Drake 70-69 3:41 to go (TV TO)
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2014-15 Games of Interest
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Originally posted by Zubcut View PostI think you're nuts if you don't foul. I read last week where someone did some research on the use of both strategies up to that point in this season. I don't remember the exact numbers but the team that fouled when up by three was undefeated. Something like 83-0. The team that didn't foul LOST THE GAME 12% off the time or something like that. That doesn't even count all the times they hit the three to send it to overtime but lost in OT. If you foul, they have to do three things perfectly: 1) make the first free throw, 2) rebound the second missed free throw and 3) make the putback with limited time, usually a second or two. If you don't foul they only need to make a three from the close college 3 line. Some coaches don't want to do it because they're afraid of being second guessed if fouling backfires. Still the numbers say fouling is by far the safer strategy. Teams need to practice this fouling strategy though. You can't do it too early or too late. Too early and you may give the other team an extra possession. Too late and you run the danger of fouling a three point shooter. Still, I'd almost rather make a typical college player make 3 clutch free throws than give him even a contested 3. Sure, you could lose the game by fouling when up by three. It's happened before. But you sure as hell aren't going to lose 12% of the time.
Here's a great article by a coach who got burned too many times by not fouling:
http://thebiglead.com/2013/01/31/col...aying-defense/2014 RTS Fantasy Championship National Champion $200,000 (2460 teams)
2012 NFFC Online National Champion $100,000 (1872 teams)
2014 DFWC National Champion $9,250 (288 teams)
2015 RTS Fantasy Championship 2nd Place $25,000 (3120 teams)
2015 NCAA Bracketology (351 pts more than all 136 at the bracket matrix)
Kentucky Wildcats National Champions 2012 1998 1996 1978 1958 1951 1949 1948
The Ohio State Buckeyes National Champions 2014 2002 1970 1968 1961 1957 1954 1942
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