Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[Kung Wu]

I think you are making an early presumption. It could be the case, but get back to me in three days.

Yes, very, very early presumption. But I think it might pan out.

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

Kung, I hope you are correct about the number of cases in Italy peaking......

To add context to the numbers in Italy, they have 6X FEWER people than the U.S. If we get close to their death tolls, that would mean 30,000+ would die here.

I found this website:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

which seems to indicate the rate of increase is starting to flatten:

5560 new cases and 651 new deaths in Italy: 15% decline in new cases and 18% decline in new deaths with respect to yesterday [source] [source]

• Among the deaths: a 34-year-old man in Rome with no existing health conditions (according to reports) who died after being hospitalized for 4 days in sub‐intensive care. He had developed a fever after returning from Barcelona, Spain [source]
• "We expect to see the first effects of the stringent lockdown measures adopted on March 11 after 2-3 weeks, so the coming week will be absolutely crucial in this sense: we expect to finally see a sign of trend reversal," said Franco Locatelli, President of the Health Council [source]

[CBB_Fan]

Note that is isn't even just Italy that is being hammered. It is highly regionalized, with something like 70% of deaths coming from Lombardy, a region with 1/6 of Italy's population.

That suggests that there may be a genetic risk factor involved or some sort of regional difference in demographics and how they dealt with the crisis. It may suggest that the virus will barely touch some communities in the US while completely overwhelming others.

On another note, Rand Paul is the first Senator to test positive. Given the travel and diplomatic efforts common among congressmen, it may be no surprise when we see significantly higher percentages fall I'll compared to the national average. Paul was asymptomatic and it is possible that every other Senator had a chance to contract it from for being diagnosed.

I believe it would be wise for the President and essential white house staff to move to a bunker, as they have already come into contact with many infected and it would spark a panic if Trump or Pence had a severe or critical case.

[Kung Wu]

To add context to the numbers in Italy, they have 6X FEWER people than the U.S. If we get close to their death tolls, that would mean 30,000+ would die here.

We will have far, far less total deaths than Italy. They won't even be comparable when this is over.

[wufan]

Note that is isn't even just Italy that is being hammered. It is highly regionalized, with something like 70% of deaths coming from Lombardy, a region with 1/6 of Italy's population.

That suggests that there may be a genetic risk factor involved or some sort of regional difference in demographics and how they dealt with the crisis. It may suggest that the virus will barely touch some communities in the US while completely overwhelming others.

On another note, Rand Paul is the first Senator to test positive. Given the travel and diplomatic efforts common among congressmen, it may be no surprise when we see significantly higher percentages fall I'll compared to the national average. Paul was asymptomatic and it is possible that every other Senator had a chance to contract it from for being diagnosed.

I believe it would be wise for the President and essential white house staff to move to a bunker, as they have already come into contact with many infected and it would spark a panic if Trump or Pence had a severe or critical case.

It would also cause a panic if they went into a bunker.

[1979Shocker]

Rand Paul becomes first senator to contract coronavirus, is in quarantine

[wufan]

We will have far, far less total deaths than Italy. They won't even be comparable when this is over.

Spain starting to look like Italy now.

[wufan]

As noted above, this may disproportionally impact the poor. While we are looking at epicenters in NYC and other coastal metros, Louisiana looks to be on the uptick. If recent history has anything to say about this, they will be ill-equipped to handle the outbreak.

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

We will have far, far less total deaths than Italy. They won't even be comparable when this is over.

So what's your rationale on that? Cuomo is saying 40-60% of the 16 million residents of NY will get this virus. That would be somewhere around 6 million (if you take the lower numbers). If you assume a 1% death rate (which would seem to be a little low), that alone would result in about 60,000 deaths.

Our medical system has less capacity and fewer beds. If NY gets their medical facilities overwhelmed, there could be many more casualties. **Probably** the only thing that is different between us and Italy is that we may be a little younger.

We did not take this seriously initially (like Italy) we are in a similar state as they are. Only question is if you look at the projection, whether the numbers Cuomo's throwing out take into account the undertesting that probably occurred in Italy due to a lack of tests.

[wsushox1]

As noted above, this may disproportionally impact the poor. While we are looking at epicenters in NYC and other coastal metros, Louisiana looks to be on the uptick. If recent history has anything to say about this, they will be ill-equipped to handle the outbreak.

Read an article about people in Louisiana that believed it was a "hoax" and "just the flu" (wonder where that rhetoric came from) until people in their inner circle started dropping and were intubated.

As was painfully obvious in 1918 - late movers on acting will likely pay a steeper price.

[wsushox1]

Also, I was stunned to hear that Italy's "lockdown" that they announced a few weeks ago really wasn't a lockdown. it was more of "stay at home if you can" directive. Plenty of people still going to work in offices, etc.

I was in Lombardy this past summer and everything is so, so communal there (in addition to old residents) that it is not suprising how fast it moved through that area.

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

I just saw on TV a couple of things that really make me question the sanity of some of our elected leaders.
1) The Senate gym, of all places, was open today.
2) Rand Paul went to the gym and worked out, then it got out his Covid test was positive.

So do our elected representatives think they have some magic that will prevent them from getting sick? And if Rand was sick, WTH was he doing at the gym working out? SMH.....both sides ought to know better.

I'm fighting hard enough to just get my exercise in. I ride a bike and (unless you hit one of the trails) it is fairly easy to find a place to ride and support social distancing. But isn't it true that most of the gyms almost anywhere else have been closed for at least a week (seems like that was around the time I read the article from the Genesis Health Club owner).

[Kung Wu]

So what's your rationale on that?

First, I have faith in the American medical infrastructure and American people in general, compared with Italy, but that's neither here nor there.

He is saying 40-80% of the state of New York, which has 19,300,000 people.

If he is right ...

The 1% you are sighting is of confirmed cases. If 80% of 19,300,000 residents get it, only 15% of those will report due to it being severe and become confirmed cases: 19,300,000 x 0.8 x .15 = 2,316,000 confirmed cases. Of those 1% might pass away = 23,160.

However ...

Based on my own personal calculations I do not believe we will see 2.3M confirmed cases in the state of New York alone, AND I do not believe the 1% death rate you are assuming will be accurate in New York (and especially America overall) when it's all said and done.



Edit: Oops I said 60% but then calculated 80% of New Yorkers getting it. I fixed to worst case scenario 80%.

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

Read an article about people in Louisiana that believed it was a "hoax" and "just the flu" (wonder where that rhetoric came from) until people in their inner circle started dropping and were intubated.

As was painfully obvious in 1918 - late movers on acting will likely pay a steeper price.

The largest number of these were in New Orleans. Where healthcare is subpar at best for the large portion of low income families that call it home.

To find out more about why Healthcare is in the state it is in New Orleans, night I suggest you look up “Big Charity” on Netflix.

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

Also, I was stunned to hear that Italy's "lockdown" that they announced a few weeks ago really wasn't a lockdown. it was more of "stay at home if you can" directive. Plenty of people still going to work in offices, etc.

I was in Lombardy this past summer and everything is so, so communal there (in addition to old residents) that it is not suprising how fast it moved through that area.

Saw the area around Lake Como when I was on the TGV from Milan to Zurich a few years ago. That is a really pretty area. I would like to go back and spend some time after this is all over with. It looked like the epicenter (in Lombardy) was relatively close to that area.

But back on topic, isn't that what we are seeing here - I've seen crowds at the beaches in Florida and Texas. And Cuomo had pictures from NYC during his daily 'show and tell' that seemed to indicate the same.