Trump

[shocka khan]

I'm looking forward to seeing the Trump vs. Clinton debates that are coming up. HRC seems to think she was anointed this election cycle. She has also had a rather nasty habit of alienating democrats (like the coal miners in West Virginia, for instance) and males (such as her saying that there was a sentence disparity between men and women for the same crimes and she was going to make it fairer for women (i.e. less jail time)).

I have heard the rumor that when she's elected, she will invite every male democrat over to the White House for a public castration. After that, their balls will be bronzed, mounted on a suitable wooden mounting where they will make a nice knick knack.

As for me, I will love watching Trump getting under her skin. I'm betting she will go off and say things that are inappropriate, as she had a lot of trouble controlling herself when debating Sanders, who will look like a kind, polite gentleman next to Trump.

And don't forget servergate, either. Trump hasn't and I'm betting he won't be discussing Benghazi, but he will be hammering her about that rouge server. Day in and day out.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Either way, he (Trump) will beat the record. In a contest with three candidates.

The actual voting has been no more divided this year than most years. 17 candidates on TV seemed crazy, but most of them received a negligible number of actual votes. For example, Carly Fiorina had memorable moments on TV in the debates, but she has only 0.14% of all primary votes to date. Out of 25 million votes, her 37k is basically nothing.

Here's a quick rundown of the top 5 finishers by % of votes received each of the last 3 cycles:

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
2016	39.7%	27.1%	14.4%	13.7%	2.8%
2012	52.1%	20.4%	14.2%	10.9%	0.4%
2008	47.3%	21.7%	20.1%	5.6%	1.3%

2016 looks much like the others, other than 1st place being sub 40%, while the immediate challengers have been a bit stronger than normal. Still, this has not been a 17, 10, or even 6 man race. The top 4 (Trump, Cruz, Kasich, Rubio) have combined for 94.8% of all the votes. Nothing unusual.

The difference has not been in %s, but in turnout. It should be noted that there is very little correlation between primary turnout and general turnout. Is Trump going to set a record for most total votes? Probably so, but that is because of a crazy spike in turnout. Both Trump and Cruz have been extremely polarizing, bringing many more people to the primaries that normally just wait for the general and then vote for the Republican. I am one of those voters. I have rarely cared enough about the primary to take the time to leave my house and vote. In 2012, I didn't bother to go to the primary. I had my minor preferences, but I simply waited, and once Romney became the nominee, I supported him and voted for him in November. This year, I cared enough to make it a priority to vote in the primary. I will once again vote in November like I always do, although interestingly, I will not be voting for the Republican nominee.

Trump may get a record number of votes in this year's primary, but he is going to have a smaller percentage of the total primary vote than Romney and McCain did. There was never nearly as big of a #NeverMcCain or #NeverRomney effort as there is a #NeverTrump effort this year, so he will have a much harder time winning over all the supporters of the 2nd through 4th place finishers than Romney and McCain did.

You can argue that Trump will magically win over independents and liberals, or that Hillary will self-destruct in the next 6 months. However, if focusing purely on republican primary results, Trump is clearly in worse shape than McCain and Romney. Most Gingrich supporters ultimately voted for Romney. A much smaller % of Cruz/Rubio supporters are going to vote for Trump. He's in real trouble.

[SHOCKvalue]

[Kung Wu]

The actual voting has been no more divided this year than most years. 17 candidates on TV seemed crazy, but most of them received a negligible number of actual votes. For example, Carly Fiorina had memorable moments on TV in the debates, but she has only 0.14% of all primary votes to date. Out of 25 million votes, her 37k is basically nothing.

Here's a quick rundown of the top 5 finishers by % of votes received each of the last 3 cycles:

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
2016	39.7%	27.1%	14.4%	13.7%	2.8%
2012	52.1%	20.4%	14.2%	10.9%	0.4%
2008	47.3%	21.7%	20.1%	5.6%	1.3%

2016 looks much like the others, other than 1st place being sub 40%, while the immediate challengers have been a bit stronger than normal. Still, this has not been a 17, 10, or even 6 man race. The top 4 (Trump, Cruz, Kasich, Rubio) have combined for 94.8% of all the votes. Nothing unusual.

Why did you quote me and then underline what I said about it being a three candidate race, and then go into a long thesis, concluding it wasn't even a "6 man race"?

[Kung Wu]

Hilarious! My 7 year old got a kick out of it too!

