No one goes undefeated

[Signman]

This article on KENPOM's site might be what you two are talking about. I don't think you have to subscribe to read this.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/wichita_states_life_expectancy

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Yes Signman, that is the article Kung Wu read and then made some calculation errors based on it. Thanks for linking for those who haven't read it yet.

[WuShock Reaper]

So if we are able to win each consecutive game, this is how our percentage of finishing undefeated increases. The real test will be the back-to-back "Super Bowl" games at Indiana State and Northern Iowa.

18-Jan Indiana State 16.2%
22-Jan @Illinois State 18.7%
25-Jan @Drake 22.2%
28-Jan Loyola 27.4%
1-Feb Evansville 28.3%
5-Feb @Indiana State 29.1%
8-Feb @Northern Iowa 45.5%
11-Feb Southern Illinois 66.0%
16-Feb @Evansville 68.0%
19-Feb @Loyola 74.8%
22-Feb Drake 82.2%
25-Feb @brad:ley 87.4%
1-Mar Missouri State 95.0%

[Signman]

Yes Signman, that is the article Kung Wu read and then made some calculation errors based on it. Thanks for linking for those who haven't read it yet.

s

One thing about this article that may have been missed was that Pomeroy was "looking thru the lense of invincibility" & "This is an egregious misuse of probabilities—although all values in the chart are correct based on my ratings".

[Kung Wu]

Lay off the ‘Dew’ @Kung Wu:!

Haha, you should see me on coffee!!

[MadaboutWu]

OK, I think I understand what you were doing Kung Wu.

Anyway, I'm a $20/year subscriber. Here is what Ken has on a game by game basis:

Indiana State - 87%
@Illinois State - 84%
@Drake - 81%
Loyola - 97%
Evansville - 97%
@Indiana State - 64%
@Northern Iowa - 69%
Southern Illinois - 97%
@Evansville - 91%
@Loyola - 91%
Drake - 94%
Bradley - 92%
Missouri State - 95%

Interesting to see this breakdown and realize the statistical significance of home field advantage. I would not have thought that @Drake and @ISUr are greater chances for a loss than home vs. ISUb. And that @UE and @LU are nearly as dangerous as the game Saturday.

[ciaomichael]

In Division 1 college basketball, the home team wins about 2/3 of the time...so you have to take that into account. That's why away wins are weighted more than home wins in the RPI.

[shocksrbest]

In Division 1 college basketball, the home team wins about 2/3 of the time...so you have to take that into account. That's why away wins are weighted more than home wins in the RPI.

Unless you're WSU...then it jumps to 80%

[WSUwatcher]

I still don't expect it to happen, but for what it's worth, as of this evening Warren Nolan's predicted RPIs and standings now project WSU finishing the regular season undefeated. He has Syracuse, Arizona, UMass, and SD State all finishing with two losses for the next fewest.

[Shockthemonkey]

Honestly with this group it isn't that big of a deal but I'm all for Arizona and Syracuse to stay without a loss for a while. While I love the national exposure, once we get down to being the last team without a loss it will be a freakin' zoo. Every close game we play there will be live look-ins on ESPN and all of that. BUT if thats what it takes to get Dick Vitale to call one of our home games or College Game Day to show up for the final home game then let it be so.

[pogo]

I have no problem being the only undefeated team left.

[60Shock]

I have no problem being the only undefeated team left.

Especially with the associated # 1 ranking in the country.

[ShockTalk]

Especially with the associated # 1 ranking in the country.

Not necessarily. Last year, Gonzaga did not take over the top spot until the other top contenders had 2 more losses than them.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Gonzaga also lost a game in early December, so they weren't undefeated at this point in the year. Regardless of SOS, there is a magic about still be undefeated, and especially about being the last undefeated team left. I think there are only a handful of scenarios where WSU could be the last unbeaten and not reach #1 in the polls.

[ABC]

I am surprised Gonzaga SOS was not higher last year. It seems like they played most of the Big 12 last year.