Realignment Carousel Spins Up again (USC and UCLA to Big 10)

[MoValley John]

https://247sports.com/Article/Conference-realignment-Notre-Dame-lone-program-who-can-grow-the-financial-pie-per-report-189726779/

Wow! Big numbers!

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

Correct. Title IX is correlated to the school' gender breakdown. I'm not sure how non-binary works, though. That said, the schools in the B1G and SEC are bloated with cash, have more than they can spend and aren't looking for ways around Title IX or scholarship money. These schools are looking for ways to spend the buckets of money they have. When their respective contracts are reworked, the small B1G and SEC schools should have ~ $150 mil. The big boys just broke the $200 mil. barrier. KU for example, just had their largest ever budget of $100 mil. That number shrinks no matter how the Pac or Big 12 try to navigate. Adding schools may add revenue, but also carves the pie into more pieces. None of the B1G or SEC schools have this problem or are even considering this. Schools that need to try and workaround scholarship money have already lost.

I think you are overestimating the amount of money in the coffers of SEC/B1G schools. Some are doing better than others based on FB success.

[Shockm]

https://247sports.com/Article/Confer...ort-189726779/

Wow! Big numbers!

Is Vandy athletically rich? How about Miss. State, Mizzou, or Rutgers? Are they better off than KSU, OSU, Arizona, Utah, Indiana, Nebraska, Florida St.,TT, etc.? Nebraska and OU used to be head and shoulders richer than the rest of the Big 8. Is Nebraska still that far ahead?

[MoValley John]

Is Vandy athletically rich? How about Miss. State? Are they better off than KSU, OSU, TT, etc.?

Yes. If their share of the new media contract is $85- $100 mil, then they are by far better than them all. 2025 will be when we know by just how much. Quite simply, if Vandy or Mississippi State get the lower end of what is expected, each will have ~$85 mil to play with, just out of the gate. This past year, KU had their largest athletic budget ever at $100 mil. With OU and Texas leaving the Big 12, it is expected that each school will lose $18 mil in the next conteact. $100 mil minus $18 mil is $82 mil. If those numbers hold anywhere close to true, in 2025, Mississippi State will have $3 million more than KU, and that's before Mississippi State sells a single ticket or tray of nachos.

Oklahoma State reported that they spent $78 mil in 2021. That was a covid year, and they only generated $64 mil. If they beef up their budget by 30% that only gets them to $101 mil. Which again, is before we subtract out the loss in not benefitting from their share of the OU/Texas media rights.

https://www.oklahoman.com/story/sports/college/cowboys/2022/01/25/oklahoma-state-athletics-had-14-million-deficit-2021-fiscal-year-pandemic/9200142002/

So, in a nutshell, from 2025 going forward, Mississippi State, Vandy, Northwestern, pick whichever, will be in better shape than the richest Big 12 team. The disparity in media rights will be too much for others to overcome.

[MoValley John]

I think you are overestimating the amount of money in the coffers of SEC/B1G schools. Some are doing better than others based on FB success.

Again, my estimate is based on what has been reported that the new GOR deals will be in 2025. The $85-$100 mil distribution per B1G school is not my estimate, but has been put out by others in the media. It is also no secret that with the loss of Oklahoma and Texas, each Big 12 school is going to lose a substantial amount of money in the upcoming GOR. With UCLA and USC leaving the Pac. the Pac's future media deal just shrank insurmountably as well. The problem with both the Pac and the Big 12, is neither conference has a huge money generator anymore. You can add, subtract and do anything you'd like, but the piece of pie each school gets won't add up to what they had in the past. The SEC stole the Big 12's cash cows and the B1G stole the cash cows from the Pac.

[MoValley John]

April 8th article. After OU and Texas left and before USC and UCLA left.

https://247sports.com/Article/Power-Five-conference-money-payouts-SEC-Big-Ten-185912484/

At that time posted, it was estimated that the future media deals by 2029 would give every SEC school, including Vandy, $105.9 mil in annual media revenue. Again, at the time of posting, they expected the B1G 2025 distribution to be $94.5 mil per school. These aren't my numbers. So again, in 2029, Vandy should have more cash to start the year than schools in the Big 12 can even hope to generate regardless of how many tickeys they can sell.

