2017-18 National Poll Rankings

[wufan]

well, i'll have to agree with uconn husky here- i'd rather have gregg marshall than bill self as head coach at wichita state university. yeah, seriously. 100% slam dunk, fo' sho'. some here think differently than that. that's ok too.

the one h2h matchup between the two of them is pretty telling, though, wufan, career statistics be damned. or maybe you classify that as a major upset.

I take Marshall over Self easy. I have no problem despising KU, or making fun of Self for dropping out of the NCAA early. That is not in conflict with Billy boy being one of the 5 or 10 best basketball coaches in the country. Same for Coach Cal.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

JH4P picked Ks bad numbers precisely to demonstrate that the greatest current coach can be shown to be weak IF you cherry pick your analytics.

Close, but not quite. I picked Duke over the last 14 years because everyone considers (rightfully) Coach K to be a top 1-2 active coach. Yes, a big part of it is what he did in the 90s. If you look at the timeframe that Self has been at KU, Duke has had less success than many seem to think. It seems Coach K has earned the respect that allows him to "underachieve" in March and not get called out for it very often.

No, Bill Self is not at Coach K's level overall (total career achievements). That's easy to see. But I just find it funny that Self gets such a knock for underachieving when he has been very comparable to Coach K the past 14 years in terms of post season success. I keep going back to the stat for total NCAA wins. Both KU and Duke have made the Tourney each of the last 14 years, and KU has more NCAA wins than Duke. That seems like a really surprising stat given the general perception of the two programs/coaches.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Regular season: OK. Mike only finished 1st 11 times during those 21 "great" years, so he didn't match Bill in that area. However, it appears Bill didn't/doesn't have a North Carolina to compete with either. That kind of thing makes these comparisons tough.

I'm not looking only at the Big 12 title streak. Just look at NCAA seeding. Duke isn't exactly lacking the opportunities (like WSU has been in the MVC) to be seeded as well as they deserve any given year, yet...

Since 2004
KU's average seed - 1.9
Duke's average seed - 2.1

Since 2007
KU's average seed - 1.5
Duke's average seed - 2.4

Basically, Duke had better regular seasons in 2004-2006 (Self's first 3 seasons at KU). Self has been dominant ever since.

Given that the Big 12 streak should be worth *something*, and that looking at average seed favors KU, I just don't see the title for "best regular season resume" being up for dispute.

Best regular season resume + most NCAA wins during that timeframe + owns a NC = great/elite coach

[another shocker]

I take Marshall over Self easy. I have no problem despising KU, or making fun of Self for dropping out of the NCAA early. That is not in conflict with Billy boy being one of the 5 or 10 best basketball coaches in the country. Same for Coach Cal.

and watch out for kelvin sampson at houston.

[ShockTalk]

I'm not looking only at the Big 12 title streak. Just look at NCAA seeding. Duke isn't exactly lacking the opportunities (like WSU has been in the MVC) to be seeded as well as they deserve any given year, yet...

Since 2004
KU's average seed - 1.9
Duke's average seed - 2.1

Since 2007
KU's average seed - 1.5
Duke's average seed - 2.4

Basically, Duke had better regular seasons in 2004-2006 (Self's first 3 seasons at KU). Self has been dominant ever since.

Given that the Big 12 streak should be worth *something*, and that looking at average seed favors KU, I just don't see the title for "best regular season resume" being up for dispute.

Best regular season resume + most NCAA wins during that timeframe + owns a NC = great/elite coach

OK. We're back to this 14 year period it looks like. I don't believe Coach K has been a great coach (elite, yes) during these last years, either, when it comes to the Big Stage. His teams, too, have underperformed when compared to seeding.

In most sports, they don't care how great you are during the regular season. It's how you finish those seasons. I think you will find that both in recent years have generally way underperformed their seeding.

[ShockCrazy]

OK. We're back to this 14 year period it looks like. I don't believe Coach K has been a great coach (elite, yes) during these last years, either, when it comes to the Big Stage. His teams, too, have underperformed when compared to seeding.

In most sports, they don't care how great you are during the regular season. It's how you finish those seasons. I think you will find that both in recent years have generally way underperformed their seeding.

I'd be careful to put too much stock in results of a single elimination tournament, you might just realize that it seriously undervalues what is very likely the 2nd best team in the Marshall era so far, 2012 and even the best team, 2014. Even beyond that year, I think the 2016 team was a borderline final four quality team, but they didn't make the second weekend. Yes there were extenuating circumstances, but that's the exact point. It's of course the big prize, but too many simple variables can cause a "failed" season if that's how you wanna judge it.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I don't believe Coach K has been a great coach (elite, yes) during these last years, either, when it comes to the Big Stage. His teams, too, have underperformed when compared to seeding.

Thanks. That is honest. I'm actually not looking to knock Coach K. Even with his "recent failures", I'm hard pressed to find many coaches with more post season success during that time frame. Maybe that's my point. There is too much assuming going on that every top 10 team should go to the Final Four or else they were a failure. It just can't work that way. Statistically, fewer than 50% of 1 seeds actually make the Final Four. Coach K's run in the late 80s and 90s was incredible. I think too many people expect that level of post season success, and get misguided into believing that anything less is a failure.

