Originally posted by jdmee
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The reality is, Trump won because he was underestimated by everyone AND he got a significant portion of the Blue Dog Democrats in the rust belt states. Additional complacency occurred due to the recent ending of the "Black JFK" era. The Dims were fat and sassy and full of confidence. 'Bum rammed through the precursor to nationalized healthcare and the "have nots" were already firmly attached to the new government teet. They started counting their chickens.
Many Democrats that voted for Trump did so because they believed he was really a NY Dim in disguise. They had no idea he was going to govern as radically Conservative as he has. Those people won't be back. There's another faction (mostly women) who believed him when he said, "I can be very presidential". To say that group is disillusioned at this point would be an understatement. There's also the legion of first time voters who came out because Donald had some celebrity status. They were first time voters for a reason. I suspect their foray into political participation will be short lived. I could go on and on.
Hardcore Liberals will never vote for a Republican and hardcore Conservatives will never vote for a Democrat. That won't change this election cycle. What elects presidents in this day and age is voter enthusiasm and who grabs the lion's share of Independents/Moderates. This group will be most swayed by important issues like the economy or the pandemic. I think it's safe to say that the majority of Americans agree that Donald **** the bed on the pandemic. The sad thing is, most of the damage done was due to his personality. America was always going to lose a lot of lives due to our FU culture and the freedoms we hold dear, but he made several public miscues that easily paint him as not helpful to the cause at best, and contributory to excess deaths at worst. That will be on the television 24/7 from here on out. Election Day will come right as we enter the winter illness season. The Dims have the advantage at this point. Trump will need an early vaccine release (with no safety issues) to even have a chance.
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