2021-22 Basketball happenings around the American Athletic!

[calfan]

If these guys could think ahead, they would stop trying to eliminate each other and go after their real enemy the Big !2. The Moutain West and the AAC should come together and merge into one super conference. Then, they don't have to worry about losing Memphis or Boise State. Then the Big 12 has to worry about who they might lose to the new American West conference.

That won't happen, so I think the American is probably going to take 4 teams.

The first two are pretty easy UAB, and UTSA, I think they need Coastal Carolina because of their ranking.

The 4th team is the hardest and I think that is the conference commissioner's problem. Do you take a school in Florida or mid-Atlantic?

I don't know which one I would take.

I think that is where we are at.

I don't see WSU leaving the AAC unless something bigger than what we see now happens.

[Dan]

My guess is that the SEC is going to eventually peel away from the NCAA. They could continue to expand, bringing in schools like Clemson, Florida State, etc until they have 2 super conferences within their own conference. They will try to get the BIg 10 and ACC to join them with hand selected teams and leave the rest to look for new landing spots. At that point, the Big 12 will have plenty of leftovers to choose from.

[WuTheOne]

If these guys could think ahead, they would stop trying to eliminate each other and go after their real enemy the Big !2. The Moutain West and the AAC should come together and merge into one super conference. Then, they don't have to worry about losing Memphis or Boise State. Then the Big 12 has to worry about who they might lose to the new American West conference.

That won't happen, so I think the American is probably going to take 4 teams.

The first two are pretty easy UAB, and UTSA, I think they need Coastal Carolina because of their ranking.

The 4th team is the hardest and I think that is the conference commissioner's problem. Do you take a school in Florida or mid-Atlantic?

I don't know which one I would take.

I think that is where we are at.

I don't see WSU leaving the AAC unless something bigger than what we see now happens.

Taking 4 now would be a terrible idea. That would minimize future options and dilute the value of the league past where it is already diluted. A better approach is to add UAB and STOP! That minimizes further devaluation of the league and allows for more moves in the future as the current shakeup plays out.

[1972Shocker]

If these guys could think ahead, they would stop trying to eliminate each other and go after their real enemy the Big !2. The Moutain West and the AAC should come together and merge into one super conference. Then, they don't have to worry about losing Memphis or Boise State. Then the Big 12 has to worry about who they might lose to the new American West conference.

Something like this may happen sometime down the road and it probably would be the Big 12 poaching Boise State and Memphis (and perhaps San Diego State) that might trigger such a thing. In any case, even if the AAC/MWC merge to form a super-conference I don't think that would in any way prevent the Big 12 or another P-5 conference from poaching whoever the wanted from the AAMWC or any other Group of Five conference.

What is more likely, an AAC/MWC merger or the MWC turning the tables on the AAC and going after some of their western teams such as SMU and Tulsa? If this would happen in conjuction with the Big XII poaching Memphis then the the AAC would pretty much cease to be a viable entity. At that point you might see the AAC, CUSA and SBC come together to form some kind of a conglomeration that would reorganize into divisions that make more geographic sense.

The big question is what strategy is the MWC going to pursue.

Mountain West Staves Off AAC, Keeps Boise State, San Diego State, Air Force & Colorado State In Conference

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/...colorado-state

The Mountain West also indicated “the best path forward” could consist of “aggressively pursuing strategic initiatives and amplifying our collective brand.”

In other words, the Mountain West stuck together and now could pick off some schools from other leagues.

Among the possibilities, sources said, could be gauging interest in some of the AAC members, including SMU, or non-football members such as Gonzaga (West Coast Athletic) or Wichita State (AAC).

“All three have been discussed, along with many others,” a Mountain West source said. “We’re still strategizing whether to add or not. This is an ongoing conversation.”

While the 12-member Mountain West can patiently evaluate the college landscape before deciding what — if any — moves to make, the same can’t be said about the American.

Of course, like everything else on this topic all we have at this point is speculation. What isn't speculation is that the AAC is 0-2 in the Realignment Wars (not counting the original formation of the AAC and obviously that lacked long-term stability) and is seriously wounded and the options they are left with to replace UConn, Cincy, Houston and UCF are not all that great. The AAC right now is in a 'let's try to make the best of a bad situation' mode.

[SubGod22]

Taking 4 now would be a terrible idea. That would minimize future options and dilute the value of the league past where it is already diluted. A better approach is to add UAB and STOP! That minimizes further devaluation of the league and allows for more moves in the future as the current shakeup plays out.

