2020-21 Schedule

[pie n eye]

Aargh Knowing that one person, on average, infects a little over two people, and that the virus has been circulating in the states since at least February, a month before we began any kind of serious testing or lockdowns, is it really that far fetched that there are 56 undiagnosed cases for every one diagnosed case?

I’m also unsure why you view the fact that there are 56 million untested people as a “MAJOR” problem. If more people have had this and recovered or were asymptomatic it’s a good thing in my opinion. Testing every one of them is irrelevant at this point for determining the IFR. As long as we are confident in the accuracy of the antibody tests we can sample parts of the population and be confident in extrapolating the data. How accurate the tests are at this point is a legitimate question which is why most are taking study that says we’re underestimating the number of infected by a power of 40-80 with a grain of salt. However, those general population antibody studies are happening in a few different areas of the world and they’re all saying the same thing. More people have had this than we know. Which is scary, because it spreads quickly, but also reassuring because it’s not as deadly as the 5.7 CFR indicates.

You seem to be saying that once a person contracts Covid, they are infectious forever. To my understanding that is not the case. Yes, it can be transmitted by an asymptomatic person but as far as I know that person will cycle through the disease and no longer be a transmission risk after a period of time the same as if they had symptoms and recovered.

[WuShock16]

So...any info about possible opponents?

I know that thread hijacking is a ShockerNet tradition, but for THIS topic (Covid), can we keep it limited to the off-topic thread?

[pie n eye]

Aargh,
The counter to your testing point is simple - you may test a person on Tuesday and they come back negative. Then they come into contact with the virus on Friday (and would presumably then test positive).
Do we keep testing every person in the country on a weekly basis? To echo MVJ's point... who pays for all of these tests?
The 'we need to test, test and test some more' is a popular public chant these days and sure sounds nice. But in reality, it nothing more than window dressing (and something for Nancy to spout off about and pretend to be concerned for her flock).

That is all.

Come on now, can’t you just have a conversation and not bring in all the extracurricular bullshit? I doubt you know Nancy Pelosi from Nancy ****ing Drew so it’s probably best not to act like you can see the heart of a (wo)man.

That being said, I both agree and disagree with you regarding tests. I don’t think it’s feasible or necessary to test all 350+ million people. If we were going to do that I think the serology test would be most beneficial. That way we would know, with the highest possible accuracy, how many people have been infected so far which would tell us exactly how contagious and deadly it is. I think the same goal can be accomplished by randomly sampling smaller groups of people around the country. It’s much more cost effective but will still require far more tests than we have right now.

It’s almost like the stay at home measures are a reset button. We didn’t begin testing and contact tracing soon enough and by the time we realized what we were dealing with we were already seeing community spread. Once that begins contact tracing is basically impossible from what I understand. So, we lockdown to slow the spread. If it’s effective, we can get back to a point where contact tracing is feasible and that’s how we keep it under control.

In order to do that effectively we’re going to need a lot of tests until we can come up with a vaccine, herd immunity, or it disappears. Like a miracle.

[Aargh]

So, we stay locked up until we administer 350,000,000 tests? 400,000,000 while we retest every positive? Serious question. And who pays for the tests? The government that just lost a whole bunch of income tax revenue?

Oh, hell no. We just need to get to a point where we can start some random testing and then do contact followups with those who test positive.

We're still only testing those with obvious symptoms. We could do targeted random testing of varying sample sizes based on area infection rates. That would tell us what percent of the population was contagious. THAT would give us some intelligent data on the relative safety of easing or maintaining mitigation. Then do contact tracking on any positives that were found.

Nationally, I'd expect that fewer than 50,000 random tests would give us an actual infection rate, with good breakouts for geographic areas. Contact tracking would give us the R(0) rate (how many people each infected person infects). If that number is above 1, we're losing ground. If that number is below 1, we're gaining. Then ongoing random testing in areas that have reopened would give us data on the relative safety or danger of reopening.

For WSU, a couple hundred random tests of students intending to be on campus would give a fairly reliable infection rate for the entire student body. Probably also provide good data on asymptomatic positives in young adults.

We're behind on testing, so we don't have usable data. Random testing and contact tracking has been the pattern for the more successful nations in reducing the economic impact. All we have to work with is when hospitalizations and deaths go down, states are going to reopen. There will be a lag of 1 or 2 months before the wisdom of that decision is known.

One more comment. We've had around 55,000 Covid deaths this month, and the month isn't over. If we have only 74,000 deaths by August, which is the latest model, then we're pretty much in the clear. That would be an incredible decline in deaths, which would mean there was an incredible decline in infections.

[MoValley John]

Mandatory random testing or voluntary random testing?

