American Athletic Conference

[Shockerman]

Fact: A final four run this year gets us out of the MVC and will change the face of the University forever. I am a big Baseball guy so the AAC is the dream conference for me.

Fact: A win vs KU today and a deep tourney run next year does the same as above.

Fact: My facts are opinion but using Butler as the model as the only "mid major" to return to the final four gives me hope.

[Shock Top]

Gregg might be receiving phone calls alright, but maybe they'll be to try and get him to join their conference!

[Shockerman]

Gregg might be receiving phone calls alright, but maybe they'll be to try and get him to join their conference!

Lots of chatter out there (on fan boards) about Wichita State going to the AAC to balance out Navy football.

[SHOCKvalue]

I was bored, so I whipped up a spreadsheet laying out how WSU might fit into the AAC via various metrics. I'll spare everyone the minutia, and simmer it all down below:

(The assumption is that WSU makes the twelfth school in the totals below. AAC has 11 currently, plus Navy football.)


WSU Enrollment: 15,003 - 9th out of 12
Some big schools in the AAC, but many are just WSU on steroids (public commuter). WSU would be the smallest public. We're bigger than only Tulsa, SMU, and Tulane.


WSU Endowment: $259.7M - 9th out of 12
The bigger schools, and the private schools, push us down the list a bit. We do have a larger endowment than UCF, ECU, and Memphis.


Wichita TV Market (Wichita's Rank - Nielsen "TV Homes"): 65th - 441,760 - 12th out of 12
Dead last here, but actually not far behind Tulsa at 530,200 "TV Homes", and within reasonable distance of Memphis at 653,560 "TV Homes." Some pretty big cities in the AAC, although I'm not sure how closely those cities follow the sports of their ACC member.


WSU NCAA Tourney Total Appearances: 12 - 7th out of 12
Top third of the AAC has a lot of cred. Middle third is similar to us. Bottom third is like most of the MVC.


WSU NCAA Tourney Total Wins: 15 - 6th out of 12
Same as above. Top third of the AAC has a lot of cred. Middle third is similar to us. Bottom third is like most of the MVC.


WSU NCAA Tourney F4's: 2 - tied for 5th out of 12
Ranges from 6 to 0, with 5/12 schools having 0 F4's.


WSU NCAA Tourney E8's: 4 - 6th out of 12
Ranges from 11 to 0, with 4/12 schools having 0 E8's.


WSU NCAA Tourney S16's: 6 - 6th out of 12
Ranges from 16 to 0, with 4/12 schools having 0 S16's.


Koch Arena Capacity: 10,506 - 3rd or 4th out of 12, depending on how you handle UCONN's two site home arena arrangement
Only Memphis and UCONN's larger home arena are greatly larger than Koch. About half of the AAC has MVC sized arenas, surprisingly.


2013-2014 WSU Average Home Attendence (via NCAA): 10,732 - 2nd out of 12
SHOCKED at the weak attendance in the AAC. A lot of the schools would fit in quite well in the MVC in this regard. Also, as is already known by most, our attendance isn't an anomaly; our 10 year median attendance via NCAA figures sits at 10,410, or 99% capacity. When we sucked in the 90's Levitt Arena was still 3/4 full. AAC would assumedly be happy to have us from a butts-in-seats-on-TV context.


WSU Total Weeks Spent in AP Top 25: 128 - 5th out of 12
Kind of like the stats a few spots up. Top third of the AAC has a lot of cred. Middle third is similar to us. Bottom third pretty weak.


WSU Total Weeks Spent in AP Top 10: 128 - tied for 5th out of 12
Again... Top third of the AAC has a lot of cred. Middle third is similar to us. Bottom third pretty weak.


WSU MBB Revenues: $5.6M - 5th out of 12
Ranges from $9.5M to $2.8M.


WSU Total AD Revenues: $22.7M - 12 out of 12
Ranges from $71.2M to $24.1M. Both of those figures (high is UCONN, low is Cincy) are pretty decent outliers from the rest. The AAC median is $39.5, and considering these schools are spending anywhere from $10M to $25M on football, we conform quite well after adjustment.


In closing, the only AAC school that sort of sticks out like a sore thumb currently is UCONN. They are sort of WSU's equivalent in the AAC. Wouldn't be surprised at all if they find a better home, kind of like us hopefully. The rest of the conference trends together pretty well. Bottom third of the AAC would honestly fit in just fine in the MVC, speaking of basketball metrics. Not a very strong bottom third when it comes to AAC basketball.