Agreed. Adding 4 right now with the options left seems short-sighted when the potential to raid the MWC still exists in a couple of years. You'd much rather have room to add 4-6 of those schools than those that are remaining in the SE. And those in the SE will still be available in 5 years if you need them. UAB, Buffalo and Liberty are the only schools that could bring strength in both sports and have the resources to compete. UAB seems obvious and Liberty seems unlikely for reasons outside of sports and support. Buffalo seems to be off as well. So if you aren't adding one of those two, there's really no need to add a 10th, unless Rice can commit to athletics in a bigger way.

[C0|dB|00ded]

In realignment, NO ONE cares about basketball.

Do you truly think ACC football is worth $30M a team?

[TrackSuitAndTie]

Agreed. Adding 4 right now with the options left seems short-sighted when the potential to raid the MWC still exists in a couple of years. You'd much rather have room to add 4-6 of those schools than those that are remaining in the SE. And those in the SE will still be available in 5 years if you need them. UAB, Buffalo and Liberty are the only schools that could bring strength in both sports and have the resources to compete. UAB seems obvious and Liberty seems unlikely for reasons outside of sports and support. Buffalo seems to be off as well. So if you aren't adding one of those two, there's really no need to add a 10th, unless Rice can commit to athletics in a bigger way.

I agree that UAB and Liberty are the only realistic options that strengthen the AAC in both basketball and football. Both schools have been in the top 100 for basketball recently and both schools have bowl-contending football programs. UAB and Liberty also fit nicely into the AAC's geographic footprint.

[mattdalt]

Do you truly think ACC football is worth $30M a team?

Do you think acc bball is?

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/31484061/acc-distributed-record-4972-million-2019-20-financial-year-increase-42-million

No mention of bball. Why do you suppose that is? I’ll help, because NO ONE cares about bball when discussing realignment.

[C0|dB|00ded]

Do you think acc bball is?

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/...ase-42-million

No mention of bball. Why do you suppose that is? I’ll help, because NO ONE cares about bball when discussing realignment.

They care very much about basketball, it just isn't the main driver.

Television revenue is television revenue. The NCAA Tournament averages around 10M viewers per window across all 4 networks. Basketball also plays many more games. It would be interesting to see some statistics on total eyeballs watching basketball vs. football when considering all games.

Don't you think it's suspicious that KU going to the ACC wasn't ever even mentioned? The ACC has the worst football of all the power conferences. It would seem that KU would be a match made in heaven with respect to balanced competitiveness. And if they're the 3rd highest earner in the B12 behind OU and UT..... yeah, the popular math on basketball doesn't add up. They would clearly bring great value to the ACC. I'm going with UNC/Duke blocking them.

[C0|dB|00ded]

Furthermore: I believe a conference like the ACC, earning $30M per school,... 30% of that is attributable to the basketball side of things. Now... in the SEC, I think the numbers are lower, more like 15-20%.

Just spitballing here. But my spitballs are sniper bullets.

[mattdalt]

They care very much about basketball, it just isn't the main driver.

Television revenue is television revenue. The NCAA Tournament averages around 10M viewers per window across all 4 networks. Basketball also plays many more games. It would be interesting to see some statistics on total eyeballs watching basketball vs. football when considering all games.

Don't you think it's suspicious that KU going to the ACC wasn't ever even mentioned? The ACC has the worst football of all the power conferences. It would seem that KU would be a match made in heaven with respect to balanced competitiveness. And if they're the 3rd highest earner in the B12 behind OU and UT..... yeah, the popular math on basketball doesn't add up. They would clearly bring great value to the ACC. I'm going with UNC/Duke blocking them.

They would bring some basketball value, (and that is not guaranteed going forward), but they take significantly more value off the table via football. And after decades of sucking, and a failed capital campaign, they aren’t getting better anytime soon, or later.

[mattdalt]

Furthermore, if their basketball had anywhere near the value you think, they would be someplace other than the little 12

[bleed yellow]

And it wouldn’t be hard to think of ideas of how to block KU from the ACC. The schools that don’t want them could say the ACC would eventually find itself loaning KU money to keep it’s football going

[C0|dB|00ded]

I'm liking some of the potential adds being discussed on the AAC board. If they pan out, we'll be headed to the MWC in no time. No conference buy out.

[SubGod22]

I'm liking some of the potential adds being discussed on the AAC board. If they pan out, we'll be headed to the MWC in no time. No conference buy out.

What adds are they discussing? And why do you think there would be no exit fee?