Realistic shot at NIT?

[AZ Shocker]

I was and still am of the opinion that the AAC railroaded our chances of establishing a better conference record by stacking the early schedule against us out of the gate. I get it...but it was obviously intentional.

Had it been reversed and had less upper half teams early in the season...our new squad would've had some time to develope, work out the kinks and gain some confidence for the latter (tougher) part of the conference schedule. Who knows...maybe we would have been a little more seasoned by that time and could've grabbed a couple/few additional wins.

Having said that...it was what it was and should be considered a positive valuable measure of MTXE moving forward to TOMORROW!!!!

GO SHOCKS!!!!!

[Stickboy46]

Needs these teams to lose today, Wednesday (03/13/19):

Clemson or North Carolina State -
Oregon -
Saint John's -
UCLA -
Syracuse -
Butler -
Nebraska -
Colorado -
Arizona -

Arizona just dropped to USC.

[WuShock Reaper]

That helped a little. :)

[Stickboy46]

I was and still am of the opinion that the AAC railroaded our chances of establishing a better conference record by stacking the early schedule against us out of the gate. I get it...but it was obviously intentional.

Had it been reversed and had less upper half teams early in the season...our new squad would've had some time to develope, work out the kinks and gain some confidence for the latter (tougher) part of the conference schedule. Who knows...maybe we would have been a little more seasoned by that time and could've grabbed a couple/few additional wins.

Having said that...it was what it was and should be considered a positive valuable measure of MTXE moving forward to TOMORROW!!!!

GO SHOCKS!!!!!

It was intentional. We were projected 8th. We weren't supposed to be good. They wanted to highlight the big games at the end of the season to maximize exposure and bids (like it tried to do last year too). It's exactly what they should do as a conference.

[RoyalShock]

Here's one NIT prognostication that came across my twitter feed:

[WuShock Reaper]

WuShock Reaper's Current predictions (as of games thru 03/12/19)

NET	RPI	SOS	Team	Conference	NIT Rank	NIT Seed	T W %	C W %
38	62	5	Texas	Big 12	1	1	52%	44%
41	60	180	Furman	Southern	2	1	76%	72%
46	42	200	Belmont	Ohio Valley	3	1	83%	89%
48	70	206	Lipscomb	Atlantic Sun	4	1	77%	88%
51	82	44	Indiana	Big Ten	5	2	55%	40%
53	55	50	Memphis	American Athletic	6	2	61%	61%
54	51	15	Creighton	Big East	7	2	57%	50%
57	30	109	UNCG	Southern	8	2	81%	83%
58	61	21	Alabama	SEC	9	3	55%	44%
60	35	118	Toledo	Mid-American	10	3	80%	72%
61	66	69	Oregon	Pac-12	11	3	61%	56%
63	81	24	Butler	Big East	12	3	52%	39%
64	87	49	Arkansas	SEC	13	4	55%	44%
65	69	90	Dayton	Atlantic 10	14	4	68%	72%
68	43	116	Davidson	Atlantic 10	15	4	73%	78%
69	77	110	Colorado	Pac-12	16	4	63%	56%
70	84	47	Xavier	Big East	17	5	55%	50%
71	67	159	East Tennessee State	Southern	18	5	71%	72%
72	91	126	San Francisco	West Coast	19	5	67%	56%
74	48	196	Hofstra	Colonial Athletic	20	5	79%	83%
75	89	55	Providence	Big East	21	6	55%	39%
77	78	78	Georgetown	Big East	22	6	61%	50%
80	94	30	South Carolina	SEC	23	6	50%	61%
81	105	202	Fresno State	Mountain West	24	6	72%	72%
84	106	96	Oregon State	Pac-12	25	7	60%	56%
85	63	61	BYU	West Coast	26	7	59%	69%
87	49	150	Utah Valley	Western Athletic	27	7	72%	75%
89	92	77	Tulsa	American Athletic	28	7	58%	44%
90	76	60	Wichita State	American Athletic	29	8	57%	56%
104	127	317	South Dakota State	The Summit League	30	8	74%	88%
127	128	133	Loyola-Chicago	Missouri Valley	31	8	59%	67%
223	182	263	Campbell	Big South	32	8	59%	75%

First four out: Southern Mississippi, Grand Canyon, Arizona, South Florida

1. I primary use the new "NCAA NET Rankings" for ordering.
2. Teams must have a winning record (T W % = Total Winning Percentage)
3. Teams must not be below 4 games of 50% in conference play (CW % = Conference Winning percentage).
4. I take a conservative approach to overall rankings (to provide a little cushion) as we are ahead of Providence and Tulsa).
5. This overall ranking will change as each day of games is played over the next 5 days thru Sunday.

[WSUwatcher]

Unless it were my actual job, which fortunately it isn't, I wouldn't do this for the NCAA, much less the NIT -- so kudos to you for your industriousness, Reaper (or boredom and/or idleness, but I'll look at it in the most favorable light). But I do think you may be going a little overboard in your conservatism when you not just primarily, but in fact entirely, use NET to establish your rankings, because we already know from experience that the NIT at-large field is not chosen strictly by NCAA metrics (i.e, RPI in the past, NET starting this year).

Just win the one you're supposed to win, Shocks, and maybe repay Temple the loss you owe them (although I agree with those who have said that beating Temple might paradoxically actually hurt WSU's NIT chances), and let the chips fall where they may. I think they're likely to fall in WSU's favor, and very possibly produce a home game that one might not expect by just looking at theoretical seeding. And if you can get past Temple and then win even more, so much the better.

