2012 Bracket Busters Projections

[ShockTalk]

Once again, our small margin for error comes in to play. After taking out all Atl-10, MWC, and C-USA teams and those mid majors who's conference or team does not play (such as Belmont, Harvard, Gonzaga, Denver), this is where we stand: Top Home Teams with expected RPI from rpiforecast.com: 25 Murray St, 32 Ohio, 37 Iona, 42 CU, 52 Cleveland St, 56 Mo St, 59 NM St. Top Away Teams: 18 UNI, 23 St. Mary's, 24 WSU, 50 Long Beach St. Where are the Colonial teams? VCU is currently on top at #90.

Frankly, I'm not excited. Unless we pass UNI or St Mary's (or get lucky), expect one of them to play Murray St. That leaves Ohio, Iona, or Cleveland St, all teams with potentially lower RPIs playing at home. Each would be a quality win on the road, but lack "that name". It shouldn't be that bad of loss, but again "that name" could haunt us.

[_kai_]

Actually there is a lot of talk on Twitter as well about Cleveland State, and Iona. Both of those would be quality games. Ohio might be up there too by that time.

[The Mad Hatter]

Once again, our small margin for error comes in to play. After taking out all Atl-10, MWC, and C-USA teams and those mid majors who's conference or team does not play (such as Belmont, Harvard, Gonzaga, Denver), this is where we stand: Top Home Teams with expected RPI from rpiforecast.com: 25 Murray St, 32 Ohio, 37 Iona, 42 CU, 52 Cleveland St, 56 Mo St, 59 NM St. Top Away Teams: 18 UNI, 23 St. Mary's, 24 WSU, 50 Long Beach St. Where are the Colonial teams? VCU is currently on top at #90.

Frankly, I'm not excited. Unless we pass UNI or St Mary's (or get lucky), expect one of them to play Murray St. That leaves Ohio, Iona, or Cleveland St, all teams with potentially lower RPIs playing at home. Each would be a quality win on the road, but lack "that name". It shouldn't be that bad of loss, but again "that name" could haunt us.

Iona has been getting a fair amount of press and are a high scoring team (87 ppg and #15 in Pomeroy's adjusted offense category) which gives you a better shot at ESPN hyping such a team.

[shockmonster]

Once again, our small margin for error comes in to play. After taking out all Atl-10, MWC, and C-USA teams and those mid majors who's conference or team does not play (such as Belmont, Harvard, Gonzaga, Denver), this is where we stand: Top Home Teams with expected RPI from rpiforecast.com: 25 Murray St, 32 Ohio, 37 Iona, 42 CU, 52 Cleveland St, 56 Mo St, 59 NM St. Top Away Teams: 18 UNI, 23 St. Mary's, 24 WSU, 50 Long Beach St. Where are the Colonial teams? VCU is currently on top at #90.

Frankly, I'm not excited. Unless we pass UNI or St Mary's (or get lucky), expect one of them to play Murray St. That leaves Ohio, Iona, or Cleveland St, all teams with potentially lower RPIs playing at home. Each would be a quality win on the road, but lack "that name". It shouldn't be that bad of loss, but again "that name" could haunt us.

Speculate if you want to but this is way too early. So many things can happen. in a month and a half. We play 11 more games at least before the pairings.

[ShockTalk]

Speculate if you want to but this is way too early. So many things can happen. in a month and a half. We play 11 more games at least before the pairings.

No doubt it's speculation, but that's why I looked at rpiforecast.com's expected RPI for these teams. There's not much left of the non-con schedule for any of these teams. The non-Valley teams listed on the "at home" side are expected to dominate their respective conferences. If they don't, their RPIs drop even further down and any new team from those conferences will not have as high an expected RPI as the current leaders due to the lower standing of their conferences.

WSU must do what is expected as a minimum to keep that standing among the away teams and would only improve their standing if the 2 above them falter somewhat or WSU exceeds expectation.

[vancedave56]

Let's hope that we keep winning along with Murray St.

[ShockTalk]

Expected ranking (from rpiforecast.com), going into tonight:

Home: Murray St 28, Iona 30 (lost tonight), Ohio 32, CU 41, Mo St 56, Cleveland St 61

Away: WSU 18, St. Mary's 23, UNI 29 (before loss), Long Beach St 54....if later on we're lower than this, it doesn't matter.

FYI: Top Colonial team is VCU at 82 and they're a home team. How fast this conference has fallen.

