Wichita State vs Cincinnati Game Thread

[Kel Varnsen]

You will never get evidence .. why? How do you measure "talent"? Recruiting rankings? So Fred and Ron weren't talented? Who won? well that's a self confirming bias there.

Frankly you just have to believe what you want to believe, but there is a reason very few National Titles are won by teams playing primarily freshman.

Team's efficiency margins would have to, on the whole, increase as players' experience increases. That would be a good start.

The last five National Champions and their experience ranks (out of 353, where 1 is most experienced and 353 is least experienced):
Virginia - 203
Villanova - 280
North Carolina - 103
Villanova - 181
Duke - 331

National champions do not play seniors and juniors any more than freshmen and sophomores.

[kcshocker11]

Ouch! We better figure out Jarron Ciumberland...... Seems always one player lights us up.

[ShockerFever]

Yeah, I know, but I'm gonna do it anyway...…...what would y'all thought if Cumberland came out to center court afterwards and blew kisses to all of us?

The victor goes the spoils.

And let me guess, Cincinnati would've lost 7 of their last 9 after that, amirite?

[ShockerFever]

We could possibly lose 7-8 conference games this year and still get in the tourney.... anyone still longing for the Valley is crazy. UNI is sitting over there on the wrong side of the bubble with 2 conference losses and ZERO chances left to make a statement. They haven't had a potential statement game since ... Dec 10th. We still have at least 4 left.

7-8 conference games? LOL. Are you on crack?

[Kel Varnsen]

Then why doesn't Kentucky win the title almost every year?

Stickboy46 made the case that experience overcomes small talent/coaching gaps, then I said I haven't seen evidence that it does. Not sure how that correlates to what you were asking, but since you asked:

A couple of reasons Kentucky doesn't win the national title every year:
- They've never been exceptional from the 3PT line (best was 74th in 2016)
- Sometimes recruiting rankings are not perfect at evaluating high school talent (the team is really not that talented)

[Topshock]

Team's efficiency margins would have to, on the whole, increase as players' experience increases. That would be a good start.

The last five National Champions and their experience ranks (out of 353, where 1 is most experienced and 353 is least experienced):
Virginia - 203
Villanova - 280
North Carolina - 103
Villanova - 181
Duke - 331

National champions do not play seniors and juniors any more than freshmen and sophomores.

This is a good article on the subject.

[Shockm]

It's ironic that the same play that Cumberland beat us with last night (against our best defender) at the end of the game, is the same play that GM used last week at Tulsa that JB didn't execute (two offensive players in each corner and the player driving to the basket passing to the corner if those defenders collapse on him). It's also the same play that SHJ used to win 2 games (I think against Temple and SMU) last year at the end of the game, and the same play that Landry Shamet failed to execute against Cincy in the AAC Championship game two years ago. Landry didn't see the corner defender collapse to help on his drive and failed to pass to Frankamp in the corner who was wide open for a 3.

It's ironic partially because one of our most maligned players (SHJ) in recent history is the one to execute it best for us because of his quick burst of speed. Cumberland is the perfect type of player to execute the play because of his strength, ability to drive one on one, and his ability to shoot from outside (so you have to respect his shot).

[Stickboy46]

It's ironic that the same play that Cumberland beat us with last night (against our best defender) at the end of the game, is the same play that GM used last week at Tulsa that JB didn't execute (two offensive players in each corner and the player driving to the basket passing to the corner if those defenders collapse on him). It's also the same play that SHJ used to win 2 games (I think against Temple and SMU) last year at the end of the game, and the same play that Landry Shamet failed to execute against Cincy in the AAC Championship game two years ago. Landry didn't see the corner defender collapse to help on his drive and failed to pass to Frankamp in the corner who was wide open for a 3.

It's ironic partially because one of our most maligned players (SHJ) in recent history is the one to execute it best for us because of his quick burst of speed. Cumberland is the perfect type of player to execute the play because of his strength, ability to drive one on one, and his ability to shoot from outside (so you have to respect his shot).

My biggest question and possible learning moment ... Why did Dexter line up on Cumberlands left to guard him. Force him to go left to start. Drive him towards the middle. I'm not a coach, so maybe there is a reason but that seemed like a big miss to me.

[Kel Varnsen]

This is a good article on the subject.

Interesting quotes (this article was very poorly-written):

Sweet Sixteen teams are .09 years younger than the Round of 32 ones and .12 years younger than the average tournament team as a whole.

He's not inspiring a lot of confidence in his methodology with quotes like this:

But seriously, Kentucky screws things up. Take away the teams that made the Final Four that are dramatically younger than everyone else and averages sky rocket. This year's Final Four without Kentucky averages nearly .2 years more in experience than the rest of the field at 1.93. Last year's without Michigan jumps .25 years to 1.79 and 2012 leaps to the tournament average.

So he takes teams out of the data that don't support what he wants to write about?

[Topshock]

Interesting quotes (this article was very poorly-written):


He's not inspiring a lot of confidence in his methodology with quotes like this:


So he takes teams out of the data that don't support what he wants to write about?

We could definitely both claim that article proves our point. Probably because we could argue all day from either side, lol.

I took from the article that if you have superior talent, you can beat anyone, but if you have two teams with similar talent the experienced team has the advantage pretty much making both of us right or wrong.

