Conference Shake Up 2.0

[ShockTalk]

I follow. I thought you were saying they'd be better off in the A10 as is than joining with the C7. But you're looking a little farther ahead than that.

How do you subtract Fordham and URI though? UMass will end up with the other BE schools eventually. That A10 you propose could end up very strong. But rather than waiting for some of those things to happen, Xavier can just jump to a 10 team C7 that would get 4 or 5 bids most years and only split that 10 ways. If they go to 12, you're looking at potential for 5 or 6 bids with the teams they're talking about. And it sounds like Xavier and Butler have already unofficially said they're in when the C7 is ready to move. Team 10 is the question at this point. Some believe Dayton because of Xavier, but others think that's what'll keep them out. SLU gives them a market and a decent school. CU gives them a good school. And VCU is still being tossed around as a public. I think they'll go to 12 eventually, not sure if they do that right away though.

I think best case scenario for the MVC would be for the C7 to go to 10 and stay with the 10th team being VCU. If that happened, there could be an outside chance of convincing Dayton and SLU to join us. If they go to 12, those two could be off the board and it's possible we still have CU if the C7 doesn't want to go that far West. In which case, the MVC gets lucky. I still think that regardless of what happens, the MVC needs to be looking at expansion candidates to move to 12. But they have to do a lot of research and reach out to schools that could invest and compete at the top of the conference. I've listed a number of teams in the past to look at, but I'm not good at finding info on their athletic budgets or in figuring out how much potential there is for more from each university. Adding just to add is dumb.

I still hope we get out somehow.

Like I said, my league option is no more than a pipe dream.

My problem with the C7 is that no more than 1 of Villanova, Providence, Seton Hall, St Johns, and DePaul will normally get in. The stronger and more additions to the C7, the more likely that only 1 of those schools might Dance. It wouldn't surprise me if only 1 of the C7 schools Dance this year. The Big Least is not a strong league because of these 7, it's strong because of Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, UConn, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame. What most of the C7 schools bring to the Big Least table is a quality second division, few RPI killers.

If the C7 goes to 12 teams, I'd guess that it will not be unusual that 4 of the top 6 teams come from the additions, not the original C7. Yet, those C7 schools will have a block that will control the new conference. If the new teams don't dominate the original 7, they'll be sitting at home come Dance time wishing they were on top of their league, getting a Dance ticket, and not being the quality also-rans of the new league.

[DoubleJayAlum]

My problem with the C7 is that no more than 1 of Villanova, Providence, Seton Hall, St Johns, and DePaul will normally get in.

While the last two seasons Villanova is certainly down a bit, they are still one of the traditional powers in college basketball and just a few years shy of a final four. I understand and could even agree with the remainder of the list, but I would be hesitant to include Villanova.

Frankly, the problem with the a10 is the same as the problem with the MVC - too many bottom dwellers that aren't willing to invest in their programs and only live off the others. (On top of that, at 14 members, money in the A10 is shared among 4 more schools than MVC money.) As down as some of the BE 7 are, they are still light years away from being a Fordham or this year's version of Missouri St.

As to your overall discussion, you are omitting a very important factor. The name recognition of the BE 7 will allow the new league to garner a substantially better TV deal than the A10 can get. There are estimates of $2-3M PER TEAM as compared with the 300K the MVC distributes or the 400K the A10 distributes.

[ShockTalk]

While the last two seasons Villanova is certainly down a bit, they are still one of the traditional powers in college basketball and just a few years shy of a final four. I understand and could even agree with the remainder of the list, but I would be hesitant to include Villanova.

Frankly, the problem with the a10 is the same as the problem with the MVC - too many bottom dwellers that aren't willing to invest in their programs and only live off the others. (On top of that, at 14 members, money in the A10 is shared among 4 more schools than MVC money.) As down as some of the BE 7 are, they are still light years away from being a Fordham or this year's version of Missouri St.

As to your overall discussion, you are omitting a very important factor. The name recognition of the BE 7 will allow the new league to garner a substantially better TV deal than the A10 can get. There are estimates of $2-3M PER TEAM as compared with the 300K the MVC distributes or the 400K the A10 distributes.

All valid points, most of which, I also made.

My saying that, normally, no more than 1 gets in is more correct than saying 2 of those 5 get in. There's years (this year for example) where none get in. I also intentionally put Villanova at the front of that grouping.

Point 2, I repeated that I was never comparing the Atl-10 as a whole to the C7. However, there is a difference between the Atl-10 and the MVC. The Atl-10 could probably require a minimum budget for schools to spend on basketball or out the door and get it passed. Don't know their bylaws. Such an event in the Valley would never happen. UNI, SIU, IN St, and Ill St are strapped with football. MSU is just plain broke and Evansville and Drake would never go for it.