[jdshock]

Wichita TV Market (Wichita's Rank - Nielsen "TV Homes"): 65th - 441,760 - 12th out of 12
Dead last here, but actually not far behind Tulsa at 530,200 "TV Homes", and within reasonable distance of Memphis at 653,560 "TV Homes." Some pretty big cities in the AAC, although I'm not sure how closely those cities follow the sports of their ACC member.

This is interesting to me. I'd love to read more about markets and college basketball in particular. 65 actually doesn't seem too bad. I wouldn't think this is a deal-breaker for any conference. I'd also be interested to know how that interacts with basketball ratings. Maybe New York is number one in tv homes (I don't know this, it might not be), but for college basketball it's not?

[Aargh]

The B12 is going to kick out KU and invite WSU. They figure that as long as they have to have a school that doesn't have a FB team, they may as well havea good basketball team in the league.

[Shock Top]

I think it's no secret the success of the basketball program has expedited the Campus Innovation projects.

WSU is positioning itself well for the future. Have to think they have factored athletics into this as well.

[im4wsu]

I think it's no secret the success of the basketball program has expedited the Campus Innovation projects.

WSU is positioning itself well for the future. Have to think they have factored athletics into this as well.

Isn't the Innovation project, if not Charles Koch's idea, at least he's a primary doer and shaker on it? He might feel it will progress faster with 3G at the helm of the basketball program.

[1979Shocker]

Maybe a retro-Missouri Valley Conference could be formed for basketball using teams that were a part of the MVC during the 1960's.

That would include Bradley, Cincinnati, Drake, Louisville, Memphis State (now Memphis), North Texas State (now North Texas), Saint Louis, Tulsa, and Wichita State.

That's 9 teams. We could pick up New Mexico State from the 1970's to get to 10 teams.

[DUShock]

Isn't the Innovation project, if not Charles Koch's idea, at least he's a primary doer and shaker on it? He might feel it will progress faster with 3G at the helm of the basketball program.

the concept originates overseas but was initially "brought" to the U.S. in the research triangle of North Carolina in the 1970's. I don't know if Koch Industries is involved but it would not surprise me to learn of this.

[RoyalShock]

Wichita TV Market (Wichita's Rank - Nielsen "TV Homes"): 65th - 441,760 - 12th out of 12
Dead last here, but actually not far behind Tulsa at 530,200 "TV Homes", and within reasonable distance of Memphis at 653,560 "TV Homes." Some pretty big cities in the AAC, although I'm not sure how closely those cities follow the sports of their ACC member.

Good stuff!

A couple of thoughts, first about TV markets.

A good friend of mine was working for a local ISP/phone/TV provider. He's convinced that cable/satellite TV as we know it will be gone in five years in favor of more customized streaming content. We're already seeing this so it's not far fetched. The problem is all these TV contracts that are based on the current cable/satellite model. (Fox is screwed with their Big East deal, IMO). Another issue I see is that once they can do a better job of determining who is watching what, basing viewership off of how many households have a particular channel is going to get exposed. Just because a channel is in a household doesn't mean anyone is watching it. So these AAC schools in larger markets where they aren't the big game in town isn't going to be looked at as a revenue producer when it comes to TV. That should eventually make WSU, with it's passionate and growing fanbase, relatively more attractive than it is right now. Just my opinion.

As for how we rank against other AAC members in terms of total NCAA success, I would be curious to see that broken down to just the last 10 years. I'm not sure any results before then is all that relevant.

At any rate, that's some good data you put together.

[LandStander]

Great points Royal, you're right about the size of the market being a bit misleading. If the MVC thinks they tapped into the Chicago market by adding Loyola, then they're in for a surprised. Chicago is a pro team town. Wichita, although a smaller market is a Shocker town and more valuable.
In terms of recent success, that's what matters most in this "what have you done lately" world.

[Shock Top]

Great points Royal, you're right about the size of the market being a bit misleading. If the MVC thinks they tapped into the Chicago market by adding Loyola, then they're in for a surprised. Chicago is a pro team town. Wichita, although a smaller market is a Shocker town and more valuable.
In terms of recent success, that's what matters most in this "what have you done lately" world.

Agreed. I would like to see numbers of actual eyeballs on the TV. I guarantee the ICT would be in the top % of market share in the conference.

[Shockerman]

I was bored, so I whipped up a spreadsheet laying out how WSU might fit into the AAC via various metrics. I'll spare everyone the minutia, and simmer it all down below:

(The assumption is that WSU makes the twelfth school in the totals below. AAC has 11 currently, plus Navy football.)


