Welcome - Paul Mills

[Stickboy46]

There is almost zero change Cortes is an NBA player. So, no, he's not going to step in and immediately replace _Craig Porter_. Hopefully, he will step in and replace Bell and Beverly, allowing them to see more time at the 2 though.

That's very fair. And to my point earlier .. even without Cortes we are playing at a similar level to last year. So if he can come in and provide any boost, it should get us pretty dang close to what I was hoping to see this year. Which is a meaningful improvement over last year.

[Kung Wu]

Well part of HCPMs job is to find people to replace players like CP. Hopefully Cortes is as advertised. If so, it will help our chance at meaningful improvement.

There is almost zero chance Cortes is an NBA player. So, no, he's not going to step in and immediately replace _Craig Porter_. Hopefully, he will step in and replace Bell and Beverly, allowing them to see more time at the 2 though.

[Stickboy46]

Yep. Apples and oranges comparison. The "data" is flawed.

Data is data. Excuses are excuses. Data isn't flawed. You are just building in your own biases to not believe the data. That's on you .. not the data. There may be lots of reasons why, but we are basically playing at the same level as last year.

That said, its not the worst thing in the world to not have a drop off in year one. It might end up being a really good thing as long as things improve. Plenty of time for him to figure that out. I'm just looking unbiased at the data.

EDIT:
I seem to be the one always getting stones thrown at me. But i rarely see others putting out their ideas of what exactly would "good" look like to them. I'm curious what would others deem successful for this year? Something that is meaningful and measurable. What RESULTS would people like to see for this year to feel good. Same with next year. What would people like to see in year 2? I'm willing to guess, when comparing those things with what i've laid out as my expectation, most people probably aren't too far off.

[Stickboy46]

I believe it has more to do with fatigue and limited rotational options than anything else, but that's just my opinion, not data.

While may be true. Having enough players good enough and/or eligible is the coach responsibility. Probably the only one that HCPM really gets a pass on is Ricks. Not really much he can do there.

[Atxshoxfan]

Well part of HCPMs job is to find people to replace players like CP. Hopefully Cortes is as advertised. If so, it will help our chance at meaningful improvement.

PM didn't even have a full recruiting cycle. You can't judge his recruiting when he only had a few months to build a staff and recruit.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

IB's saving grace, Craig Porter, is looooong gone. And along with him any meaningful stats from last year.

Yep. Apples and oranges comparison. The "data" is flawed.

[WuDrWu]

I believe it has more to do with fatigue and limited rotational options than anything else, but that's just my opinion, not data.

[Stickboy46]

IB's saving grace, Craig Porter, is looooong gone. And along with him any meaningful stats from last year.

Well part of HCPMs job is to find people to replace players like CP. Hopefully Cortes is as advertised. If so, it will help our chance at meaningful improvement.

[Kung Wu]

Screenshot 2023-12-20 at 2.37.42 PM.png

What I would like to see by the end of the year is meaningful improvements from our metrics. Right now (granted its apple to oranges because its a full year vs 11 games) we aren't meaningful different than last year.

We play at a faster pace, but Offensive and Defensive efficiencies are nearly identical. We don't shoot as well as last year (which is surprising, but data is data) but we are taking less 3s which is good. We are way lower on assist percentage, which makes sense. We protect the ball better but also generate less turnovers. Much better rebounding though.

IB's saving grace, Craig Porter, is looooong gone. And along with him any meaningful stats from last year.

[SubGod22]

So in other words, it’s going as expected or even slightly better than expected but somehow that’s still not good enough.

You're reading what you want to because you have an agenda against him.

We had a number of wins built into the schedule even if we played poorly, which we have at times. We still lost one of those games.

The team has shown flashes of brilliance and at other times they look horrible and prevent themselves from having a chance of winning winnable games.

As Stick has said, there's nothing that says the future looks extremely bright, and at the same time, there's nothing that says it's doom and gloom. There is still a lot of work to be done to find out where we're headed. Anyone who claims all is/will be well is just being hopeful. Anyone who says there is no hope is being dumb.

I'm amazed how some people take Stick using actual data points as him just being negative. The data is what the data is. There are still plenty of questions about this program right now. Denying that is just foolish. Time will tell how things shake out and we all want them to work out for the best. But wishing it to happen doesn't change what actually happens and what the data says.

Looking at simple W/L is naive.

[ShockerFever]

the raw win loss record is pretty close, if not a little better than i thought. SDSU is the only WTF game. Prior to the season, I would have probably guessed 1-2 in the Tourney, so we did a little better there. The rest has been pretty close. I also expected us to lose to KSU/KU so we have a chance to overachieve there in comparison to my expectations too.

