2017-2018 Bracketology

[WuDrWu]

The cheaters up north will be in ICT, no matter the seed, and that's disgusting. Prepare to throw up a little.

[Windiwu]

How many games can they lose and still even get in to the tournament?

[Shocker1976]

How many games can they lose and still even get in to the tournament?

IMO the Beakers are a lock for the Big Dance with 10 losses; 11-12 losses starting to become problematic; >12 losses the Beakers could miss the tourney.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

They would be a lock with 12. Probably in with 13.

Reality... they will lose 8-10 and get a 4 seed.

[ShockingButTrue]

They could get in with 12 losses, no sweat.

They beat Kentucky for "really" big win. Any losses after that are voided.

[pogo]

I bought two tickets on the original offering hoping the beakers would be here so I could double my money.

[Shocker1976]

JH4P if the Beakers are a lock with 12 losses, then what seed do you think they will draw?

The Beakers could suffer four loses in January (three away TCU, WVU and OU; and TAMU at AFH on Jan 27th); should these losses occur do you think the character of the Beakers will enable them to play well in February knowing they are not going to win the Big 12 and capture a 1 or 2 seed in the Dance?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Do I think the character of the Beakers will enable them...?

I don't buy your premise that KU has some unique character that makes them different than most teams, or that failing to win the Big 12 will be an automatic death spiral due to a broken spirit.

[Shocker1976]

I am not promoting a "premise"; just asking for the seed you think the Beakers will receive if they have 12 losses. IMO to get to 12 losses the Beakers have to lose the 4 January games I listed and then lose 5 games in February (4 likely - @Baylor; @TTU; WVU and OU).

IMO and experience nothing "unique" about a team with the Beakers winning history going into a funk (giving up like Oubre did) when their world is turned upside down should their record at the end of January be 15-7. I am not a Beaker fan but I recognize BS is the best coach the Beakers have had since Phog Allen but the Beaker roster is thin this year.

[ShockTalk]

JH4P if the Beakers are a lock with 12 losses, then what seed do you think they will draw?

The Beakers could suffer four loses in January (three away TCU, WVU and OU; and TAMU at AFH on Jan 27th); should these losses occur do you think the character of the Beakers will enable them to play well in February knowing they are not going to win the Big 12 and capture a 1 or 2 seed in the Dance?

Currently, here is what rpiforecast.com projects:

1) They project a 24-7 record which would have an RPI factor of 8.5. That correlates to a #4 overall or, based on RPI, the last #1 seed.

2) 21-10 record has an RPI factor of 18.7. Currently, that correlates to #15/#16 overall or the last of the 4 seeds.

3) 19-12 record has an RPI factor of 31.8. Correlates to #28/#29 overall or last 7 seed, first 8 seed.

4) 17-14 record has an RPI factor of 40.8. That's in the #35-38 range.

[WuShock Reaper]

"Bracketology: First projected field following non-conference play" - FanSided

by Lukas Harkins
Posted: 01/01/18

https://bustingbrackets.com/2018/01/01/bracketology-first-projected-field-following-non-conference-play/

"East Region
(1) Villanova vs. (16) Texas Southern/North Carolina A&T
(8) Minnesota vs. (9) Florida State

(4) Wichita State vs. (13) Vermont
(5) Kentucky vs. (12) Towson

(6) Auburn vs. (11) Houston
(3) North Carolina vs. (14) Lipscomb

(7) Cincinnati vs. (10) Ohio State
(2) Oklahoma vs. (15) UC Santa Barbara

Yes, even though Villanova lost to Butler in their second Big East game, they are still a No. 1 seed in my projected bracket. The Wildcats represent the top team out of the Big East and have the makings of a potential NCAA champion. The biggest issue for Jay Wright’s team is their depth due to some injuries to their bench, but the starters are remarkably effective. Jalen Brunson is the leader of this team but Mikal Bridges is arguably the best second option in the nation.

The No. 2 seed in this region is one of the most surprising teams in the country. Led by superstar freshman Trae Young, the Oklahoma Sooners have been absolutely tremendous this season. Their only loss on the year came to an NCAA Tournament team in Arkansas and they hold wins over TCU, Wichita State, and USC.

