WSU VERSUS INDIANA PREDICTIONS AND PREGAME DISCUSSIONS

[Shock Top]

(sidenote: I think it's possible prior to the Final Four run this team goes to the NIT, but I think that's a sign of a broken system and not evidence that we should be left out now)

[jdshock]

Sure, act like it's totally far-fetched. Yeah, I think this team gets in prior to the final four. @Rlh04d made some good points about that. But to act like it's out of the realm of possibility does a disservice to just how far HCGM has brought this team. 2010-2011 our RPI was 35. In most categories we were worse than we were this year, but we should've been in the tournament and we were left out. MoState recently was left out with an RPI near top 20. I get that you don't like when people like me always play the disrespect card, but it's naive to act like we have never been disrespected and ignores the entirety of the environment in college athletics.

Regardless, it obviously shouldn't have been in my post at all. It's caused a distraction and I've had to defend the idea that WSU has been disrespected in past years. Why harp on such a tiny aspect of the larger post???

[hoosierweebey]

On paper, WSU will want to play slower than IU. According to Kenpom, WSU plays at the #298 tempo in the nation vs IU's #84. Our tempo this year is even slower than some years, but we are often over #200. I think we know that we are a better half court team than IU, and will play to that strength.

That being said, I think what Marshall is getting at is dispelling the notion that speeding WSU up is a good way to beat us. The fact that we don't play fast is not the same as that we aren't good playing fast. The best example might be our game against Detroit two years ago (who featured current Sacramento Kings guard Ray McCallum Jr.)

Here was Detroit's Kenpom numbers compared to this year's IU squad:

	Adjusted Offense	Adjusted Defense	Tempo
Detroit 2012-13	#24	#209	#21
Indiana 2014-15	#10	#216	#84

And here is how that WSU's Kenpom numbers compared to this year's squad:

	Adjusted Offense	Adjusted Defense	Tempo
Wichita State 2012-13	#30	#25	#209
Wichita State 2014-15	#20	#15	#298

WSU won that game by a score of 94-79. WSU shot 55% from the field in that game and 40% from 3, while taking 13 fewer 3s than Detroit, but 12 more freethrows.

Detroit actually scored 2 more than their season average, shot right near their average from the field (although low from the freethrow line - shooting their average would have given them 4-5 more points, so still a double digit loss), and their two leading scorers had 29 and 25 points on a combined 50% shooting.

In other words, Detroit got exactly the style of game they wanted, played it pretty well, and still lost by 15. Odds are that we will slow down the game and make it a half court affair, but Marshall comments reflect his confidence that his teams can win the fast tempo game if they need to.

Good stuff. I've been consistent in saying that WSU is the better team.

I'm just saying that if WSU plays an optimal strategy they probably win this match-up 7 or 8 times out of 10. If they try and run, help off shooters, settle for jumpers on O, etc... it brings it closer to 60/40.

That's a ten percent swing, but games this time of the year are swung on margins less than that.

You guys are great... depending on work I may pop in tom. If not, it's been fun. Best of luck!

[The Mad Hatter]

Good stuff. I've been consistent in saying that WSU is the better team.

I'm just saying that if WSU plays an optimal strategy they probably win this match-up 7 or 8 times out of 10. If they try and run, help off shooters, settle for jumpers on O, etc... it brings it closer to 60/40.

That's a ten percent swing, but games this time of the year are swung on margins less than that.

You guys are great... depending on work I may pop in tom. If not, it's been fun. Best of luck!

Oh, I don't disagree. We should try to slow it down.

[Royalno5]

The Cutters 74 love that movie
The Hoosiers 68

[Shock Top]

Sure, act like it's totally far-fetched. Yeah, I think this team gets in prior to the final four. @Rlh04d made some good points about that. But to act like it's out of the realm of possibility does a disservice to just how far HCGM has brought this team. 2010-2011 our RPI was 35. In most categories we were worse than we were this year, but we should've been in the tournament and we were left out. MoState recently was left out with an RPI near top 20. I get that you don't like when people like me always play the disrespect card, but it's naive to act like we have never been disrespected and ignores the entirety of the environment in college athletics.

Regardless, it obviously shouldn't have been in my post at all. It's caused a distraction and I've had to defend the idea that WSU has been disrespected in past years. Why harp on such a tiny aspect of the larger post???

Just giving you a little grief. It's all fun and games. :)

[WuDrWu]

Focus on the stripes. It's all about the Hoosiers.

Play Angry, let's go.

[Shock Top]

Play Angry, let's go.

Has 3Gs not put a copyright on that yet? ;)

[shockerofandover0943]

Please, for the love of all that is holy, win this game. The baseball player/coach in me is very uncomfortable with all of the talk about Sunday in other threads (yes, I understand why it is happening).

[shockmonster]

Oh, I don't disagree. We should try to slow it down.

A better word is efficiency than slow it down. We are very EFFICIENT. We will play as fast as we can but we won't do stupid things with the basketball.

[ShockerFever]

I don't have anywhere else to rant about this, so I'm putting it here.

I have to deal with an OU alum and a Duke alum on a daily basis. They both told me today that WSU is the most overseeded team in the tournament. They said WSU should be in the NIT and that if it hadn't been for the Final Four we wouldn't have made the tournament (sidenote: I think it's possible prior to the Final Four run this team goes to the NIT, but I think that's a sign of a broken system and not evidence that we should be left out now).

I bet the OU alum that no one in the Big 12 makes the Elite 8. I think he's delusional enough I could've pushed him to two or three teams at straight up odds and he would've taken it.

ROFL.

Do you work at a special needs school?

[CBB_Fan]

We are actually a really good fast paced team if the opponent pushes us, but we almost never push the tempo unless we get steal. Instead, we send almost everyone crashing for the defensive board, which explains both our outlandish rebounding for our size and our relatively slow pace. If another team tries to run their offense quickly to speed us up, it usually results in bad shots from them and more chances for us to get that easy look we usually forgo. Playing fast also helps prevent Carter or Morris from picking up fouls.

The way teams have beaten us is by attacking the basket for fouls and deliberately working the ball inside every possession of offense. On defense, teams have mainly been successful if they can pressure us in the backcourt to take 5 or so seconds off the clock and stall us with the zone, but in general fast defenses are bad defenses. I am not worried about a game with a fast tempo, because over the last few years we've won almost every game we've scored 70 or more points and all of our vets have experience playing against teams like VCU that go a lot faster than Indiana will.

[AZ Shocker]

Yeah we can play fast if we want too. Fer sure! I'm kinda seeing this game like 76- 64 Shocks winning. Indiana definitely wants to push it but Shocker defense is...well...kinda insane. By them trying to push it and probably taking quick shoots against a tough as nails defense only gives us more opportunities to score ourselves.

[twilly]

You may want to be careful what you wish for. The tempo that IU runs is way faster than anything that WSU has seen. The teams that have tried to play the same tempo have lost. If WSU is smart they slow it down and try to keep it in the 50s and 60s. If it gets to 70 it will not be good for them.

[Play Angry]

lol, no.


Per KenPom, Indiana State, Hawaii and Detroit all run significantly more uptempo offenses than the Hoosiers. All wins for WSU.

IU plays an almost identical pace to Memphis. That is not thoroughbred basketball by any stretch of the imagination.