2012 Bracket Busters Projections

[shox1989]

A challenge with the A-10 would be great but is unlikely to happen. A challenge with C-USA might be good, although that league may or may not survive. We have a challenge with the Mountain West which I expect will end after next year from what I have read.

Absent these other kind of arrangements a BB game is certainly better than adding another Chicago State or D-II opponent to the schedule.

BB really doesn't hurt you as long as you win. Unfortunately, the Shocks/MVC have not exactly been dominating in BB games, although the Shocks have done very well in the return games.

I have no problem with BB as long as our current scheduling challenges continue. Obviously, if any opportunity to upgrade our scheduling should be pursued. However until we have those better deals in the bank I'm for staying with BB, but you need to win these games.

I guess I don't see BB providing games that we couldn't already schedule if 3G really thought it was good to play a home and home against these teams. Iona College has only 2 non-conference home games. Don't tell me we couldn't get a home and home (actually we could probably easily get a 2 for 1 with them) if 3G really thought it was in our best interest to play them.

The same with Murray State expect it would probably have to be a home and home instead of a 2 for 1.

A handful of teams in this event have decent rpis but they don't carry any weight with the national media or the committee. If we lose to them it hurts, but for the most part beating 95% of the 146 teams in this thing doesn't help anyone at all.

If these teams were in the same state and we could cut down on travel and maybe build a rivalry with them it would be fine. But travelling half way across the country to play Iona College in their 2611 seat gym in a trap game is not very appealing to me.

[eeshocker]

I guess I don't see BB providing games that we couldn't already schedule if 3G really thought it was good to play a home and home against these teams. Iona College has only 2 non-conference home games. Don't tell me we couldn't get a home and home (actually we could probably easily get a 2 for 1 with them) if 3G really thought it was in our best interest to play them.

The same with Murray State expect it would probably have to be a home and home instead of a 2 for 1.

A handful of teams in this event have decent rpis but they don't carry any weight with the national media or the committee. If we lose to them it hurts, but for the most part beating 95% of the 146 teams in this thing doesn't help anyone at all.

If these teams were in the same state and we could cut down on travel and maybe build a rivalry with them it would be fine. But travelling half way across the country to play Iona College in their 2611 seat gym in a trap game is not very appealing to me.

The problem with that logic is that these lower mid majors like Murray State aren't consistently high RPI teams. IMO, it's a **** shoot for 3G when scheduling teams like this. He could go out and get some of these teams on the schedule, but what if they turn out to have a down season. The BB gaurantees a good RPI game (as long as WSU is worthy) and gives them a chance to play a team they may be competing with for an at large spot. I see way more positives in BB than negatives. BTW, i have been in some 2000 seat basketball gyms that were very loud. Just becuase a school is small and doesn't have the fan base to fill a 10000 seat gym, does not mean it's an easy or bad environment to play in.

[1979Shocker]

Bracket Buster games are only good for teams that don't already have a good OOC win. If you lose a bracket buster game and don't already have at least one good OOC win, your bracket is busted. Then your only choice is to win your conference tournament.

[eeshocker]

Bracket Buster games are only good for teams that don't already have a good OOC win. If you lose a bracket buster game and don't already have at least one good OOC win, your bracket is busted. Then your only choice is to win your conference tournament.

The really good BB teams can lose and still get in, Shockers have proven that in the past. If you are a borderline team and can't win a BB matchup, maybe the NIT where you belong anyway. As i have stated above, I think the positives outnumber the negatives. Most people assume that if there was no BB game, that the shocks would get a good team on the schedule instead. What in recent years has led to people believing this? Bottom line is, win and you don't have to worry about it.

[Kung Wu]

The problem with that logic is that these lower mid majors like Murray State aren't consistently high RPI teams. IMO, it's a **** shoot for 3G when scheduling teams like this. He could go out and get some of these teams on the schedule, but what if they turn out to have a down season. The BB gaurantees a good RPI game (as long as WSU is worthy) and gives them a chance to play a team they may be competing with for an at large spot.

Agreed. Plus it's one less game HC3GM has to struggle with to find a match. As we have seen, that's not as easy as some would believe, so having a quality RPI game on auto-pilot is probably welcome.

[WuShock Reaper]

Well here we are: four weeks before ESPN Bracketbuster Selection Monday. We have rounded the first turn and Murray State seems to have a comfortable lead and with few challenges on its schedule. Iona was looking great at the first turn but then stumbled badly as they lost at home to Hofstra (RPI #246). Davidson had a huge win in Kansas City against the Jayhawks and won't face any real stiff competition for at least three weeks. Ohio out of the Mid-American Conference is on a 9-game winning streak, with four of this coming on the road (including a win at Northern Iowa). Cleveland State has also gotten off stride at the first turn as jockeys jockey for position as Cleveland lost at home to Youngstown State (RPI #142).