After the top two, there are a bunch of teams who have underwhelmed so far this year. Wichita State, Kentucky, and Minnesota were all expected to be top-15 teams in the country this season and are not as good as anticipated. Will they step up their game in conference play to move up?..."

[Cdizzle]

Those pesky teams that were expected to be Top 15 before the season, but have woefully underperformed, falling to.....#9.

[WuShock Reaper]

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Matrix last updated: 1/1/18, 4:16 PM

Bracketmatrix	11/10	11/23	12/1	12/9	12/16	12/24	1/1
Seed 1	6	3	1		6
Seed 2	27	8	10	12	14	7	8
Seed 3	10	4	10	10	5	10	8
Seed 4	2		2		4	4	13
Seed 5	2	1	1	1	1	6	10
Seed 6						1	4
Seed 7			1	1		3	1
Seed 8
Seed 9					1	1	2
Not Rated	1
Totals	48	16	25	24	31	32	46
Seed 1	13%	19%	4%		19%	0%	0%
Seed 2	56%	50%	40%	50%	45%	22%	17%
Seed 3	21%	25%	40%	42%	16%	31%	17%
Seed 4	4%		8%		13%	13%	28%
Seed 5	4%	6%	4%	4%	3%	19%	22%
Seed 6						3%	9%
Seed 7			4%	4%		9%	2%
Seed 8
Seed 9					3%	3%	4%
Not Rated	2%
Totals	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Overall	2 Seed	2 Seed	2 Seed	2 Seed	2 Seed	4-Seed	4-Seed
Average	2.30	1.81	2.84	2.75	2.55	3.94	4.15

[ShockerFever]

Those pesky teams that were expected to be Top 15 before the season, but have woefully underperformed, falling to.....#9.

We don’t have a quality loss like Wofford on the resume.

[Cdizzle]

We don’t have a quality loss like Wofford on the resume.

Good point. And I'm not even arguing we're underrated or haven't underperformed, but I will argue the terrible logic.

[shocks02]

Lunardi has 4 AAC teams in now with Tulsa as an AQ since they're currently leading the conference. Houston still in "First Four Out."

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[Cdizzle]

If you use the league's preseason ranking as a guide and adjust for H/A, Tulsa has the easiest conference schedule.

[ShockingButTrue]

Tulsa at times this year has looked like a well coached team who plays fairly smart. They'll pull an upset or two along the way...

[Cdizzle]

Yesterday wasn't a good example of that. Nobody wanted to win that game. Henderson just happened to hit 8 3s.

[WuShock Reaper]

"Bracketology: Duke, Oklahoma join Villanova, Michigan State as No. 1 seeds" - CBS Sports

By Jerry Palm
Posted: 01/05/17, 1:00pm cst

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

"...No. 1 seeds: Duke, Michigan State, Villanova, Oklahoma

No. 2 seeds: Arizona State, Texas Tech, Xavier, West Virginia

No. 3 seeds: Purdue, Virginia, TCU, Wichita State
Purdue leads the group of No. 3 seeds and is the only team with more than three Tier 1 wins in the new NCAA system for defining the quality of a win. You can read about the new tier system here. The Boilermakers have a whopping five Tier 1 wins so far. If not for a loss to Western Kentucky, Purdue could be battling for a spot at the top of the bracket.

No. 4 seeds: Arizona, Arkansas, Auburn, Seton Hall

No home cooking for Wichita State, Creighton
You may wonder why Wichita State and Creighton have been moved from their home cities. Each school is serving as the host institution at those sites, and as such, is ineligible to play there. Additionally, in Creighton's case, the Midwest Regional is in their home building, so even if the Bluejays were not hosting, they still could not play there.

West Region
6 Kansas
11 St. Mary's

3 Wichita State
14 Louisiana

7 Texas
10 Notre Dame

2 Arizona St.
15 Montana St.

[shocks02]

Interesting to see that Palm has UCF as a 9-seed. If they can finish Top 4 in this league they'll certainly have an argument.

[Windiwu]

He also has KU as a six seed in our bracket.. If they are as bad then as they are looking now, I'm not sure that game would even give us decent bragging rights.