Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[1979Shocker]

US Airports Saw Massive Lines After Coronavirus Travel Restrictions

[wufan]

I appreciate a lot of information you provide and I know it can’t be how you feel but, you come across as cheering for your numbers to keep trending as you predict just to say, ‘I told you so’.

Sometimes it just not worth it to try and get the last word in some situations.

Fair enough.

[shocktown]

US Airports Saw Massive Lines After Coronavirus Travel Restrictions

That looks bad. Not totally unusual, ever been through customs when a flurry of flights arrive and half the station are closed,somewhat similar.

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

Since you first posted on this two days ago (when we are at 135k) there has been a 22% increase in worldwide cases. When you remove China, it’s a 60% increase in just two days. This is how exponential growth works.

Just so you know, in 3-4 weeks we should be at ~ 750K worldwide.

I appreciate a lot of information you provide and I know it can’t be how you feel but, you come across as cheering for your numbers to keep trending as you predict just to say, ‘I told you so’.

Sometimes it just not worth it to try and get the last word in some situations.

I don't think he is trying to 'cheer' for any bad outcome. I think he's trying to point something out to one of the board morons who likes to hog some of the bandwidth here.

I also think said board moron has no training in statistics or math, so if you believe them, you might have a very unpleasant surprise.

Could something like this:
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/03...azoria-county/

end up becoming something like this?
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-...s-philadelphia

I dunno, but I would put more stock in what Wufan is saying. Especially given his training and expertise in the pharm area.

I am looking around here where I am and seeing a lot of panic. Seems like there are behaviors I'm seeing that are akin to hoarding. That being said, I am prudently planning to be in isolation for at least 3 weeks, perhaps longer.

I don't think it hurts to have some sense of understanding what this could develop into, frame that around prudent behavior and monitor closely. I **probably** have enough stuff set back so I can lock down for a couple of weeks. I plan on keeping about two weeks worth of stuff around and will take further measures if I see that my area is starting to have issues (spontaneous transmission). My car has a full tank of gas so that if we decide we need to go some place that is safer, I can leave.

A lot of people are going to get sick and I would guess most people who read this will be impacted with the loss of a family member or friend before this is over with. I believe Dr. Fauci (CDC epidemiologist) said, based on the latest information, that their estimate on the number of deaths here could be as low as a half-million or as large as almost 2. I would guess that they got that range from running their model for the spread of this disease over and over again to obtain a range.

So I guess my point is that you might want to consider Wufan's numbers as a worst-case scenario, and plan accordingly, especially if you are at high risk for complications if you become infected.

[shocktown]

I appreciate a lot of information you provide and I know it can’t be how you feel but, you come across as cheering for your numbers to keep trending as you predict just to say, ‘I told you so’.

Sometimes it just not worth it to try and get the last word in some situations.

I don't think he is trying to 'cheer' for any bad outcome. I think he's trying to point something out to one of the board morons who likes to hog some of the bandwidth here.

I also think said board moron has no training in statistics or math, so if you believe them, you might have a very unpleasant surprise.

Could something like this:
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/03...azoria-county/

end up becoming something like this?
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-...s-philadelphia

I dunno, but I would put more stock in what Wufan is saying. Especially given his training and expertise in the pharm area.

I am looking around here where I am and seeing a lot of panic. Seems like there are behaviors I'm seeing that are akin to hoarding. That being said, I am prudently planning to be in isolation for at least 3 weeks, perhaps longer.

I don't think it hurts to have some sense of understanding what this could develop into, frame that around prudent behavior and monitor closely. I **probably** have enough stuff set back so I can lock down for a couple of weeks. I plan on keeping about two weeks worth of stuff around and will take further measures if I see that my area is starting to have issues (spontaneous transmission). My car has a full tank of gas so that if we decide we need to go some place that is safer, I can leave.

A lot of people are going to get sick and I would guess most people who read this will be impacted with the loss of a family member or friend before this is over with. I believe Dr. Fauci (CDC epidemiologist) said, based on the latest information, that their estimate on the number of deaths here could be as low as a half-million or as large as almost 2. I would guess that they got that range from running their model for the spread of this disease over and over again to obtain a range.

So I guess my point is that you might want to consider Wufan's numbers as a worst-case scenario, and plan accordingly, especially if you are at high risk for complications if you become infected.

That’s why I started with a qualifier.

