pourous defense. The one thing that WSU must do against ND is to defend without fouling. I am not sure if I have ever seen ND miss a FT. ND will not foul so the margin at the line has to be narrow. I have seen ND fall behind in the first half big on several occassions this season only to come charging back in the second half. FVV will be the best closer they will play all season and if they fall behind by 20+ to us, book it game over.

I think if both teams play their best games that we win by a few points. Playing 5 guys is not typically a successful recipe against WSU as I believe we wear teams down with our constant ball pressure, this I believe will be the difference.

[im4wsu]

I have seen a lot of comparisons to Indiana and one comparison to UNI. ND is much more like UNI on offense than they are like Indiana. Their guards will play downhill and are capable at making shots from the perimeter. They have two other guys that can score from deep. ND will play slow and will score. Their turnover rate is somewhat deceptive as no one in the ACC tries to turn you over. Having seen them a few times I actually believe that they are prone to turnovers. The biggest difference between UNI and ND is that Auguste is not even close to be as good as Tuttle. I expect Fred to defend Jackson, but won't be surprised if he gets his chance at Grant either. The size difference is a bit more than I like, but FVV is very good at negating this advantage. The other glaring difference between UNI an ND is that ND will not guard you. We should score at a high rate against his pourous defense. The one thing that WSU must do against ND is to defend without fouling. I am not sure if I have ever seen ND miss a FT. ND will not foul so the margin at the line has to be narrow. I have seen ND fall behind in the first half big on several occassions this season only to come charging back in the second half. FVV will be the best closer they will play all season and if they fall behind by 20+ to us, book it game over.

I think if both teams play their best games that we win by a few points. Playing 5 guys is not typically a successful recipe against WSU as I believe we wear teams down with our constant ball pressure, this I believe will be the difference.

Good stuff. Thanks. ND shoots FTs 4.2% better than WSU and fouls 2.6 fewer times. WSU shoots 0.3 more FT per game. The FT % translates into 1 point favoring ND.

[Dan]

What's the over and under for the amount of time that elapses in the 1st half before both Darius and Shaq are benched with their first 2 fouls?

[Dan]

Hilarious video of Notre Dame walkon interviewing another walkon after the game (not sure how to link to the exact video)

https://twitter.com/WalkOnFrat

[Slalomshocker]

What's the over and under for the amount of time that elapses in the 1st half before both Darius and Shaq are benched with their first 2 fouls?

Game time or real time? TV timeouts a what 5min each? I say game time, 6 mins should just about cover it. real time... lets go with 13mins. Darius should just ask to start the game with 2 fouls and make it easier on the refs.

[Kochaddict]

Shockers by 5

[The 'hut]

What's the over and under for the amount of time that elapses in the 1st half before both Darius and Shaq are benched with their first 2 fouls?

If you follow Bob Lutz on twitter, he tweeted out during the KU game. "Darius and Shaq were born with 2 fouls". True Dat!

[Shock Top]

News conference on 2022 right now.

[AndShock]

If you follow Bob Lutz on twitter, he tweeted out during the KU game. "Darius and Shaq were born with 2 fouls". True Dat!

He's asked 4 questions about fouling so far in the press conference. Dude is obsessed.

[The 'hut]

This match up is interesting but there are a few things that allow me to believe this will be close.
1. Bill Self, like most coaches who don't see the Shocks regularly, was utterly amazed by the roster vs. play heights in his post game interview. The Shocks tend to "surprise" non familiar opponents with their athletic abilities.
2. The Shockers get everyone's best effort at creating a difficult environment on the road. A large ND contingency at a theoretical neutral site won't be a factor. Throw in the "respect" fans from UK from last year, and it should be good, but not overwhelming for this group.
3. I really wasn't that impressed with the quality of play on Sunday, but it was overshadowed by the effort. I think the Shockers have a better game, particularly from a rebounding and turnover standpoint, available for Thursday. Eliminate 2 made 3's and all of the stats were pedestrian.
4. The freshmen and Bush have tasted tournament play. Their comfort level should improve, and Zach Brown arrived there a little earlier than the rest.
5. I am obviously not on the team, but how could anyone even contemplate the Shocks are looking past ND? Are you kidding me? The ACC tournament champions and...they're Notre Freaking Dame! Another team that will never, ever darken the tunnels of the Chuck. And it's the Sweet Sixteen! Motivation should be high.

This will be fun.

[kochHead]

Hilarious video of Notre Dame walkon interviewing another walkon after the game (not sure how to link to the exact video)

https://twitter.com/WalkOnFrat

Check out the Gonzaga walk-ons! They are great.

[OregonShocker]

Looking forward to the game and the new pre-game ritual at our house. Traegered Jayhawk wings and Arrogant Bastard Ale!

I'll have to try that here!

