2024 - Severe Storms (T-Storms and Blizzards)

[SB Shock]

Risk now at Day 6 out

Day 7.jpg

from the Wichita NWS

Our attention continues to be drawn toward another potent midlevel
trough poised to eject into the Plains early next week. Latest
deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to suggest this trough
axis will eject across the forecast area Monday afternoon/night.
Ahead of its passage, an environment capable of severe storms,
possibly significant, may emerge Monday evening into Monday
night. Stay tuned for forecast updates over the coming days.

[SB Shock]

GFS model has been bumping this storm east little by little. The moisture return looks like it going to be more difficult and the dry line is setting up close to Wichita.

[Kung Wu]

GFS model has been bumping this storm east little by little. The moisture return looks like it going to be more difficult and the dry line is setting up close to Wichita.

Is a "dry line" exactly that? A line where no rain is expected on one side of it, but rain on the other?

[ShockBand]

Is a "dry line" exactly that? A line where no rain is expected on one side of it, but rain on the other?

IIRC, it is the line between the moist and dry air masses. Storms tend to fire up on the dry line.

So the NWS post speaks of "showing signs of ingredients" for severe weather Monday. So it's a:

image.png

[SB Shock]

IIRC, it is the line between the moist and dry air masses. Storms tend to fire up on the dry line.

So the NWS post speaks of "showing signs of ingredients" for severe weather Monday. So it's a:

image.png

To bad there is no more "Torchy's"

[ShockerFever]

GFS model has been bumping this storm east little by little. The moisture return looks like it going to be more difficult and the dry line is setting up close to Wichita.

Definitely not gonna be east of us. If anything, it’ll set up west of the area. Models trending slower as a big deepening system always pumps the breaks and slows its ass down. It may just be a Monday light linear event by the time it reaches Wichita.

[Kung Wu]

Linear! *whew*! Looking at the topomaps I had real concern the deltasphere was going to reflectoid and produce a bang bang triangular system. I'll rest luke warmly tonight.

[SubGod22]

Linear! *whew*! Looking at the topomaps I had real concern the deltasphere was going to reflectoid and produce a bang bang triangular system. I'll rest luke warmly tonight.

[pinstripers]

prolly east of the turnpike

[ShockBand]

prolly east of the turnpike

image.png

[Kung Wu]

You have to be a bit of an expert in weather to get it. Just hang out in this forum and you'll become an expert like I did.

[ShockerFever]

prolly east of the turnpike

Prolly not

[Cdizzle]

Explain it to me like I'm 5.

Or just tell me if I need to clean out the garage this weekend so I can get the vehicles in.

[pinstripers]

Explain it to me like I'm 5.

Or just tell me if I need to clean out the garage this weekend so I can get the vehicles in.

are you east of the turnpike?

[Kung Wu]

Explain it to me like I'm 5.

Or just tell me if I need to clean out the garage this weekend so I can get the vehicles in.

5 you say?

Well the terasphere is reflecting optical doppler refractions at least 5 minutes and 30 seconds west of 43rd latitude. Take that with a grain of salt however, because prevailing winds can put my calcs off by an avacado.