Lastly, I said in two different posts here that "I agree regarding the TV money (which talks volumes)" and "Yes, I understand the TV markets that most are in, but if they don't perform, they may not be as valuable." A "New Atl-10", trimmed down and with added power teams would boost that per team average. I also believe a higher %, or at least equal %, of teams in such a league would Dance vs the C7. So NCAA money for each team would be the same.

I'll add another point. If the Atl-10 was to do what I said, where would the other "basketball only" schools come from? Would they take lesser schools, lower their profile? What I'm saying is that there are 10 to 11 teams in the Alt-10 just as good overall as the C7. Add a CU, WSU, George Mason, or maybe even pull in Gonzaga, they would be better than any "basketball first" league the C7 could come up with with the bonus of the Alt-10 teams not have to be controlled by the whims of the C7 block.

[RoyalShock]

I posted this article a few weeks back and I'm surprised it hasn't become a bigger discussion point. The money behind all this realignment is based on the current business model for cable distribution. And it's a model that doesn't really make much sense, since it's not based on actual viewers, but merely households who receive the channel.

At some point these cable companies are going to succeed in restructuring how they contract with content providers and offer programming. What then happens when the sports channels are only going into half the current households because Cox, for example, got tired of dealing with ESPN's strong-armed tactics and high prices, and upstart sports channels take advantage by offering their programming at a lower cost to get into Cox's basic package? Or all sports programming gets delivered in an upgrade package?

It just sounds foolish and risky to me to invest the future of a conference and it's member school's athletic department funding in a business model they aren't in direct control of. But I guess since they are all about the money anyway, as long as they can cash in for a few years they probably don't care.

[GoShockers89]

Boise State just announced its "return" to the MWC.

[ShockTalk]

Boise State just announced its "return" to the MWC.

That should start the exodus of the "future newbies" from the Big East.

[SubGod22]

The MWC has just solidified itself. If they get SDSU to return as well, they'll be in good shape in football and basketball. Would be great if they'd consider a nonfootball member as that'll be a hell of a conference.

[tropicalshox]

The MWC has five teams in serious consideration for an at large bid. Realistically the MVC has two.

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

You see that green line. Its not Fidelity investments. Our future depends on following that line.

[ShockTalk]

The MWC has just solidified itself. If they get SDSU to return as well, they'll be in good shape in football and basketball. Would be great if they'd consider a nonfootball member as that'll be a hell of a conference.

I believe SDSU wants to come back to the MWC and has NO exit fee. However, the MWC is "weighing" its options for further expansion with other possible teams and hasn't said yes to them as yet.

[SubGod22]

That's odd as I've heard the MWC would take them in as long as SDSU asks. Word I've heard is that the MWC won't ask them back but won't hold them out. From a basketball standpoint, not taking SDSU back would be dumb as hell.

[ShockTalk]

That's odd as I've heard the MWC would take them in as long as SDSU asks. Word I've heard is that the MWC won't ask them back but won't hold them out. From a basketball standpoint, not taking SDSU back would be dumb as hell.

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/8796807/boise-state-broncos-staying-mountain-west-conference-all

From the above article: "A Mountain West conference source with knowledge of the situation said San Diego State wants back in the Mountain West, but the league is holding up the process as it decides whether there is a better fit than the Aztecs and if there is a school that can deliver more value.
The source said if SDSU returns to the Mountain West, the Aztecs would have to come back on the conference's terms.

...sources told ESPN that Houston and SMU, scheduled to join the Big East next season, are among four possible teams the Mountain West may target, along with Tulsa and UTEP. The Mountain West will look to add a 12th member by 2014, sources said."

[tropicalshox]

Tulsa, UTEP and then Wichita State as the non-football member would be just great.

edit- drop the just.

[ripemupshocks]

Big East might as well throw in the the towel. It's over. They're now down to only a few good basketball programs, and relegated to competing with CUSA as the worst FBS conference. I can't believe UConn or Cincinnati will hang around much longer. And I'll bet Memphis and Temple are thinking; Well SHAT. What the hell did we do to ourselves? What started as a great basketball conference has been destroyed by BCS football. Heck, maybe the C-7 don't need to worry about a new conference name. Just wait a few seasons for all the wannabes to fall by the way side, and restart the Big East just like it's 1979 all over again.

[rrshock]

This makes it very interesting. I hope WSU can fill that non-football void out west. The MWC is going to be a major player in a few years.