Right now its still a LOT of TBD due to schedule strength. So far since hitting the "real" part of our schedule (Richmond on) ...we are 2-2. If we can finish that 3-3, I would be pleasantly surprised.

I also think we will end up higher from a total win point than I expected because well... the AAC is WAY worse than I expected going into the year. We will likely get throttled by FAU/Memphis, but we should have a realistic shot in nearly every other game.

So in other words, it’s going as expected or even slightly better than expected but somehow that’s still not good enough.

[ShockerFever]

I am curious as to what you thought the Shockers record would be at this point prior to the season? I can probably search and find it but just curious.

2-9

[Stickboy46]

I am curious as to what you thought the Shockers record would be at this point prior to the season? I can probably search and find it but just curious.

the raw win loss record is pretty close, if not a little better than i thought. SDSU is the only WTF game. Prior to the season, I would have probably guessed 1-2 in the Tourney, so we did a little better there. The rest has been pretty close. I also expected us to lose to KSU/KU so we have a chance to overachieve there in comparison to my expectations too.

Right now its still a LOT of TBD due to schedule strength. So far since hitting the "real" part of our schedule (Richmond on) ...we are 2-2. If we can finish that 3-3, I would be pleasantly surprised.

I also think we will end up higher from a total win point than I expected because well... the AAC is WAY worse than I expected going into the year. We will likely get throttled by FAU/Memphis, but we should have a realistic shot in nearly every other game.

EDIT: Since we are going down a rabbit hole here with my expectations. I'll just lay out my rest of the year expectations so its in a post that You can either reference later or throw back in my face later lol.

Screenshot 2023-12-20 at 2.37.42 PM.png

What I would like to see by the end of the year is meaningful improvements from our metrics. Right now (granted its apple to oranges because its a full year vs 11 games) we aren't meaningful different than last year.

We play at a faster pace, but Offensive and Defensive efficiencies are nearly identical. We don't shoot as well as last year (which is surprising, but data is data) but we are taking less 3s which is good. We are way lower on assist percentage, which makes sense. We protect the ball better but also generate less turnovers. Much better rebounding though.

I'd like by the end of the year for us to be in the 70-80 range in both KenPom and NET with a meaningful improvement in our O and D efficiencies. Right now we are sitting at 109 in KP and 88 in NET. So very achievable if we can continue to improve as the competition improves. This is still an improvement while still being pretty far off of where we want to be long term (Top 50 every year)

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

Don't disagree with much of this. No one said no adjustments were made ... and Yes the other coaches make adjustments. But part of why we pay a coach millions of dollars is the hope they can make better adjustments than the opposing coach.

I also agree its not all on the coach, but some like to act like the coach has no control if things go bad and he only is responsible if it goes well. Both the players and coaches have responsibility and accountability here. The players have to be put in a position to succeed, but they also have to be able/willing to follow that path and actually succeed.

It's still TBD on a lot of these things, but so far the results aren't super great .. though not awful either. I'm not really looking for "not awful" as a standard. That said, its 5 meaningful games as a data set. So still super small sample size.

I am curious as to what you thought the Shockers record would be at this point prior to the season? I can probably search and find it but just curious.

[Stickboy46]

Doesn't mean halftime adjustments weren't made. My captain obvious point is that the other guys are making adjustments as well.

I have no data to prove anything but over the course of the season some of you adjustments will work, some won't work and the same is true of the guys in the other locker room. And then you have to adjust to the other guys adjustments and the other guys have to adjust to your adjustments and the hope is wants it all nets out is that you figure out a way to score at least 1 more point at the end of the game than you your opponent has more often than the other guys do.

But this isn't always totally on the coaching staff. Hopefully, your players have enough BBIQ to adjust their play to what the other guys are doing and to the flow of the game. If Colby Rogers is on a heater you might want to look more for him instead of looking for your own scoring opportunities. At least until the other guys figure that out and take that away from you.

Don't disagree with much of this. No one said no adjustments were made ... and Yes the other coaches make adjustments. But part of why we pay a coach millions of dollars is the hope they can make better adjustments than the opposing coach.

I also agree its not all on the coach, but some like to act like the coach has no control if things go bad and he only is responsible if it goes well. Both the players and coaches have responsibility and accountability here. The players have to be put in a position to succeed, but they also have to be able/willing to follow that path and actually succeed.

It's still TBD on a lot of these things, but so far the results aren't super great .. though not awful either. I'm not really looking for "not awful" as a standard. That said, its 5 meaningful games as a data set. So still super small sample size.