Wufan info is absolutely good stuff, I listen to multiple perspectives, that’s not a bad idea. 18 months ago he questioned the ramifications of all our pharmaceuticals coming from China, way ahead the crowd.

thanks for the lecture

[ShockerFever]

Since you first posted on this two days ago (when we are at 135k) there has been a 22% increase in worldwide cases. When you remove China, it’s a 60% increase in just two days. This is how exponential growth works.

Just so you know, in 3-4 weeks we should be at ~ 750K worldwide.

Is it more people that are contracting it or is it that more people are being tested?

Is it on pace to pass the 500,000,000 people that get infected with the flu every year?

[wufan]

Is it more people that are contracting it or is it that more people are being tested?

Is it on pace to pass the 500,000,000 people that get infected with the flu every year?

I’m not really qualified to answer. My guess is that it’s mostly more people getting it at this point, but certainly some of the increase is due to testing kits getting online. Estimates are that one person will infect 2.6 persons with Covid whereas flu victims infect 1.8 per.

It is on pace to surpass 500m this year, but I don’t think it will get there due to the extreme measures countries are taking and because there were basically zero cases going into the year (I.e. half of flu cases happen in the first half of the year and half in the second half; whereas most of the Coronavirus cases will occur in the second half of this year with no infected populous spreading it prior to December 2019). That said, the CDC says it will get there within a year and I’m not going to argue with them.

[SB Shock]

From somebody I follow in Japan is reporting that the Japanese government is making it really difficult to test. Their thinking is they are afraid if they test it will show they have a problem and the olympics will have to be cancelled.

[pie n eye]

Is it on pace to pass the 500,000,000 people that get infected with the flu every year?

Do you understand that this doesn’t replace the flu?

Whether it is or isn’t worse than the flu is irrelevant.

Those X number people are still going to get the flu. The Covid cases will be in addition to the flu cases and all other things that require people to go to the hospital.

Therein lies the worry.

[ShockingButTrue]

I appreciate a lot of information you provide and I know it can’t be how you feel but, you come across as cheering for your numbers to keep trending as you predict just to say, ‘I told you so’.

Sometimes it just not worth it to try and get the last word in some situations.

I don't think he is trying to 'cheer' for any bad outcome. I think he's trying to point something out to one of the board morons who likes to hog some of the bandwidth here.

I also think said board moron has no training in statistics or math, so if you believe them, you might have a very unpleasant surprise.

Could something like this:
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/03...azoria-county/

end up becoming something like this?
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-...s-philadelphia

I dunno, but I would put more stock in what Wufan is saying. Especially given his training and expertise in the pharm area.

I am looking around here where I am and seeing a lot of panic. Seems like there are behaviors I'm seeing that are akin to hoarding. That being said, I am prudently planning to be in isolation for at least 3 weeks, perhaps longer.

I don't think it hurts to have some sense of understanding what this could develop into, frame that around prudent behavior and monitor closely. I **probably** have enough stuff set back so I can lock down for a couple of weeks. I plan on keeping about two weeks worth of stuff around and will take further measures if I see that my area is starting to have issues (spontaneous transmission). My car has a full tank of gas so that if we decide we need to go some place that is safer, I can leave.

A lot of people are going to get sick and I would guess most people who read this will be impacted with the loss of a family member or friend before this is over with. I believe Dr. Fauci (CDC epidemiologist) said, based on the latest information, that their estimate on the number of deaths here could be as low as a half-million or as large as almost 2. I would guess that they got that range from running their model for the spread of this disease over and over again to obtain a range.

So I guess my point is that you might want to consider Wufan's numbers as a worst-case scenario, and plan accordingly, especially if you are at high risk for complications if you become infected.

Back again huh? Anchors Aweigh, oh wait...



What's the latest number at Ground Zero Einstein?

[wufan]

Back again huh? Anchors Aweigh, oh wait...



What's the latest number at Ground Zero Einstein?

I think I get it now. You think we should enact the same policies as China here in the US. I think that’s too harsh.

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

I think I get it now. You think we should enact the same policies as China here in the US. I think that’s too harsh.

Says the guy who gets his medical advice from the white version of Tekashi69.

Top of the morning to you!

BTW, since your entertainer guy is so smart, would you mind explaining that whole thing about smoking doensn't cause lung cancer, either? Especially seeing as, unless there is a miracle, he probably won't be here next year.....

[1979Shocker]

Coronavirus kills Iran religious leader as death toll jumps again

[1979Shocker]

Italy reports 368 coronavirus deaths in 24 hours

[1979Shocker]

Two Emergency Room Doctors Are in Critical Condition With Coronavirus