TIER 1
Murray State - #16, Iona - #29, Davidson - #37, Ohio - #38, Cleveland State - #61

TIER 2
Oral Roberts - #65, Virginia Commonwealth - #67, South Dakota State - #73, Loyola-Maryland - #75, North Dakota State - #80

TIER 3
Kent State - #85, Wisconsin-Milwaukee - #86, Butler - #87, New Mexico State - #97, Weber State - #106

TIER 4
Charleston Southern - #113, Green Bay - #124, Coastal Carolina - #139, Manhattan - #140,
George Mason - #143

BREAKDOWN LANE (little hope for this teams, but let's not give up on them just yet)
Utah State - #148, Northern Colorado - #160, Northwestern State - #167, Montana - #169,
Morgan State - #173

DOG FOOD FACTORY IN OKLAHOMA
Northeastern - #175, Maine - #177, Loyola-Marymount #180, Albany - #181, UC Riverside - #183

GLUE FACTORY IN IOWA
UMKC - #187, Eastern Kentucky - #192, Ball State - #193, Central Michigan - #198, Vermont - #204

[WuShock Reaper]

TOP 15 GAMES AND POSSIBLE MVC MATCHUPS
1. Long Beach State (RPI #14) - Big West vs. Murray State (RPI #16) - Ohio Valley
2. Saint Mary's College (RPI #23) - West Coast vs. Creighton (RPI #20) - Missouri Valley
3. Northern Iowa (RPI #22) - Missouri Valley vs. Iona (RPI #29) - Metro Atlantic
4. Wichita State (RPI #27) - Missouri Valley vs. Davidson (RPI #37) - Southern
5. Lamar (RPI #46) - Southland vs. Ohio (RPI #38) - Mid-American
6. College of Charleston (RPI #56) - Southern vs. Missouri State (RPI #60) - Missouri Valley
7. Indiana State (RPI #62) - Missouri Valley vs. Cleveland State (RPI #61) - Horizon
8. Fairfield (RPI #82) - Metro Atlantic - Summit League vs. Oral Roberts (RPI #65)
9. Drake (RPI #95) - Missouri Valley vs. Virginia Commonwealth (RPI #67) - Colonial
10. Nevada (RPI #104) - WAC - Summit League vs. South Dakota State (RPI #73)
11. Akron (RPI #111) - Mid-American - Metro Atlantic vs. Loyola-Maryland (RPI #75)
12. Western Michigan (RPI #116) - Mid-American vs. North Dakota State (RPI #80) - Summit League
13. Oakland (RPI #117) - Summit League vs. Kent State (RPI #85) - Mid-American
14. Buffalo (RPI #118) - Mid-American - Horizon vs. Wisconsin-Milwaukee (RPI #86)
15. Cal Poly (RPI #121) - Big West vs. Butler (RPI #87) - Horizon

Missouri Valley - 6 teams
Mid-American - 5 teams
Summit League - 4 teams
Horizon - 3 teams
Metro Atlantic - 3 teams
Big West - 2 teams
Southern - 2 teams
Colonial - 1 team
Ohio Valley - 1 team
Southland - 1 team
WAC - 1 team
West Coast 1 team

[BikeIdiot]

The really good BB teams can lose and still get in, Shockers have proven that in the past. If you are a borderline team and can't win a BB matchup, maybe the NIT where you belong anyway. As i have stated above, I think the positives outnumber the negatives. Most people assume that if there was no BB game, that the shocks would get a good team on the schedule instead. What in recent years has led to people believing this? Bottom line is, win and you don't have to worry about it.

I guess my point is that BB only works for borderline teams in the first place. It seems to feed the Mid-major monster.

a

[shocker3]

I guess my point is that BB only works for borderline teams in the first place. It seems to feed the Mid-major monster.

a

I totally agree with you. IMO, this glorified 1-AA basketball tournament only cements the image of the Valley as a one bid league (even though we were basically a multiple bid league from the time multiple bids were first possible up until 4 years ago).

But we have this discussion every year, I am tired of talking about it. We are stuck in the event for now anyway. So we might as well make the best of it and win our game. If we lose it, it could very well cost us our chance to dance.

[shocks02]

I want that game at Murray State. Anything else will be a disappointment.