[BikeIdiot]

Do the BB games really work in our favor? How much of a bump do we get with a win vs. a loss?

a

[ShockTalk]

Do the BB games really work in our favor? How much of a bump do we get with a win vs. a loss?

a

This year, assuming we keep our nose clean against the bottom of the Valley, it shouldn't matter. We would be one of the top 2 away teams and should draw quality opponents that, with a loss, wouldn't hurt that much.

The problem with BB is that it is getting weaker. Using currently projected "expected" RPIs, there is currently only 7 teams better than 50, 3 of those, Valley teams. Assuming best RPI match-ups, WSU at #18 goes to #28 Murray St. #29 UNI goes to Iona (was #30 before bad loss tonight). #41 CU hosts #54 Long Beach St and #56 MSU hosts #72 C of C (that's right, currently they're the 5th best away team). One could argue that, other than WSU, the other Valley teams can't help themselves much, but could really get hurt.

[shox1989]

This year, assuming we keep our nose clean against the bottom of the Valley, it shouldn't matter. We would be one of the top 2 away teams and should draw quality opponents that, with a loss, wouldn't hurt that much.

The problem with BB is that it is getting weaker. Using currently projected "expected" RPIs, there is currently only 7 teams better than 50, 3 of those, Valley teams. Assuming best RPI match-ups, WSU at #18 goes to #28 Murray St. #29 UNI goes to Iona (was #30 before bad loss tonight). #41 CU hosts #54 Long Beach St and #56 MSU hosts #72 C of C (that's right, currently they're the 5th best away team). One could argue that, other than WSU, the other Valley teams can't help themselves much, but could really get hurt.

My New Year's wish is that we get out of this 146 team tournament of one-bid leagues and replace it with a challenge involving the A-10, C-USA and Mountain West.

It just seems like the BallBusters event just gets bigger and worse each year. I just can't get excited about going on the road to face Iona College in their 2611 seat gym or to Murray State where they have been drawing between 3000 and 4000 for most of their home games (2440 for their home opener).

BTW- It also appears that Iona College has a lot of trouble scheduling non-conference games as they have only played 2 home games so far this year. (They will get to play Siena in MSG as part of a big event with Louisville and St. Johns). The BB gets them a rare home non-conference game. I would probably love this event if I were them.

[Capitol Shock II]

+1

[SB Shock]

Do the BB games really work in our favor? How much of a bump do we get with a win vs. a loss?

a

It gives WSU another quality game, otherwise we would probably be playing a chicago state taking a RPI hit that entails or Newman that doesn't count at all.

[_kai_]

My New Year's wish is that we get out of this 146 team tournament of one-bid leagues and replace it with a challenge involving the A-10, C-USA and Mountain West.

It just seems like the BallBusters event just gets bigger and worse each year. I just can't get excited about going on the road to face Iona College in their 2611 seat gym or to Murray State where they have been drawing between 3000 and 4000 for most of their home games (2440 for their home opener).

BTW- It also appears that Iona College has a lot of trouble scheduling non-conference games as they have only played 2 home games so far this year. (They will get to play Siena in MSG as part of a big event with Louisville and St. Johns). The BB gets them a rare home non-conference game. I would probably love this event if I were them.

Somehow I don't see how going to schools that little fan support, hurts us? I think it would make the home environment easier to win in. If their RPI is high, I could care less what their home environment is like, it works in our favor.

[wufan]

My New Year's wish is that we get out of this 146 team tournament of one-bid leagues and replace it with a challenge involving the A-10, C-USA and Mountain West.

The Valley should just go out and set-up home and home challenges with the three conferences mentioned above. Maybe the CAA too. That would be 6-8 quality games a year for each program in addition to three more games in an exempt tourney and you've pretty much filled your schedule.

Better yet, I just REALLY want to form a non-BCS super-basketball conference! That's what C-USA was/should have been.

[1972Shocker]

My New Year's wish is that we get out of this 146 team tournament of one-bid leagues and replace it with a challenge involving the A-10, C-USA and Mountain West.

A challenge with the A-10 would be great but is unlikely to happen. A challenge with C-USA might be good, although that league may or may not survive. We have a challenge with the Mountain West which I expect will end after next year from what I have read.

Absent these other kind of arrangements a BB game is certainly better than adding another Chicago State or D-II opponent to the schedule.

BB really doesn't hurt you as long as you win. Unfortunately, the Shocks/MVC have not exactly been dominating in BB games, although the Shocks have done very well in the return games.

I have no problem with BB as long as our current scheduling challenges continue. Obviously, if any opportunity to upgrade our scheduling should be pursued. However until we have those better deals in the bank I'm for staying with BB, but you need to win these games.