[NDZibby]

Few things to add as an ND fan who needs a fix of basketball talk (and is counting down hours/minutes until 7:15):

1) Another site to check out for good (mostly balanced) ND coverage is OneFootDown, ND's SBNation blog. They post a ton of different stuff there and the comment section is decent (although even now, there might be more football comments than hoops. Such is life with ND).

2) Most ND fans have PTSD with the hoops team, myself included. If/when you go on a little run tomorrow night, you can find some enjoyment, but hopefully not too much, in watching all the ND fans flip out like the sky is falling. We've had good teams at times over the last 10 years, but this is the first S16 run since 2003. Some blame Brey, some take the other side and argue that most of the teams weren't that talented/physical, Brey just maximized what he got out of those teams during the regular season and ran into cold shooting in the tourny. Either way, most ND people, players included, are petrified of the first weekend of the tourny, so there's a bit of a house-money aspect to tomorrow's game for the Irish. How that psychology works out on the court is anyone's guess.

3) All that said, this team is different in many ways from it's predecessors. You've all noted that we take a lot of 3s, but one thing to consider is that this is the first team we've had in a long time that doesn't NEED to take a ton of 3s. In the ACC Semi's against Duke, they extended their defense to the perimeter and we took eight triples the entire night. I believe we had a 16 pt lead without making one. We shot 6 against Butler and survived. I can't give one concrete reason for it, but at least some of it is because this team uses more drive+kick to create the open looks, vs the previous iterations using more side to side ball movement. Grant/DJ are good enough to drive and make good decisions (as seen by the low TO rate) as to whether to get a shot up or kick back for the 3s -- You can see this in our assist rate, which is average on the year, while previous good Brey teams were always in the top 10 in the country. Guys who can go to the rack make a huge difference! Duke gave us the open looks inside, so kickouts were sparse, as we're the made triples.

Additionally, this team, unlike many of the previous versions, has multiple ways to score. In the past, we've been heavily reliant on one or two key players, who good defensive teams could easily clamp down on. This year, it's a much more balanced attack with a bunch of guys who are a great shooters, but who can also take it to the rim. We're #1 in the country at 2pt FG% -- Brey's teams haven't been above 45th in his entire tenure.

4) Wichita St will probably slow ND down to somewhere around 1.05-1.08 pts/possession. This is a big drop off from normal and would be the 5th worst performance of our year (Worst was the 3-22 from 3 game vs Syracuse, #2 was the revenge thrashing at Duke when the game was over about 4 minutes in, and #3/#4 were Butler and Virginia, who statistically have better D's than WSU). If we played this 10 times, that's about where we'd land, but good luck figuring out if tomorrow is a + or - night shooting wise until about 9:15pm.

5) There's been a bunch of people saying that ND hasn't faced a D like WSU's (which, besides UVa, who we generally struggled with, is true). And a few people countering with "and WSU hasn't seen an O like ND's (also true). My general thought when you see immovable object/irresistible force matchups is assume they cancel each other out and then look elsewhere. As a result, my only true prediction: This game will be won on the WSU O/ND D end of the court.

6) As you guys have noted, our defense is not good (for a S16 team). That said, some of our D issues have largely been effort based and just from watching, it appears things have been cleaned up a little bit since our last loss (8 gms ago). This checks out when you grab the KenPom numbers from those games -- playing good competition for almost the entire stretch, we've held teams to 6% below their season output.

Gm	Team	Pts	Sea Pts	+/-
NCAAT	Butler	0.97	1.063	-9%
NCAAT	NE	1.05	1.058	-1%
ACCT	UNC	1.19	1.156	3%
ACCT	Duke	0.97	1.222	-21%
ACCT	Miami	1	1.102	-9%
Reg Sea	Clem	1.12	1.015	10%
Reg Sea	Lou	0.94	1.068	-12%
Reg Sea	Syr	0.92	1.031	-11%
	Total	1.02	1.089375	-6%

It's worth noting that in WSU's last 4 important games (skipping SIU), WSU has held teams to....about 6% below their average! Please don't take this as me saying the two are equal, just that ND has played better than the season long numbers suggest when the need to do so has been there. If ND can do the same tomorrow night and hold WSU to 5-6% below their season average, the Irish will still be playing on Saturday. If not, the run ends and I become a Shocker fan for Saturday.

Should be a fun one -- hope everyone stays healthy and we get some good drama to kick off the S16. Go Irish!
-NDZibby

[AZ Shocker]

The ACC tournament champions and...they're Notre Freaking Dame! Another team that will never, ever darken the tunnels of the Chuck. And it's the Sweet Sixteen! Motivation should be high.

This will be fun.

1991 (Yes the Drought known as the Cohen Years) - The Fighting Irish left Levitt Arena with their tails between their legs as our Shockers PREVAILED!!! I was there and remember Digger Phelps and the 5th Pick of the NBA draft LaPhonso Ellis being a bit shell-SHOCKED!!!

[Heinro]

Have they had the WSU and Notre Dame pre-game press conferences yet? I looked for them online and couldn't find them. Anyone have a link?