[ShockerFever]

I totally agree with you. IMO, this glorified 1-AA basketball tournament only cements the image of the Valley as a one bid league (even though we were basically a multiple bid league from the time multiple bids were first possible up until 4 years ago).

But we have this discussion every year, I am tired of talking about it. We are stuck in the event for now anyway. So we might as well make the best of it and win our game. If we lose it, it could very well cost us our chance to dance.

Kinda funny considering we never win in it. Maybe that's why you don't like it very much? Because we suck at it? And if we aren't even good enough for a "glorified I-AA basketball tournament that cements us a one bid league", then what does that really say about us?

Here's an idea: WIN a meaningful game in this event for once. That's how you solve that problem.

[WuShock Reaper]

Todays (01/02/12) Bracketbuster Games of Note:

Ohio (RPI #38) lost vs. Robert Morris (RPI #90)
Virginia Commonwealth (RPI #67) beat at Hofstra (RPI #246)
Loyola-Maryland (RPI #75) lost vs. Niagara (RPI #253)
Kent State (RPI #85) beat vs. DII - Shawnee State (NA)
New Mexico State (RPI #97) beat at Cal State Bakersfield (RPI #202)
Charleston Southern (RPI #113) lost at High Point (RPI #291)
Coastal Carolina (RPI #139) lost at Campbell (RPI #176)
Manhattan (RPI #140) lost vs. Rider (RPI #286)
George Mason (RPI #143) beat William and Mary (RPI #332)

[shox1989]

TOP 15 GAMES AND POSSIBLE MVC MATCHUPS
1. Long Beach State (RPI #14) - Big West vs. Murray State (RPI #16) - Ohio Valley
2. Saint Mary's College (RPI #23) - West Coast vs. Creighton (RPI #20) - Missouri Valley
3. Northern Iowa (RPI #22) - Missouri Valley vs. Iona (RPI #29) - Metro Atlantic
4. Wichita State (RPI #27) - Missouri Valley vs. Davidson (RPI #37) - Southern
5. Lamar (RPI #46) - Southland vs. Ohio (RPI #38) - Mid-American
6. College of Charleston (RPI #56) - Southern vs. Missouri State (RPI #60) - Missouri Valley
7. Indiana State (RPI #62) - Missouri Valley vs. Cleveland State (RPI #61) - Horizon
8. Fairfield (RPI #82) - Metro Atlantic - Summit League vs. Oral Roberts (RPI #65)
9. Drake (RPI #95) - Missouri Valley vs. Virginia Commonwealth (RPI #67) - Colonial
10. Nevada (RPI #104) - WAC - Summit League vs. South Dakota State (RPI #73)
11. Akron (RPI #111) - Mid-American - Metro Atlantic vs. Loyola-Maryland (RPI #75)
12. Western Michigan (RPI #116) - Mid-American vs. North Dakota State (RPI #80) - Summit League
13. Oakland (RPI #117) - Summit League vs. Kent State (RPI #85) - Mid-American
14. Buffalo (RPI #118) - Mid-American - Horizon vs. Wisconsin-Milwaukee (RPI #86)
15. Cal Poly (RPI #121) - Big West vs. Butler (RPI #87) - Horizon

Missouri Valley - 6 teams
Mid-American - 5 teams
Summit League - 4 teams
Horizon - 3 teams
Metro Atlantic - 3 teams
Big West - 2 teams
Southern - 2 teams
Colonial - 1 team
Ohio Valley - 1 team
Southland - 1 team
WAC - 1 team
West Coast 1 team

You actually need to use projected rpi instead of current rpi. Most of the teams play in such bad conferences that their rpi can only get worse between now and the end of the year.

[ShockTalk]

Based on rpiforecast.com and their projected ranking of teams:

Home: #27 Creighton, #30 Murray St, #37 Ohio, #42 Iona, #49 Mo St, #59 Oral Roberts, #65 S Dakota St

Away: #17 St. Mary's, #20 WSU, #53 Long Beach St., #58 UNI, #78 C of C, #85 Akron, # 88 Buffalo

Non-Atl-10, MWC, and C-USA teams not participating who would be rank between #25-#69:
Gonzaga, Belmont, Denver, Harvard, Middle Tenn, Wagner

[WuShock Reaper]

Todays (01/03/12) Bracketbuster Games of Note

Iona (RPI #29) vs. Sienna (RPI #266)
Oral Roberts (RPI #66) at Oakland (RPI #118)
Wisconsin-Milwaukee (RPI #86) at Western Michigan (RPI #117)


Commentary:
I am rooting for Iona, Oral Roberts, and Western Michigan.