2020-21 AAC games/discussion

[AZ Shocker]

That damn NET thing again. Lol.
Of course they should be a lock. :) I was simply looking at their schedule and didn't see much difference as to who they beat and lost to. Compared to ours it seems to not really be anything to write home about. Ole' Miss and Texas Tech are both .500 in conference play. Maybe the Texas Tech home win for Houston is perceived better than our 'Ole Miss road win. Or maybe that 66 point win Houston had on Feb. 6 over Lady of the Lake was the clincher. ;)

[1972Shocker]

9

Is Houston a "lock" because they've won 20 games? Or is it because they beat a .500 Big-12 team (Texas Tech)??? They're super good no doubt...but they also have a couple what we be deemd as "bad losses" in Tulsa and East Carolina.

A net ranking of #4 may have something to do with it even though that metric seems to be producing screwball results this year.

Currently they are 2-1 (Q1), 4-1 (Q2), 9-1 (Q3) and 4-0 (Q-4). Houston is ranked #3 in the RPI. Houston's non-con SOS is 92.

In any case, Houston should be a lock.

The Shocks are 2-2 (Q1), 2-2 (Q-2) 5-0 (Q3) and 2-0 (Q4) with a non-con SOS of 23. Our net ranking is currently #66 but our RPI has us #18. I guess the net doesn't like close wins. Not sure what explains the disrepancy between our NET and RPI while Houston's rankings in these two metrics are nearly the same.

[AZ Shocker]

Is Houston a "lock" because they've won 20 games? Or is it because they beat a .500 Big-12 team (Texas Tech)??? They're super good no doubt...but they also have a couple what we be deemd as "bad losses" in Tulsa and East Carolina.

[wichshock65]

Bold of you to assume that ECU won't be in COVID pause for the 5th time

SMU?

[Stickboy46]

As much as I would selfishly like for us to be the autobid out of the conference championship, that just wouldn't be right for all the other teams. Gone would be the ability for ECU to make a magical run, win the American tourny and punch their ticket to the dance. Wouldn't be cool.

Bold of you to assume that ECU won't be in COVID pause for the 5th time

[wichshock65]

They had to notify the NCAA of any changes to who gets the auto bid by Feb 26. So unless they did and didn't announce it ... I'd assume that's not the plan

As much as I would selfishly like for us to be the autobid out of the conference championship, that just wouldn't be right for all the other teams. Gone would be the ability for ECU to make a magical run, win the American tourny and punch their ticket to the dance. Wouldn't be cool.

[Stickboy46]

The only rational I can think of is that if we win the regular season, we're the auto-qualifier. Houston is a shoe-in. They don't need to win either the regular season or AAC tournament.

If Houston wins the regular season, they name the tourney winner the auto-bid hoping to get a third team in. They have until before the AAC tourney starts don't they?

They had to notify the NCAA of any changes to who gets the auto bid by Feb 26. So unless they did and didn't announce it ... I'd assume that's not the plan

[ShockTalk]

The only rational I can think of is that if we win the regular season, we're the auto-qualifier. Houston is a shoe-in. They don't need to win either the regular season or AAC tournament.

If Houston wins the regular season, they name the tourney winner the auto-bid hoping to get a third team in. They have until before the AAC tourney starts don't they?

[Stickboy46]

Wasn't it said that it is up to the "individual schools" to get the rescheduling done? The AAC only announces the rescheduling. Or was I dreaming? But if true this might not be on the AAC.

I think it's a little of both. I believe the AAC takes the lead in rescheduling but a school does not have to accept the adjustments. Penny turned down playing us here because it would have been too many road games in a row for them.

[Stickboy46]

Crunching the numbers, if we only play, and win, one more game, our win percentage would be 83.33%. That's with a final record of 10-2. If Houston is able to schedule Cincinnati this week, they would have 2 more games. If they win both of those, they also end up with 83.33% and a 15-3 record. I smell a major screw job coming! We need games!

Does anyone know how the tie breakers work in the American?

First is head to head

Second goes down the standings and comparable records. Memphis likely becomes the tie breaker in which case they would win. They would have beat Memphis once and we lost.

That said, apparently Sampson walked back his statement and said he doesn't expect any changes to their schedule. So a Tulane win should lock it in if the Temple game gets cancelled

[ShockTalk]

Wasn't it said that it is up to the "individual schools" to get the rescheduling done? The AAC only announces the rescheduling. Or was I dreaming? But if true this might not be on the AAC.

Are you saying Boatright strikes again? Or if a school just doesn't want to fit you in, tough sh*t?

[wichshock65]

Crunching the numbers, if we only play, and win, one more game, our win percentage would be 83.33%. That's with a final record of 10-2. If Houston is able to schedule Cincinnati this week, they would have 2 more games. If they win both of those, they also end up with 83.33% and a 15-3 record. I smell a major screw job coming! We need games!

Does anyone know how the tie breakers work in the American?

[SB Shock]

This whole thing stinks to high heaven. We've had 6 games ppd, Houston 4 ppd. They could end up making up 1 or 2 of them. Meanwhile, we will have gone with 12 days off between games, probably rusty, and may get 1 of our 2 remaining games cancelled. Houston could end up with 17-18 conference games and we end up with 12-13. I call some serious BS on the AAC really trying to get our games rescheduled. I might be off a game somewhere, but right now, I hope we win our remaining game 1 or 2 games, while Houston loses to Memphis. Please correct me if I missed something.

Wasn't it said that it is up to the "individual schools" to get the rescheduling done? The AAC only announces the rescheduling. Or was I dreaming? But if true this might not be on the AAC.

[ShockTalk]

Sampson apparently hinted that they will be playing Cincy now. So good chance they will be giving Houston enough games to tie our win percentage even though they have more losses.

This whole thing stinks to high heaven. We've had 6 games ppd, Houston 4 ppd. They could end up making up 1 or 2 of them. Meanwhile, we will have gone with 12 days off between games, probably rusty, and may get 1 of our 2 remaining games cancelled. Houston could end up with 17-18 conference games and we end up with 12-13. I call some serious BS on the AAC really trying to get our games rescheduled. I might be off a game somewhere, but right now, I hope we win our remaining game 1 or 2 games, while Houston loses to Memphis. Please correct me if I missed something.

[wichshock65]

Not officially. Gotta hope that it comes through

Just noticed Tulsa is playing northeastern state on Thursday.