I don't like what is happening, but this is the future of college sports. We'll see if it becomes sustainable.

[Shockm]

Yes. If their share of the new media contract is $85- $100 mil, then they are by far better than them all. 2025 will be when we know by just how much. Quite simply, if Vandy or Mississippi State get the lower end of what is expected, each will have ~$85 mil to play with, just out of the gate. This past year, KU had their largest athletic budget ever at $100 mil. .

You only mention that those schools use the coat tails of maybe 10 truly deserving schools. The only reason those truly deserving schools include your schools is so they have someone to punish and play each week. There are maybe 10 deserving schools to the money. What a joke. I know you love Nebraska, but they are an athletic joke in football. They have been for years.

[MoValley John]

You only mention that those schools use the coat tails of maybe 10 truly deserving schools. The only reason those truly deserving schools include your schools is so they have someone to punish and play each week. There are maybe 10 deserving schools to the money. What a joke. I know you love Nebraska, but they are an athletic joke in football. They have been for years.

Who the hell said I love Nebraska, I don't. I grew up in Illinois. I like them just fine, I go to a game or two a year. I'm also attending a K-State game this year. I'll post pics. I've road tripped to Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Iowa State and others. Doesn't make me a fan. I have exactly zero Husker gear. I have exactly zero Creighton gear.

I said in a previous post that Nebraska was lucky as hell they got out of the Big 12 when they did. Tulane, Nebraska, Iowa, Purdue, they're all lucky. So is Mississippi, Missouri, Mississippi State and Naryland. That said, they all won the lottery, the current and future members of the Pac and Big 12, lost. Its not fair. I think it has a good chance of destroying college sports, but all of this is in motion and has been in motion for 15 years.

Back to your snarky Nebraska comments, if they were in the Big 12 today, they'd be in the same position as Kansas, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. Nebraska does suck. But then again, maybe if the former Big 8 schools listened to Nebraska when the **** hit the fan, Nebraska, Missouri and aTm would still be in the conference. And moreover, had the Big 12 not been sucking on Longhorn balls all day, there wouldn't be instability.

So lets review, Texas, covering their intentions to leave for the Pac 10, made Nebraska the villian. As soon as Colorado bolted, Texas siezed the opportunity to pounce. In the end, all of the former Big 8 schools voted unanimously against Nebraska and for Texas. The final straw was the demand that Nebraska surrender their tier 3 rights to the Big 12. Nebraska responded by agreeing to do so if Texas would do as well. Texas refused and the 11-1 vote went to sanction Nebraska for not surrendering their tier 3 rights. It was over. Texas used a very public Nebraska inquiry from a few years earlier to the then Big 10, as cover for their intentions to bolt to the Pac. Nebraska's inquiry at the time was merely a way to judge option on their planned network.

The conference was dead then, but nobody knew it. Texas had firmly taken control of everything. All agreements went through Austin first. Missouri had been sick of the conference for years, and aTm wasn't going to deal with the Texas bullshit, so they grabbed Missouri and took them to the SEC. The rest is history. So, if you really want to know why the Big 12 is on life support, don't get snarky, instead question the leadership at KU, K-State, OSU Iowa State and ask them why they got sucked in by Texas. Yeah, Nebraska won the lottery, but they have the whole old Big 8 to thank for it. Is that snarky enough?

[Shockm]

I’m not a Big12 person, and I was snarky to a lot of schools. I’m not a KSU or KU fan either. UT has a lot of fans but “suck” in football by Big12 standards. They had a big run under Mack Brown, but KSU had a national run under Bill Snyder, FSU under Bobby Bowden, and Florida under Urban Meyer. All of the schools I mentioned are no better than Baylor, and several schools like Vandy, MSU, and Ole Miss in the SEC aren’t that good.

