2012 Bracket Busters Projections

[WuShock Reaper]

OK, I just looked at the rank before and as close as I could to after the results were included. The actual number may have improved, but the ranking of that number went down because of other teams who probably had games against sub-100 RPI teams and improved their actul RPI number more than WSU improved their actual number. That lowers WSU's rank, even though the actual number improves.

As the season goes on, a lot of mid-level BCS teams will be playing other BCS mid-tier teams with RPI's in the 80-100 range while WSU plays opponents with RPI's in the 110-150 range. That is going to continue to erode WSU's rank. It doesn't really matter much what the actual RPI number is. What matters is how many teams have better actul numbers.

As of today:

WSU 1st nine conference games RPI average is - #141

WSU 2nd nine conference games RPI average is - #87

[Aargh]

As of today:

WSU 1st nine conference games RPI average is - #141

WSU 2nd nine conference games RPI average is - #87

You're making my point for me. With what the Shox have shown against RPI 141, can we expect the same against RPI 87? The Shox are 6-1 against a weak schedule. That leaves 11 games against a stronger schedule. An .857 W/L % against RPI 141 doesn't project to an .857 W/L % against RPI 87.

The Shox have to improve over what they've done and what they've demonstrated so far this season to be a contender in the at-large hunt.

[shox1989]

....... This cannibalization of the middle and lower tier teams in the Valley is really going to start hurting RPI's down the road unless there are 4-5 teams that really separate themselves from the rest of the pack. If it's WSU/CU on top, and then the rest just eat themselves alive, we can't afford to lose to anyone but CU.

Unfortunately that is the way it is shaping up. There is still a lot of conference games left, but if it stays this way with just Cu and WSU separating themselves than any loss to anyone else beside CU will not be a good loss. Fortunately I think with our win over UNLV we can afford one bad loss (which as of now anyway, pretty much means against anyone but CU). If we get more than one (which is very possible in this conference) than it could become very dicey on selection day.

I just wish the bottom teams would quit beating any more of the top 4 or 5 teams.

[WuShock Reaper]

Todays (01/18/12) Bracketbuster Games of Note:

Murray State (RPI #28) at Morehead State (RPI #209)
*Ohio (RPI #82) at vs. Kent State (RPI #101)
George Mason (RPI #112) vs. Delaware (RPI #262)


Commentary
*=Key Games

Ohio at Kent State is the best game of the evening. Also, Murray State better bring its best game as they are on the road. Last night North Dakota State got beat to a bad team on the road and it has now cost them an opportunity for an ESPN bracketbuster TV game as their RPI dropped 19 points to RPI #110.

[WuShock Reaper]

Todays (01/18/12) Bracketbuster Games of Note:

Murray State (RPI #28) WON at Morehead State (RPI #209)
*Ohio (RPI #82) WON vs. Kent State (RPI #101)
George Mason (RPI #112) WON vs. Delaware (RPI #262)


Commentary
*=Key Games

Is the pressure getting to Murray State. Down early they make good run in the second half to comeback from down nine to pull out the win on the road. The other two teams; Ohio and George Mason win as well.

[WuShock Reaper]

Todays (01/19/12) Bracketbuster Games of Note:

Oral Roberts (RPI #45) vs. IPFW (RPI #248)
*Davidson (RPI #51) vs. College Of Charleston (RPI #94)
New Mexico State (RPI #70) at San Jose State (RPI #275)
Weber State (RPI #75) vs. Northern Arizona (RPI #310)
Virginia Commonwealth (RPI #83) vs. William & Mary (RPI #307)
Loyola-Maryland (RPI #85) vs. Siena (RPI #216)
Butler (RPI #107) at Illinois-Chicago (RPI #290)
Utah State (RPI #128) at Seattle University - Independent (RPI #298)
Montana (RPI #131) vs. Northern Colorado (RPI #223)
*Loyola-Marymount (RPI #141) at BYU (RPI #40)


Commentary * = Key Games

Best game of the night is: Davidson (RPI #51) vs. College Of Charleston (RPI #94). Also a lot of teams playing to keep the ESPN Bracketbuster TV game hopes alive or to improve their standing.

[Capitol Shock II]

How many bracket buster teams are in the top 100 right now?

[WuShock Reaper]

How many bracket buster teams are in the top 100 right now?

As of today, 23 teams have an RPI of 100 or better. 14 "Home" teams and 9 "Away" teams.

In comparison, there were 22 teams last year on ESPN Bracketbuster Selection Monday who had an RPI of 100 or better.

[Capitol Shock II]

Thanks!

[Ta Town Shocker]

I watched the end of the VCU W & M game and what a great game it was. VCU pulled it out in OT in front of a great crowd. Watch out for freshman W & M guard Marcus Thrornton though. The 6'4 170 lb freshman is extremely talented and had his way against the VCU defense.

[Kung Wu]

WnM with a nice 300+ RPI.

[ShockTalk]

I watched the end of the VCU W & M game and what a great game it was. VCU pulled it out in OT in front of a great crowd. Watch out for freshman W & M guard Marcus Thrornton though. The 6'4 170 lb freshman is extremely talented and had his way against the VCU defense.

W&M is a 300+ RPI team. VCU avoided total disaster at home. Of course, it means very little as far as Dancing as the only team from the Colonial will be the automatic. How fast downhill has this conference gone in one year.

Edit: @Kung Wu:, notice how slow this old man types his thoughts.

[ShockTalk]

Not to steal any thunder from @WuShock Reaper:, but I'm going to add 2 more BB games of interest tonight.

For some time, the Away Teams have projected to have 4 teams clearly at the top. Depending on how WSU and these other teams do will determine their opponent for BB. WSU put a big dent in one of those 4 last night by beating UNI. The other two are playing tonight.

At half, Long Beach down at Cal Poly 39-32.

Also at half, St Mary's leads a weak Pepperdine 29-21.

[Kung Wu]

W&M is a 300+ RPI team. VCU avoided total disaster at home. Of course, it means very little as far as Dancing as the only team from the Colonial will be the automatic. How fast downhill has this conference gone in one year.

Edit: @Kung Wu:, notice how slow this old man types his thoughts.

But you added more insight!

[WuShock Reaper]

Todays (01/19/12) Bracketbuster Games of Note: FINAL UPDATE

Oral Roberts (RPI #45) WON vs. IPFW (RPI #248)
*Davidson (RPI #51) WON vs. College Of Charleston (RPI #94)
New Mexico State (RPI #70) WON at San Jose State (RPI #275)
Weber State (RPI #75) WON vs. Northern Arizona (RPI #310)
Virginia Commonwealth (RPI #83) WON vs. William & Mary (RPI #307)
Loyola-Maryland (RPI #85) WON vs. Siena (RPI #216)
Butler (RPI #107) WON at Illinois-Chicago (RPI #290)
Utah State (RPI #128) LOST at Seattle University - Independent (RPI #298)
Montana (RPI #131) WON vs. Northern Colorado (RPI #223)
*Loyola-Marymount (RPI #141) WON at BYU (RPI #40)


Commentary * = Key Games

Great win for Davidson and all-in-all a good night for teams trying to get to the ESPN Bracketbuster TV games. Also, how did you like my prediction for the big upset of key game of the night Loyola-Marymount at BYU? Loyola moved up 20 RPI points and is now just barely out of the picture for TV game.