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Didn't really feel like starting a new thread, but the 2020 Census is now out. 331+million.
Losing seats in the House, California, New York, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
Gaining seats are Texas X2, Montana, Florida, North Carolina, Oregon and Colorado. Once each state gets done redistricting we'll have a better idea, but it's hard to see this is a good thing for the left.
For 2022, as it stands right now, it's 218-212 with 5 special elections upcoming.
LA 2 has been decided, heavily Dem anyway and will remain that way for my lifetime.
FL 20 hasn't even been contested by a GOP for half of the elections since 2000. Will stay Dem.
New Mexico 1 is a strong Dem but in 2020 the GOP candidate (Michelle Garcia Holmes) received more votes that any other GOP candidate in 20 years. It was a huge turnout. Probably stays Dem.
Texas 6 is a pretty strong GOP but not impossible to see a switch. Still, probable GOP.
Ohio 11 is 55% black. DEM
Ohio 15 will be vacant soon but will stay GOP but it's not vacant today.
So likely the makeup will be 222 to 213.
The district changes will likely mean, at a minimum, 2 seats lost for the Dems and therefore 2 gained for the GOP. I don't see, given who controls the states in question, how it could be less.
And it could be as much as 5 or 6.
Let's say it's 3. Stilll 219 to 216. But it's REALLY close.
Losing seats in the House, California, New York, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
Gaining seats are Texas X2, Montana, Florida, North Carolina, Oregon and Colorado. Once each state gets done redistricting we'll have a better idea, but it's hard to see this is a good thing for the left.
For 2022, as it stands right now, it's 218-212 with 5 special elections upcoming.
LA 2 has been decided, heavily Dem anyway and will remain that way for my lifetime.
FL 20 hasn't even been contested by a GOP for half of the elections since 2000. Will stay Dem.
New Mexico 1 is a strong Dem but in 2020 the GOP candidate (Michelle Garcia Holmes) received more votes that any other GOP candidate in 20 years. It was a huge turnout. Probably stays Dem.
Texas 6 is a pretty strong GOP but not impossible to see a switch. Still, probable GOP.
Ohio 11 is 55% black. DEM
Ohio 15 will be vacant soon but will stay GOP but it's not vacant today.
So likely the makeup will be 222 to 213.
The district changes will likely mean, at a minimum, 2 seats lost for the Dems and therefore 2 gained for the GOP. I don't see, given who controls the states in question, how it could be less.
And it could be as much as 5 or 6.
Let's say it's 3. Stilll 219 to 216. But it's REALLY close.
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