[Kung Wu]

The Democrat Party	=	2016 North Carolina Basketball
The Republican Establishment	=	2005 Kansas City Royals
Donald Trump	=	Former NE Patriot Aaron Hernandez

Those of you who think frustration at the ineptitude and corruption of the republican establishment is justification to cheer for Donald Trump are out of your mind. Replacing *bad* with *worse* is not an improvement. Trump is one of the most incredibly dishonest, immoral, self-serving scumbags to ever run for national office. I wouldn't even think of supporting him unless it was 1944 Hitler on the other side. 1934 Hitler? Hmm, that would be a tough call.

Shame on all of you for the utter void of character that shows through your support of that man. Am I angry? You bet. Watching utter contempt for basic human decency gets me that way.

If that horse you're riding on gets any higher you're gonna have to register it with the FAA.

[Kung Wu]

It's alarming, not funny.

May the 4th be with you.

[Kung Wu]

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
2016	39.7%	27.1%	14.4%	13.7%	2.8%
2012	52.1%	20.4%	14.2%	10.9%	0.4%
2008	47.3%	21.7%	20.1%	5.6%	1.3%

Why are you comparing the final 2012 tallies to the partial 2016 tallies? There's still 9 more states to go.

Santorum dropped out with 19 states left. After that, nearly all votes went to Romney causing a massive increase in popular vote win %.

Kasich and Cruz did not drop out even when they were mathematically eliminated. So Trump will be finishing alone with only 9 states left.

California alone could make your entire premise look flawed. Deeply flawed.

I have a feeling your sub-40 commentary is going to be an embarrassing blemish on your statistics argument record in a few weeks. But what do I know?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Why did you quote me and then underline what I said about it being a three candidate race, and then go into a long thesis, concluding it wasn't even a "6 man race"?

Sorry if I was unclear and/or misunderstood your comment. You have been harping on how Trump is dominating. I took it that the reason you mentioned it was a 3 way race was to effectively say "Trump is setting the vote record despite extra obstacles (more competition)". I was trying to point out that the super large field at the debates might have mislead some to believe that voting was more divided this year than in the past. I wanted to show that the breakdown of votes has been similar to other years, especially in terms of the number of candidates reaching significant vote totals.

Yes, you did say 3 way race, not 6. May I ask what you were implying by adding that tidbit of info?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

If that horse you're riding on gets any higher you're gonna have to register it with the FAA.

I will ride my high horse 24/7 if the topic is condemning a man who brags about all the married women he's slept with and all the blackmail he has and will again attempt. #NeverTrump

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Why are you comparing the final 2012 tallies to the partial 2016 tallies? There's still 9 more states to go.

Santorum dropped out with 19 states left. After that, nearly all votes went to Romney causing a massive increase in popular vote win %.

Kasich and Cruz did not drop out even when they were mathematically eliminated. So Trump will be finishing alone with only 9 states left.

California alone could make your entire premise look flawed. Deeply flawed.

I have a feeling your sub-40 commentary is going to be an embarrassing blemish on your statistics argument record in a few weeks. But what do I know?

The 9 remaining states had 3 million combined votes in the 2012 primary. Trump will indeed rise from 39.7% of the total, but there is no way he catches McCain, and he will be even further behind Romney. My point still stands. Trump will have a smaller percentage of support than either of the last 2 losing nominees, while simultaneously having the largest percentage of registered republicans who will refuse to vote for him as the nominee that the party has seen in my lifetime. He is going to do horribly with registered Republicans in the general election. He's in trouble.

[Awesome Sauce Malone]

I wonder how many Trump supporters are out celebrating Cinco De Mayo today. Considering the idiocracy of the group.

[ShockdaWorld]

I understand the Trump hatred. Most of the reasons for it I can even agree with. My question for those who hate Trump with a passion is, is this going to be a write in vote kind of year if Hillary gets the Dem nod, or will you be voting for someone that should be behind bars, hoping that she can pardon herself?

[Play Angry]

I understand the Trump hatred. Most of the reasons for it I can even agree with. My question for those who hate Trump with a passion is, is this going to be a write in vote kind of year if Hillary gets the Dem nod, or will you be voting for someone that should be behind bars, hoping that she can pardon herself?

I'll vote third party or, if none of those options on the ballot in my state resonate, then I'll just sit this one out.

Hillary sucks, but I'm not going to vote for a fear mongering race baiter who is a little to the left of 1970s auto union bosses on trade/tariffs/currency matters just because he "isn't Hillary."

[Dave Stalwart]

Question: If Trump gets elected president, will he put his signature huuuge "TRUMP" letters on the front of the White House, too?