16-17 Games of Interest

[ShockTalk]

WSU's rpi is a non-factor. It's upper-70's or lower 80's lately with very little chance of changing much the rest of the year.

the Shox could win every game on the rest of the schedule and lose in the finals in St. Louis. If that happened, they'd have 5 losses on the season and an rpi in the 70's. that could be one of the worst rpi's in the history of teams with a 28-5 record.

While 28-5 is generally considered a lock for an at large, and WSU's recent reputation should enhance their chances of getting an at large at 28-5, the nation would absolutely come unglued if a team with a 70's rpi got in the tourney ahead of a P5 school with a losing record in their conference, but an rpi in the 50's.

Maybe the Shox could work their rpi into the 60's range, but the same thing would still happen.

Where are you getting these numbers? I've found rpiforecast.com to be pretty accurate. This page indicates that they disagree with your RPI numbers. Their numbers do not go through the Valley tournament, just the end of the regular season. They have WSU better than 50 if they lose one more and are 25-5 (they don't count the D-II game). If WSU runs the table (26-4), it's about 40.

[WheatShock]

That paints a somewhat brighter picture than I thought it would be. I still won't be comfortable unless we win St. Louis.

[ShockingButTrue]

Their best player, Jordan Woodard was back and had 20 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists. The game was at West Virginia too.

Their pace setter returned.

[Topshock]

Did not care for Fran Fraschilla's remark that "OU had an ugly loss to WSU while Woodard was out" The game I watched he played 34 minutes and scored a career high 28 points.

[Cdizzle]

Fran may have been drunk. He also said some things that you should not say on primetime cable television.

[ShockerFever]

Did not care for Fran Fraschilla's remark that "OU had an ugly loss to WSU while Woodard was out" The game I watched he played 34 minutes and scored a career high 28 points.

That idiot said that?

Well, you can tell his credibility is high when he can't even get his basic facts straight.

[DUShock]

Perhaps someone use twitter and set the record straight w/ Mr. Fraschilla.

[WstateU]

Did not care for Fran Fraschilla's remark that "OU had an ugly loss to WSU while Woodard was out" The game I watched he played 34 minutes and scored a career high 28 points.

Yes, we win by 25 without him. :)

[WstateU]

Perhaps someone use twitter and set the record straight w/ Mr. Fraschilla.

Hopefully someone does it in a classy way. I always thought he was complimentary of WSU; recall him being on Ron and Fred's bandwagon.

[Play Angry]

So, our overall SOS is destined for deep disappointment but there are still a few pockets of specific rooting interests w/r/t our OOC opponents to watch closely over the next 6 weeks:

Tulsa

The Golden Hurricane has been surprisingly good in AAC play and has a chance to claw their way into the Top 100. RPIForecast gives them a 22.74% chance of having an RPI of 88 or better heading into their conference tournament (odds increase to 47.6% if you tack on an extra loss, which pegs them to finish with an RPI of 103.9 and still have a fighting chance at the Top 100 depending on how they show in the AAC Tournament). 17-13 regular season record appears to be the target to finish comfortably in the Top 100 - right now they are 10-7 (so we would need them to finish 7-6 down the stretch). This has been arguably the only pleasant surprise in our non-conference schedule, but it may be an important one if Tulsa can earn us an extra Top 100 dub.

Oklahoma

Jordan Woodard is back and so are the Sooners. RPIForecast gives OU just a 9.51% chance at finishing in the Top 100, but those odds are artificially suppressed because they weight the games Woodard missed equally with those he has played in. Looking at their schedule, I think OU has an excellent chance at finishing 14-16 (which would project to an RPI of 91.4) or 15-15 (which would project to an RPI of 76.7). 16-14 is not totally out of the question and would net the Sooners an RPI of 62.3 (and possibly to our chagrin would insert the Sooners into the fringe of the bubble conversation given their injury situation).


Obviously we should continue to root for LBSU, SCSU, SDSU and friends to pull their heads out at some point and rack up as many wins as possible. However, the teams above represent the only opportunities for our meager OOC resume to add some relevant wins for the nitty gritty sheets. None of this matters if we lose to the Redbirds at Koch or suffer any other loss between now and St. Louis IMO, but it adds a little spice to life as we (hopefully) operate the bulldozer in MVC play these next few weeks.

[Play Angry]

This was also mentioned on the prior page but below is the breakdown of our anticipated RPI depending on our performance down the stretch (again, per RPIForecast):

0 losses between now and Arch Madness: 26-4 record vs. D1 opponents (17-1 MVC), RPI of 40.2 - 30.92%
1 loss between now and Arch Madness: 25-5 record vs. D1 opponents (16-2 MVC), RPI of 48.6 - 39.02%
2 losses between now and Arch Madness: 24-6 record vs. D1 opponents (15-3 MVC), RPI of 58.7 - 21.34%

The remaining options account for less than 9% cumulative probabilities.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

WSU's rpi is a non-factor. It's upper-70's or lower 80's lately with very little chance of changing much the rest of the year.

the Shox could win every game on the rest of the schedule and lose in the finals in St. Louis. If that happened, they'd have 5 losses on the season and an rpi in the 70's. that could be one of the worst rpi's in the history of teams with a 28-5 record.

the nation would absolutely come unglued if a team with a 70's rpi got in the tourney ahead of a P5 school with a losing record in their conference, but an rpi in the 50's.

Maybe the Shox could work their rpi into the 60's range, but the same thing would still happen.

No. Just no.

2016-2017 WSU (29-5) (Estimated assuming win next 14 then lose to ISUr in Finals)
RPI - low 30s
KP - 20s

Even with one more regular season loss and then a loss in the finals, the Shox would have a top 50 RPI.

[Play Angry]

So far so good today.

OU leading Iowa State 28-13 w/6 minutes in the half.

Tulsa winning 56-48 @ South Florida w/8 minutes left in the game.

[Play Angry]

Tulsa won.

OU with a bad home loss after sprinting out to a huge early lead.

[Dave Stalwart]

Always nice to see CU lose. Although the circumstances are unfortunate. It will be interesting to see how they do going forward.