[WuShock Reaper]

My Prediction for the Shocker's based on games thru yesterday (03/13/19):

moved the shockers from "Last Four In" to "First Four Out"

[FlyingWheat]

I was and still am of the opinion that the AAC railroaded our chances of establishing a better conference record by stacking the early schedule against us out of the gate. I get it...but it was obviously intentional.

Had it been reversed and had less upper half teams early in the season...our new squad would've had some time to develope, work out the kinks and gain some confidence for the latter (tougher) part of the conference schedule. Who knows...maybe we would have been a little more seasoned by that time and could've grabbed a couple/few additional wins.

Having said that...it was what it was and should be considered a positive valuable measure of MTXE moving forward to TOMORROW!!!!

GO SHOCKS!!!!!

Alternate theory, having the difficult games early provided us the challenge from through which we emerged.

At the very least, the season would feel much more depressing if we started 9-2 only to end 1-6.

[Wooglin]

I was and still am of the opinion that the AAC railroaded our chances of establishing a better conference record by stacking the early schedule against us out of the gate. I get it...but it was obviously intentional.

Had it been reversed and had less upper half teams early in the season...our new squad would've had some time to develope, work out the kinks and gain some confidence for the latter (tougher) part of the conference schedule. Who knows...maybe we would have been a little more seasoned by that time and could've grabbed a couple/few additional wins.

Having said that...it was what it was and should be considered a positive valuable measure of MTXE moving forward to TOMORROW!!!!

GO SHOCKS!!!!!

Was Shamet or Reaves on the team when schedules were announced? If either were on the roster at the time, and if roster and subsequent scheduling was influenced, I bet the AAC thought they were going to have some early killer conference matchups.

[shockerfanmas]

Just way too many upsets in the conference tournaments. I feel like the Shox are going to have to win a minimum of 2 games, maybe even 3 in Memphis, to have an NIT shot at this point. If not, I guess our youngsters can get some valuable experience in the CBI. I'm of the mindset that any postseason minutes are good for the youngsters, even if the CBI does usually have a completely crap field.

[WuDrWu]

Belmont
Lipscomb
Hofstra
Loyola
Campbell
Fairleigh Dickinson
Wright State
South Dakota State

No additions today but a real scare in the C-USA as #1 ODU beat #9 La Tech after trailing 38-27 with 16+ to go, 48-43 under 5, and 56-49 with 1:36 remaining. In addition to a lot of scoring, they needed DeQuan Bracey missing 2 free throws and a 3 at the buzzer after making their own 3 with 4 seconds left for the deciding 1 point margin. #Whew

[WuShock Reaper]

NET ranking improved by three spots to 87 after the beat down of ECU. After our win tonight, against Temple, we will be safely in the NIT tournament.

Go Shockers!!!

[12eagle]

Just way too many upsets in the conference tournaments. I feel like the Shox are going to have to win a minimum of 2 games, maybe even 3 in Memphis, to have an NIT shot at this point. If not, I guess our youngsters can get some valuable experience in the CBI. I'm of the mindset that any postseason minutes are good for the youngsters, even if the CBI does usually have a completely crap field.

Have you seen the CBI fields the last couple years, Its a hard pass on a CBI invite for me.

[shockerfanmas]

But it's not up to you or me. It's up to the team. From what I'm hearing, if a postseason offer comes their way, they are ready to accept a CBI bid. especially if it means getting another home game. Hopefully it doesn't come to that, but I'm thinking it probably will

[fansince80s]

Last years CBI teams

Campbell Fighting Camels
Canisius Golden Griffins
Central Arkansas Bears
Colgate Raiders
Eastern Washington Eagles
Grand Canyon Antelopes
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Mercer Bears
Miami-Ohio RedHawks
New Orleans Privateers
North Texas Mean Green
San Francisco Dons
Seattle Redhawks
South Dakota Coyotes
Utah Valley Wolverines
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros

[12eagle]

We wouldn't play a home and home with a single one of those teams so we have no business being in a tournament with them.

[SHOCKvalue]

That list makes the MVC look like the NBA.

[Topshock]

Last years CBI teams

Campbell Fighting Camels
Canisius Golden Griffins
Central Arkansas Bears
Colgate Raiders
Eastern Washington Eagles
Grand Canyon Antelopes
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Mercer Bears
Miami-Ohio RedHawks
New Orleans Privateers
North Texas Mean Green
San Francisco Dons
Seattle Redhawks
South Dakota Coyotes
Utah Valley Wolverines
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros

WSU should not associate with a tournament of lower level teams such as these.

Perception is important.

If you want to run with the big dogs then you can't piss with the pups.

If you want to be considered a Major then you can't play in Mid-major tournaments.

[SHOCKvalue]

Half those schools aren’t even mid-major, they’re low major. Not a dig, but factual.

[Lawrence Shocker]

How the game goes tonight is obviously important, but the most important factor for an NIT bid is out of our hands.

The 10 one-bid leagues yet to finish their tournaments:

Conference: 1 seed/Regular Season Conference Champ
SWAC: Prairie View A&M
MEAC: Norfolk State
Southland: Sam Houston State
Big Sky: Montana
Sun Belt: Georgia State
Ivy: Harvard
CUSA: Old Dominion
America East: Vermont
Big West: UC Irvine
WAC: New Mexico State

Every loss by one of these teams guarantees one less NIT at-large bid available. No upsets please!