Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[Kung Wu]

Kansas 03-19-2020.PNG

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

Yesterday was this biggest jump by far. 2400 new cases in a single day in the US. I think we will see some large jumps like that for several days.

Mainly due to more tests being available to confirm.

[Kung Wu]

Mainly due to more tests being available to confirm.

Yup.

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

Yesterday was this biggest jump by far. 2400 new cases in a single day in the US. I think we will see some large jumps like that for several days.

So I would consider the death rate, in this case, to be a lagging indicator, but I'm not watching it too closely (Cases start to spike, people linger for a week or two, then pass - initial infection is a leading indicator, followed by an increase in the death rates as the small percentage of the population gradually worsen at a future point, which would be the lagging indicator).

Anyone want to weigh in on this assumption? Also noting a spike in severe cases among younger people, especially here in the U.S.

[1979Shocker]

Coronavirus: Asian nations face second wave of imported cases

[wsushox1]

Not to get ahead of ourselves here, but the next big thing to be tackled is antigen testing (serology test) for all of those who have had it asymptomatically or very mild symptoms. We need to be able to test damn near everyone in the country this way so that we can begin clearing people to return to work, volunteer with high risk populations, etc.

The good news there are hundreds of companies and universities capable of providing this testing - just need to empower then and cut red tape.

[OregonShocker]

So I would consider the death rate, in this case, to be a lagging indicator, but I'm not watching it too closely (Cases start to spike, people linger for a week or two, then pass - initial infection is a leading indicator, followed by an increase in the death rates as the small percentage of the population gradually worsen at a future point, which would be the lagging indicator).

Anyone want to weigh in on this assumption? Also noting a spike in severe cases among younger people, especially here in the U.S.

No one within the health care industry is looking at death rates. That's for forums like this. We are concerned about resource utilization/availability/illness within essential personnel, etc.
It was always a fallacy (dare I say ignorance) to think this was an old person's, or a high risk person's, problem. We've known this. The CDC/WHO people know this. That's why you listen to the experts, not the talking heads (and there's a BUNCH out there in various stages of "expertise").

Want good info? It's at your fingertips. CDC.gov.

[WuDrWu]

Not to get ahead of ourselves here, but the next big thing to be tackled is antigen testing (serology test) for all of those who have had it asymptomatically or very mild symptoms. We need to be able to test damn near everyone in the country this way so that we can begin clearing people to return to work, volunteer with high risk populations, etc.

The good news there are hundreds of companies and universities capable of providing this testing - just need to empower then and cut red tape.

Can you provide more information on this process? We can already do this ?

[wsushox1]

Can you provide more information on this process? We can already do this ?

Serology testing is a capability, yes. Singapore is the only country (city-state) that has announced they have a way to isolate the antigens and test. Though many labs/universities/biotech startups have said they are capable. Mayo Clinic is allegedly a week away from isolating the COVID-19 antibodies and providing a roadmap for how to then test. Mt. Sinai (first link) has developed a serological test.

The money quote from the Mt. SInai Study:

Results: The assays are sensitive and specific, allowing for screening and identification of COVID19 seroconverters using human plasma/serum as early as 3 days post symptom onset. Importantly, these assays do not require handling of infectious virus, can be adjusted to detect different antibody types and are amendable to scaling. Conclusion: Serological assays are of critical importance to determine seroprevalence in a given population, define previous exposure and identify highly reactive human donors for the generation of convalescent serum as therapeutic. Sensitive and specific identification of coronavirus SARS-Cov-2 antibody titers will also support screening of health care workers to identify those who are already immune and can be deployed to care for infected patients minimizing the risk of viral spread to colleagues and other patients.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6...-19-really-is/

https://www.biospace.com/article/rel...rus-exposure-/

https://globalbiodefense.com/2020/03...ology-testing/

https://www.aacc.org/publications/cl...ing-to-covid19

https://www.grandforksherald.com/lif...-antibody-test

Serology tests are capable of being run widely across the country. Just have to finalize a method the method and "deploy" to labs that are capable across the country.


Here is a twitter thread with one of the lead authors of the Mt. Sinai Study:

[wsushox1]

nm

[SB Shock]

Not to get ahead of ourselves here, but the next big thing to be tackled is antigen testing (serology test) for all of those who have had it asymptomatically or very mild symptoms. We need to be able to test damn near everyone in the country this way so that we can begin clearing people to return to work, volunteer with high risk populations, etc.

The good news there are hundreds of companies and universities capable of providing this testing - just need to empower then and cut red tape.

There was a Italian city (small one 3-4,000) who decided to test everybody. They found that 3% were infected and so they separated them from the main population and that shut the virus down.

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

No one within the health care industry is looking at death rates. That's for forums like this. We are concerned about resource utilization/availability/illness within essential personnel, etc.
It was always a fallacy (dare I say ignorance) to think this was an old person's, or a high risk person's, problem. We've known this. The CDC/WHO people know this. That's why you listen to the experts, not the talking heads (and there's a BUNCH out there in various stages of "expertise").

Want good info? It's at your fingertips. CDC.gov.

First of all, thanks!


I've looked @ that website, however, I do believe death rate would be a lagging metric, until the healthcare industry gets overwhelmed. Then not so much.

And I appreciate your information on risk profile. This virus can morph (I know, seems like a simple comment from me) and it could be that it is now could hit the middle aged folks like the Spanish Flu did in 1918.

[MoValley John]

Got tested. Got my results back.

[WstateU]

Got tested. Got my results back.

Got that one back yesterday too...

[Kung Wu]

Got tested. Got my results back.

LMAO!