WSU Enrollment: 15,003 - 9th out of 12
Some big schools in the AAC, but many are just WSU on steroids (public commuter). WSU would be the smallest public. We're bigger than only Tulsa, SMU, and Tulane.


WSU Endowment: $259.7M - 9th out of 12
The bigger schools, and the private schools, push us down the list a bit. We do have a larger endowment than UCF, ECU, and Memphis.


Wichita TV Market (Wichita's Rank - Nielsen "TV Homes"): 65th - 441,760 - 12th out of 12
Dead last here, but actually not far behind Tulsa at 530,200 "TV Homes", and within reasonable distance of Memphis at 653,560 "TV Homes." Some pretty big cities in the AAC, although I'm not sure how closely those cities follow the sports of their ACC member.


WSU NCAA Tourney Total Appearances: 12 - 7th out of 12
Top third of the AAC has a lot of cred. Middle third is similar to us. Bottom third is like most of the MVC.


WSU NCAA Tourney Total Wins: 15 - 6th out of 12
Same as above. Top third of the AAC has a lot of cred. Middle third is similar to us. Bottom third is like most of the MVC.


WSU NCAA Tourney F4's: 2 - tied for 5th out of 12
Ranges from 6 to 0, with 5/12 schools having 0 F4's.


WSU NCAA Tourney E8's: 4 - 6th out of 12
Ranges from 11 to 0, with 4/12 schools having 0 E8's.


WSU NCAA Tourney S16's: 6 - 6th out of 12
Ranges from 16 to 0, with 4/12 schools having 0 S16's.


Koch Arena Capacity: 10,506 - 3rd or 4th out of 12, depending on how you handle UCONN's two site home arena arrangement
Only Memphis and UCONN's larger home arena are greatly larger than Koch. About half of the AAC has MVC sized arenas, surprisingly.


2013-2014 WSU Average Home Attendence (via NCAA): 10,732 - 2nd out of 12
SHOCKED at the weak attendance in the AAC. A lot of the schools would fit in quite well in the MVC in this regard. Also, as is already known by most, our attendance isn't an anomaly; our 10 year median attendance via NCAA figures sits at 10,410, or 99% capacity. When we sucked in the 90's Levitt Arena was still 3/4 full. AAC would assumedly be happy to have us from a butts-in-seats-on-TV context.


WSU Total Weeks Spent in AP Top 25: 128 - 5th out of 12
Kind of like the stats a few spots up. Top third of the AAC has a lot of cred. Middle third is similar to us. Bottom third pretty weak.


WSU Total Weeks Spent in AP Top 10: 128 - tied for 5th out of 12
Again... Top third of the AAC has a lot of cred. Middle third is similar to us. Bottom third pretty weak.


WSU MBB Revenues: $5.6M - 5th out of 12
Ranges from $9.5M to $2.8M.


WSU Total AD Revenues: $22.7M - 12 out of 12
Ranges from $71.2M to $24.1M. Both of those figures (high is UCONN, low is Cincy) are pretty decent outliers from the rest. The AAC median is $39.5, and considering these schools are spending anywhere from $10M to $25M on football, we conform quite well after adjustment.


In closing, the only AAC school that sort of sticks out like a sore thumb currently is UCONN. They are sort of WSU's equivalent in the AAC. Wouldn't be surprised at all if they find a better home, kind of like us hopefully. The rest of the conference trends together pretty well. Bottom third of the AAC would honestly fit in just fine in the MVC, speaking of basketball metrics. Not a very strong bottom third when it comes to AAC basketball.

Excellent work! If you get bored again, will you break down how we stack up in terms of sports sponsored by each school and what they are? In regards to Enrollment, we are well on our way with Bardo at addressing this as Innovation Campus continues to grow as does on campus housing. Endowment is certainly a concern though as the higher that number is I would "assume" the less risk there is with an institution having financial difficulties as a whole. Outside of UCONN, I don't see any of these schools going anywhere anytime soon. In addition, creating a Midwest core with Tulsa, Houston, Memphis, Cinci, Tulane, SMU, and hopefully someday Rice sounds very appealing to me moving forward as those schools have more or less stuck together since the break up of the SWC.

[Shocker-maniac]

According to Frank the Tank who has a pretty good track record, WSU is not a likely realignment target due to "off the court issues." He says MVC expansion is likely by adding UAB and probably Valpo or UIC:

http://frankthetank.me/2015/03/25/uptown-dunk-basketball-conference-realignment-and-the-big-east-wichita-state-uab-mvc-and-down-the-line/