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2021-22 Basketball happenings around the American Athletic!
Ummm... the B12's brand is infinitely greater than the AAC's. If this all goes down, the B12 will take the strongest members of the AAC and the MWC and Wichita State will be left in the MVC2. This wasn't supposed to happen for a few more years.
Because KU (or any of them if they could) is more excited about adding Houston, Cincy, Memphis (or whomever) to the B12 leftovers than the idea of cutting bait and joining up with B10 and ACC powerhouses?
There is zero chance 4 former B12 schools join the AAC.
UCF, Cincinnati, Memphis, Boise, UH, and USF or SMU will be joining the B12.
The End.
Depends on what the TV contracts want. AAC is attached to the big boy (ESPN) while Big XII is split right now with FOX. The mouse is going to have a huge say in what happens here.
The other miracle would be the Big 10, Pac 12 and ACC also decide to raid the big 12. The big 12 adding the AAC schools will bolster it, but the KUs and other schools would have to prefer transferring to one of those other conferences if the option presents itself.
"When life hands you lemons, make lemonade." Better have some sugar and water too, or else your lemonade will suck!
Depends on what the TV contracts want. AAC is attached to the big boy (ESPN) while Big XII is split right now with FOX. The mouse is going to have a huge say in what happens here.
Do you think a major television network will go with a no-name conference brand over a blue blood conference brand if they have a choice? I mean... look at what the dregs of the former Big East did with only the name...lol
Someone buys someone out. Contracts are broken. Fines are paid. Life goes on.
Because KU (or any of them if they could) is more excited about adding Houston, Cincy, Memphis (or whomever) to the B12 leftovers than the idea of cutting bait and joining up with B10 and ACC powerhouses?
That's a logical stretch.
My scenario assumes that 6 of the B12 schools are gone. No, there will be no KlUck Central in the B12 if the malodorous AAC teams show up to the party. They will have flown the ChicKUn coop long ago.
They'd be forming a new conference, not joining the American.
You don't drop the B12 brand unless someone forces you to. And that wouldn't be a bad idea if you were KlUck, Ou, Tu, etc. Burn the entire place down when you leave.
There is zero chance 4 former B12 schools join the AAC.
UCF, Cincinnati, Memphis, Boise, UH, and USF or SMU will be joining the B12.
The End.
If those four are the only ones left, the XII loses it's luster and pull and the TV money takes a massive hit no matter who they bring in. If OU and Texas are gone, as others have pointed out, it makes a lot more sense for those that have escape paths to take them. They will be better off financially and be secure inside one of the conferences that aren't going to die. Why prolong the XII or commit to X amount of years in it when the financial awards are so much better elsewhere?
KU will go to the B1G or ACC. They'll even go to the PAC if the other two don't want them. But someone is going to take on KU for their basketball and national pull there.
I could definitely see the PAC taking Tech and OSU, maybe two more, just to kill the XII. I think the PAC has always been safe as a conference, but I could see them wanting to get rid of their competition. Someone asked why Tech over the other Texas schools, but the only other options are TCU and Baylor out of the XII. There seems to be some thought that they don't want any religious schools in their group. But Tech still gets you into Texas. I could see Houston as an option for them as well.
All of this to say, it makes sense financially and for security for those that can, to go. The XII could very well die and the AAC would benefit from that. Could those above four salvage the XII and take teams from the MWC/AAC to keep the XII together? Maybe. But the financial side may not make sense at that point for those in the AAC/MWC at that point. There's no way those four can add any grouping of members from other conferences to get a huge payday. Maybe FOX desperately needs the content and way overpays? Doubtful. And if it comes to choosing which conference to align with if they're down to four, the AAC would seem to be more attractive than the MWC for most if not all of them.
If somehow, only OU and Texas leave, then it's bad for the AAC.
Do you think a major television network will go with a no-name conference brand over a blue blood conference brand if they have a choice? I mean... look at what the dregs of the former Big East did with only the name...lol
Someone buys someone out. Contracts are broken. Fines are paid. Life goes on.
If only 4 teams of the Big 12 are left, they are much more likely to try to make a 16 team super conference. Name is irrelevant at that point. That would pull all of the remaining teams together along with a Boise/BYU type add. Then we could end up with a truly separate "P5" (or 6 for basketball)
Good or bad we are semi tied to Navy, and Navy football holds some value. I also think ESPN wouldn't want to be seen and dumping one of our armed forces off to the side into a tiny leftover conference. If Navy gets pulled, we very well could get an invite too in order to fill it out (since the other Navy sports aren't nearly as valuable).
Combine AAC and whoever (B12 flunkies, MWC, whoever else makes sense) and create two divisions within the conference [d1, d2] with relegation to get into d1 for each sport. d1 schools play each other home and away, d1 plays d2 home only = big boost to metrics (best teams are assured to play other quality teams twice, but only have to play bottom feeders once at home). Only d1 schools can compete for conference trophy and NCAA automatic tourney bid. d2 schools could have their own tourney for promotion (maybe promote the d2 season champ and d2 tourney winner into d1, and relegate the bottom two of d1 down to d2). Relegation keeps it dynamic and properly incentivizes schools to compete.
That's a pipe dream, but it'd be killer.
Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!
If those four are the only ones left, the XII loses it's luster and pull and the TV money takes a massive hit no matter who they bring in. If OU and Texas are gone, as others have pointed out, it makes a lot more sense for those that have escape paths to take them. They will be better off financially and be secure inside one of the conferences that aren't going to die. Why prolong the XII or commit to X amount of years in it when the financial awards are so much better elsewhere?
KU will go to the B1G or ACC. They'll even go to the PAC if the other two don't want them. But someone is going to take on KU for their basketball and national pull there.
I could definitely see the PAC taking Tech and OSU, maybe two more, just to kill the XII. I think the PAC has always been safe as a conference, but I could see them wanting to get rid of their competition. Someone asked why Tech over the other Texas schools, but the only other options are TCU and Baylor out of the XII. There seems to be some thought that they don't want any religious schools in their group. But Tech still gets you into Texas. I could see Houston as an option for them as well.
All of this to say, it makes sense financially and for security for those that can, to go. The XII could very well die and the AAC would benefit from that. Could those above four salvage the XII and take teams from the MWC/AAC to keep the XII together? Maybe. But the financial side may not make sense at that point for those in the AAC/MWC at that point. There's no way those four can add any grouping of members from other conferences to get a huge payday. Maybe FOX desperately needs the content and way overpays? Doubtful. And if it comes to choosing which conference to align with if they're down to four, the AAC would seem to be more attractive than the MWC for most if not all of them.
If somehow, only OU and Texas leave, then it's bad for the AAC.
The B12 is a brand, first and foremost. Same as the Big East. No, it will not have the contract drawing power of the "actual B12". But the B12 filled with a bunch of AAC schools is better than the AAC filled w/ a bunch of AAC schools and a couple former B12. What I'm saying may sound petty, but branding and goodwill are very real things and people pay billions to develop them. The B12 logo inspires a ton of confidence in sports fans subliminally. Cincinnati playing in the B12 sounds heaps better than Cincinnati playing in the AAC. Networks are ALL about image and branding. Again, look at what the dregs of the old Big East did with the Big Priest. It's almost as if they didn't skip a step. And that conference is FULL of shitty basketball schools lmfao.
Endowments
Baylor $1.7B
TCU $1.7B
Iowa State $1.1B
KSU $510M
Yeah... they're not being recruiting by the AAC lol. Baylor and TCU will handpick whomever they want. And those picked will scramble when invited dressed up in their Sunday besties.
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