The best and most consistent football blue bloods there are would probably Norte Dame, Alabama, Ohio State, and maybe OU, and USC. All the other schools don’t fit in that category.

[SubGod22]

But when you have twice as much money to throw around than teams in the other "power" conferences, it helps your chances.

Schools like Texas and the Florida schools will also always be a threat simply based on their size and locations within states with a plethora of talent, large donor base and the desire to matter. It doesn't always all come together, but the threat will always be there. I'd say the same for the likes of USC and UCLA for the same reasons, though California is and always will be a little different.

[Shockm]

But when you have twice as much money to throw around than teams in the other "power" conferences, it helps your chances.

Schools like Texas and the Florida schools will also always be a threat simply based on their size and locations within states with a plethora of talent, large donor base and the desire to matter. It doesn't always all come together, but the threat will always be there. I'd say the same for the likes of USC and UCLA for the same reasons, though California is and always will be a little different.

Well, UT has been a football power before in the 60's and a few years under Mack Brown, but while their recruiting classes are almost always Top 5, they usually aren't that good. USC has been a national power several times, but UCLA hasn't. They did win a National Championship in 1954 under the old rules when they had to be voted in by a Committee. No politics in that, I'm sure.

[MoValley John]

Well, UT has been a football power before in the 60's and a few years under Mack Brown, but while their recruiting classes are almost always Top 5, they usually aren't that good. USC has been a national power several times, but UCLA hasn't. They did win a National Championship in 1954 under the old rules when they had to be voted in by a Committee. No politics in that, I'm sure.

Some of Texas' problems may stem from them recruiting "too good." Texas recruits most, if not all players in state, they all are high 4, or 5 star recruits. They are all D-1 ready. But many of them come in from schools with insane facilities and are as good as they will get. UT fans often gripe about players not being developed. As a recruiter you can't pass on a 5 star, but you don't know if the kid has more potential, or what you see is as good as it gets.

On the other hand, a great 3 star and many 4 star players haven't had the advantage of the best weight rooms, regimented nutrition and unparalleled training facilities. Many of these kids hit campuses and really get good. As many Friday Night Lights schools there are in Texas, it becomes insanely difficult to gauge a recruit's ceiling.

[TrackSuitAndTie]

Some completely unsubstantiated rumors to get the juices flowing on this Friday afternoon:

This last one doesn't make sense to me from a B12 perspective. What MWC or AAC school is increasing the per-team payout by joining the B12? Maybe San Diego State or Memphis? I think SMU's only chance out of the AAC is to the P12, which doesn't work if the P12 implodes completely.

[SubGod22]

For the XII, if Utah is off the table, I would think they'd target SDSU to try and get into California. Boise would get some talk, but I don't think that they bring more value than SDSU. Colorado State could be a consideration, but if they have Colorado lined up, I'm not sure they'd go there. Not sure what other MWC schools would really get consideration.

If an AAC school were targeted, I still think they'd be more likely to double up and take a chance of USF than to take Memphis. I could be wrong, but I'm not sure that they would see much value in any of the AAC schools at this point.

I could see Utah choosing the ACC over the XII simply to stay away from BYU.

I don't see Oregon or Washington or Stanford doing anything until they know the B1G is off of the table. They're not going to commit to the ACC while B1G money could still be on the table.

[Dave Stalwart]

As crazy as it all got, really fast… I am starting to feel kinda good about who the American added. Those are all from big cities, which fit the American mold and they are all kinda perfectly on that line of “worth adding and totally safe from getting poached for a while”

I’m really hoping the AAC figures out how to stay strong enough to still be one of the top conferences on the outside of all this stuff. We need to be the ones doing the inviting of every remaining big city/program as the dust settles and I think it’s very possible to pull that off. I can really see how being invited to the AAC when we were could have been very fortunate even in the midst of feeling like you just added a bunch of medium conference USA schools. It’s still going to end up being on the leading edge of its class when all is said and done.