In most sports, they don't care how great you are during the regular season. It's how you finish those seasons. I think you will find that both in recent years have generally way underperformed their seeding.

Obviously, I'm one who thinks this "regular season is meaningless" approach is silly. But yes, many people think that way.

I do disagree, however, that either KU or Duke would be found to have "way underperformed their seeding" in the past 14 years. Slighty? Maybe. Way? No.

Finally, let's stop and recognize how great, and rare, of an accomplishment it is to have been such a high seed, on such a consistent basis, for such a long time.

[MadaboutWu]

A good measure of a coach in the tournament would be to look at how many wins on average certain seed lines achieve and how a coach's results compare. It might be more useful in comparing Self, Coach K, and other perennial high seeds than HCGM though since the seeding of the Shockers has been so poor of late.

[jocoshock]

Take away a lucky performance by a cheating coach against Oklahoma and the Beakers lose another National Championship.

IMO Bill Self is the best coach the Beakers have had since Phog Allen - if he is not a great coach he is certainly an elite coach.

Do you agree with my parallel ranking of Beaker coaches during my lifetime?

1 - Phog Allen (greatest college basketball coach ever)
2 - Bill Self
3 - Roy Williams (a whiner almost on the same level as Jim Boeheim)
4 - Larry Brown (a cheater without peer)
5 - Ted Owens
6 - Dick Harp

NOT a KU fan at all, but a couple of observations:
1) Phog Allen is not the greatest coach of all time. Not even at KU. If he is, then Ralph Miller is the GOAT at WSU
2) If not for a lucky shot by Mike Jones, Shox lose the battle of New Orleans.

[kcshocker11]

Having seen almost all of KU's games and WSU whenver they are on up here. I will take 3G any day of the week.

[Husker4Shockers]

Self reminds me of Billy Tubbs; get better players than anyone else, roll the ball out on the floor and say, "Go get 'em, boys!", then sit back and watch.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

A good measure of a coach in the tournament would be to look at how many wins on average certain seed lines achieve and how a coach's results compare. It might be more useful in comparing Self, Coach K, and other perennial high seeds than HCGM though since the seeding of the Shockers has been so poor of late.

Based on historical results, 1 seeds average 3.36 wins, 2 seeds average 2.38, etc.

http://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/seedadv.html

Last 14 years
KU - Expected wins 37.4, Actual 33
Duke - Expected wins 36.5, Actual 31
Marshall (WSU/Winthrop) - Ex 8, Actual 11

It will be interesting to follow this as Gregg Marshall's sample size gets larger, and as many of us expect, the seeding improves and thus, the expected wins/yr improves. Personally, I think the analysis above is favorable to Marshall because he has had some good teams get underseeded. That makes it easier to outperform expected wins based on seed. A string of seasons with single digits seeds in the coming years could make that much tougher.

On the other end of the spectrum, if KU is routinely overseeded, as many here claim, then they haven't really underperformed relative to their actual ability, but rather, just relative to the constant 1 and 2 seeds they've been given. Change some 1s and 2s to 2s and 3s, and you would soon see KU's expected win total fall right in line with their 33 actual wins.

[Play Angry]

http://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/seedadv.html

This is a cool site, thanks for posting it.

Looks like WSU's expected win total the last 5 years was 6.06 (vs. 10 actual). Pretty neat.

[Shocker1976]

NOT a KU fan at all, but a couple of observations:
1) Phog Allen is not the greatest coach of all time. Not even at KU. If he is, then Ralph Miller is the GOAT at WSU
2) If not for a lucky shot by Mike Jones, Shox lose the battle of New Orleans.

I am not a Beaker fan either; but regards Phog Allen, who (especially at KU) do you think is a better coach?

[shockmonster]

NOT a KU fan at all, but a couple of observations:
2) If not for a lucky shot by Mike Jones, Shox lose the battle of New Orleans.

I think the word "lucky" is a poor word choice. During the early 1980's the 3 ball was not a part of the college basketball game. If it would have, this team would have been very good because Aubrey and Mike would have stretched out defenses and allowed Antoine, Cliff, and Ozell operate close to the basket.

Back to Mike, he was a very good, and also inconsistent long range shooter. Why shoot a long range shot and only receive 2 points when odds were better in close with the big guys, so he received a lot of deserved criticism when he took his long range jumper. Mike would have been a 33-35% 3 point shooter in his day if they had a 3 point shot (not great but a respectable percentage even today), and Aubrey would have been in the 40% range imo. Mike was in a shooting "slump" when the Battle of NO took place, but a 35 foot shot was definitely within his range. He probably was our best shooter from that deep. KU obviously was spending their defense clogging in their zone to stop Antoine, and our other inside big guys. Additionally, they were paying close attention to Aubrey. Mike got the shot and put it in to earn a spot in Shocker lore.

Yea Mike. :)