[WstateU]

Now that the dust has settled and my nuts are healing (after the swift kick last night); here's a few of my up-close observations from the game...

I had fun... if a person didn't have a rooting interest, it was a great game to watch
Read through the game thread when I got home; no comments about the ESPN announcers, so I assume they were satisfactory
Above average crowd... we continued to bring and Kellen was encouraging our participation - :)
Lynn went down again for a sip of water... shm
Asborn was enjoying himself on the bench during the comeback... noticed an assistance coach had to calm him down
Cummerbund is a "sit down and shut up player"... we'd get to 'roaring' and he'd immediately let the air out of our sails
Although they didn't play their best, it looked like the guys were having fun last night.... there were a lot of smiles throughout the game and I think coach Marshall told the kids to have fun to try and take some pressure off them... the exchange between Jamie and Tyson (when the foul was initially called on Jamie and changed to Tyson) was funny stuff
6pm games are tough; a train held up traffic on north Hillside for several minutes and it's still rush hour
Guess early ESPN games start on time... it seems like other games tip-off 5 minutes after the top of the hour... the arena was half-full at tip-off, but filled up by the first time-out.
I once was a big Greenbay Packers fan... I once was a big KC Chiefs fan... I once was a big KC Royals fan... now I'm just a Shocker fan... the last two games are the reason I'm only a Shocker fan... just can't live with the 'ups and downs' of supporting 4 teams
I like beer!

P.S. One piece of criticism. Why in the 'Wide World of Sports' would we not promote that the 1989 National Championship Baseball team was going to be honored at half time (I apologize if it was promoted and I missed it). Regardless, why wouldn't Don Hall be telling us during the last time out before half to stay in our seats, because there is going to be a 'huge' presentation immediately following the end of the half. The place was half-empty to honor the greatest achievement in WSU sports history. I'm sorry, I feel we miss (drop the ball) too many great opportunities to honor our past. It's embarrassing to see these guys get honored when so many fans are out in the concourse. I know some of us have to pee (me included), but can't the majority wait 5 minutes? We should have been reminded before the half ended. Yep, the blame has to start at the top and Boatright has to wear this one.

[WuDrWu]

I agree with the well coached thing...their offensive flow is a thing of beauty...

Good to see you last night

Always great to see you!

Their offense was super and has been since they basically started just giving the ball to Cumberland. He's as good as Fred at not getting sped up.

That one play they ran that had a back cut (kind of as a fake) then another one right behind it was gorgeous. Cincinnati may well have found the next Gregg Marshall.

We made a terrible mistake not getting the ball out of Cumberland's hands at the end. He turned his back to the basket 30+ feet from the basket and invited the double team. Make somebody else beat you. Anybody. Who cares if they toss it to Vogt for a dunk? DON'T LET CUMBERLAND BEAT YOU! And any time a guy turns his back from the basket, and he's the best flipping player in the league, and he's beaten you like 156000 times in a row, and you know he's been told to take the shot...please make someone else beat you.

I applaud the kids for playing hard and never quitting. They almost pulled it off. Sometimes it's luck. We've been beaten by 2 if not miracles then highly improbable shots. Otherwise we're tied for first.

But, we aren't. On to Houston.

Lastly, anyone complaining that Erik caused his own fate, Cumberland "shooshed" the crowd, fired the 3 guns, "shoosed" the crowd again, and talked smack to players and crowd during his personal 8-0 run. It was 10 times worse than anything Erik has ever done. Just sayin.

[Kung Wu]

He's not inspiring a lot of confidence in his methodology with quotes like this:

So he takes teams out of the data that don't support what he wants to write about?

He is just showing that there is a single glaring outlier. It's not unusual for statisticians to remove the smallest and biggest data points and recalculate in case there are extreme outliers, and this wouldn't be different. It would give a more accurate picture of what should be expected for all teams that aren't named Kentucky or some team consisting of five Grant Gibbs (who has just committed to joining Creighton for his 10th senior year by the way).

[asiseeit]

Water under the bridge now but here is what I would have done the last 12 seconds on defense. They were expecting
us to play man and, of course, wanted Cumberland to take his man to the basket and we should have expected exactly
that. Soooo, I play a 3-2 zone with JE and AM on each side underneath and DG, DD, and TW playing at the three point
line making him shoot over our taller defenders. Even if Cumberland gets all the way to the rim he has
to shoot over AM or JE. More than likely if he does get through the first three perimeter defenders he has to pull up short
and still shoot over one of our big guys

[Stickboy46]

Water under the bridge now but here is what I would have done the last 12 seconds on defense. They were expecting
us to play man and, of course, wanted Cumberland to take his man to the basket and we should have expected exactly
that. Soooo, I play a 3-2 zone with JE and AM on each side underneath and DG, DD, and TW playing at the three point
line making him shoot over our taller defenders. Even if Cumberland gets all the way to the rim he has
to shoot over AM or JE. More than likely if he does get through the first three perimeter defenders he has to pull up short
and still shoot over one of our big guys

But that opens up lots of opportunities for 3s. Especially with the 2 big men in there. Goal one was to prevent a 3. They did that. Goal two was to not foul a made shot. They failed that.