[MoValley John]

Back to the 2020-21 schedule, more and more colleges and universities have announced that they will be open to start the fall semester. As more announce, expect literally all of them to open. If a school doesnt open and many others do, it could be a long-term crushing blow to enrollment.

Schools will open, athletics will compete.

[Aargh]

Back to the 2020-21 schedule, more and more colleges and universities have announced that they will be open to start the fall semester. As more announce, expect literally all of them to open. If a school doesnt open and many others do, it could be a long-term crushing blow to enrollment.

Schools will open, athletics will compete.

I'm behind this 100%. I think we should be able to bring the BB players onto campus now and get going with summer drills. The only holdup I see is that they would need to be tested. I'm not confident that basketball players would get a high enough priority for testing to get them tested.

[ShockRef]

Come on now, can’t you just have a conversation and not bring in all the extracurricular bullshit? I doubt you know Nancy Pelosi from Nancy ****ing Drew so it’s probably best not to act like you can see the heart of a (wo)man.

That being said, I both agree and disagree with you regarding tests. I don’t think it’s feasible or necessary to test all 350+ million people. If we were going to do that I think the serology test would be most beneficial. That way we would know, with the highest possible accuracy, how many people have been infected so far which would tell us exactly how contagious and deadly it is. I think the same goal can be accomplished by randomly sampling smaller groups of people around the country. It’s much more cost effective but will still require far more tests than we have right now.

It’s almost like the stay at home measures are a reset button. We didn’t begin testing and contact tracing soon enough and by the time we realized what we were dealing with we were already seeing community spread. Once that begins contact tracing is basically impossible from what I understand. So, we lockdown to slow the spread. If it’s effective, we can get back to a point where contact tracing is feasible and that’s how we keep it under control.

In order to do that effectively we’re going to need a lot of tests until we can come up with a vaccine, herd immunity, or it disappears. Like a miracle.

Pie eater,
Always good to have an idea of who is what once they reply to a post.
Now we are aware you are a dues paying, card carrying member of the 'Nancy P Queenie Weenie' club.
Duly noted.

That is all.

[Atxshoxfan]

I saw a 40 something yr old athlete telll some sports reporter that age was just a number. Can't wait until this guy hits his mid 60's.
i think I'll be ready to contract and die of the virus in another 10-15 yrs.
Sounds like a good cure for our social security and Medicaid problems to me.

[JVShocker]

Back to the 2020-21 schedule, more and more colleges and universities have announced that they will be open to start the fall semester. As more announce, expect literally all of them to open. If a school doesnt open and many others do, it could be a long-term crushing blow to enrollment.

Schools will open, athletics will compete.

And not just enrollment. It will be a crushing blow financially. You thought smaller Universities were having $$$problems before all this? Without a student body on campus many would be forced to close.

[WstateU]

And not just enrollment. It will be a crushing blow financially. You thought smaller Universities were having $$$problems before all this? Without a student body on campus many would be forced to close.

You'll see numerous colleges across the country and Kansas merge or closing. There'll be more 'affiliations' similar to WSU Tech. You heard it here first; this will be a great opportunity for WSU moving forward. BCCC will become a WSU affiliate and we'll immediately resolve the football issue. 2021 (this is a "2020-21 Schedule" thread) home games will be played at BG Products Veterans Stadium in El Dorado until the new stadium is completed in the spring of 2022 on the southwest corner of K-96 & Oliver.

If you acquire or affiliate, they will come.










"I've just closed my eyes again
Climbed aboard the dream weaver train
Driver take away my worries of today
And leave tomorrow behind
Oh dream weaver
I believe you can get me through the night
Oh dream weaver
I believe we can reach the morning light
Fly me high through the starry skies
Maybe to an astral plane
Cross the highways of fantasy
Help me to forget today's pain
Oh dream weaver
I believe you can get me through the night
Oh dream weaver
I believe we can reach the morning light
Though the dawn may be coming soon
There still…"

[SB Shock]

I believe classes and football will be back in the fall, with at least 50 percent of fans allowed into the games

That is probably the cup half-full view. Here is actually what they are saying (which is at this point they don’t know).

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/29088227/how-coronavirus-affect-college-football-season-2020

[WstateU]

That is probably the cup half-full view. Here is actually what they are saying (which is at this point they don’t know).

http://www.espn.com/college-football...ll-season-2020

"which is at this point they don't know"...

[DUShock]

Honestly, I know four people who have/had COVID, one of whom has passed, two of whom are MD’s in Denver and NYC.

[WuShock16]

Honestly, I know four people who have/had COVID, one of whom has passed, two of whom are MD’s in Denver and NYC.

So...is that code for getting H/H series with Colorado and St. John's?