2016-17 Bracketology

[Speak2me]

Having a beer with friends last night and we tossed out subjective thoughts on making the dance based on various win/loss scenarios this weekend. Obviously we are rooting for the Shockers to blast through the weekend. However, this tournament has given us fits for several decades. Here is what we came up with:

1. Win the MVC tournament - 100%
2. Lose the MVC tournament in the final round to Illinois St - 85% chance we dance with an at large bid
3. Lose the MVC tournament in the final round to a team other than Illinois St - 70% chance we dance. We may have picked up a bad loss here.
4. Lose in 3rd round to UNI/Mo State - 60-65% chance we dance
5. Lose in 2nd round to Bradley/Drake - Less than 50% chance we dance. Picked up a bad loss late.

Do you think we are in the ballpark here or too optimistic/pessimistic?

[Zubcut]

I heard a West Coast radio interview with Palm that gave a good insight to his perverse view of strength of schedule. He was asked why UCLA was seeded so much lower in his bracketology than their ranking and computer numbers would indicate. UCLA's record was 25-3 at the time. Palm said it was because of their weak non conference schedule. He said that, for example, USC had a much tougher non con schedule than UCLA. Here were USC's toughest non-con games: SMU, BYU, @Texas A&M, Omaha and Wyoming. UCLA's toughest non-con games were: @Kentucky:, Michigan, Nebraska, Texas A&M and Ohio State. The hosts were incredulous and asked Palm how anyone could possibly look at that and say USC's schedule was tougher. Palm's response was "You can't just look at the toughest games. You have to look at the overall schedule." USC's overall non-con schedule WAS technically more difficult overall, only because of all the terrible teams each played, USC's were less terrible. Thus their overall non-con schedule would be seen as harder. These are all teams that both USC and UCLA's second string would beat by 20 points. Palm looks only at the raw SOS numbers and he can't understand how any rational person would look at those schedules and think that UCLA had a harder non-con than USC. After the interview the hosts thereafter referred to him as Jerry Palm to the Forehead.

[XManCometh]

Having a beer with friends last night and we tossed out subjective thoughts on making the dance based on various win/loss scenarios this weekend. Obviously we are rooting for the Shockers to blast through the weekend. However, this tournament has given us fits for several decades. Here is what we came up with:

1. Win the MVC tournament - 100%
2. Lose the MVC tournament in the final round to Illinois St - 85% chance we dance with an at large bid
3. Lose the MVC tournament in the final round to a team other than Illinois St - 70% chance we dance. We may have picked up a bad loss here.
4. Lose in 3rd round to UNI/Mo State - 60-65% chance we dance
5. Lose in 2nd round to Bradley/Drake - Less than 50% chance we dance. Picked up a bad loss late.

Do you think we are in the ballpark here or too optimistic/pessimistic?

I think anything other than an auto bid or losing the MVC title to IllSU is going to put us in the NIT.

But, we're going to absolutely demolish everyone in STL so this all won't matter.

[ShockerFever]

I heard a West Coast radio interview with Palm that gave a good insight to his perverse view of strength of schedule. He was asked why UCLA was seeded so much lower in his bracketology than their ranking and computer numbers would indicate. UCLA's record was 25-3 at the time. Palm said it was because of their weak non conference schedule. He said that, for example, USC had a much tougher non con schedule than UCLA. Here were USC's toughest non-con games: SMU, BYU, @Texas A&M, Omaha and Wyoming. UCLA's toughest non-con games were: @Kentucky:, Michigan, Nebraska, Texas A&M and Ohio State. The hosts were incredulous and asked Palm how anyone could possibly look at that and say USC's schedule was tougher. Palm's response was "You can't just look at the toughest games. You have to look at the overall schedule." USC's overall non-con schedule WAS technically more difficult overall, only because of all the terrible teams each played, USC's were less terrible. Thus their overall non-con schedule would be seen as harder. These are all teams that both USC and UCLA's second string would beat by 20 points. Palm looks only at the raw SOS numbers and he can't understand how any rational person would look at those schedules and think that UCLA had a harder non-con than USC. After the interview the hosts thereafter referred to him as Jerry Palm to the Forehead.

Palm simply looks at numbers, in this case, ONE set of numbers to decide his field.

And that's why he's an idiot.

[AndShock]

I think anything other than an auto bid or losing the MVC title to IllSU is going to put us in the NIT.

But, we're going to absolutely demolish everyone in STL so this all won't matter.

The only thing that worries me about STL is that all of my memories of WSU playing in STL consist of us throwing up brick after brick after brick. Shaq and Darryl should be able to carry us if Landry and Conner are off, but those bad memories are tough to ignore.

[Shocktoberfest]

I think anything other than an auto bid or losing the MVC title to IllSU is going to put us in the NIT.

But, we're going to absolutely demolish everyone in STL so this all won't matter.

Disagree strongly about the first comment. We are more strongly in than that. Lose Friday and it's nail biting time. Otherwise, I'll sleep well.

[Shockers5150]

Shox are in, unless they sink it up Friday, which they won't. They're getting those nets.

[WheatShock]

Disagree strongly about the first comment. We are more strongly in than that. Lose Friday and it's nail biting time. Otherwise, I'll sleep well.

I'll still feel pretty comfortable if we lose to ISUr on Sunday. Losing to anyone else no matter what day will be considered a bad loss. The biggest positive on our resume is that we don't have any bad losses, if that changes it gives the committee a convenient excuse to leave us out.

[Dave Stalwart]

If we are capable of losing to Drake, Bradley, Mo State or UNI (that's our entire bracket) at any point this weekend, I don't even WANT to play in the dance because we will get owned. Put us in the CIT because that's the only tournament we would be worthy of, given the RPI's of all these Valley teams.

Bottom line, Shocks will not lose to these teams at this point in the season. If we do, we don't deserve to be in. All 4 of these games would be 20+ point wins. Illinois State is the team that needs to be sweating St. Louis because they have to face teams they've really struggled with VERY recently...

[WheatShock]

If we are capable of losing to Drake, Bradley, Mo State or UNI (that's our entire bracket) at any point this weekend, I don't even WANT to play in the dance because we will get owned. Put us in the CIT because that's the only tournament we would be worthy of, given the RPI's of all these Valley teams.

Bottom line, Shocks will not lose to these teams at this point in the season. If we do, we don't deserve to be in. All 4 of these games would be 20+ point wins. Illinois State is the team that needs to be sweating St. Louis because they have to face teams they've really struggled with VERY recently...

I don't think we'll lose before Sunday but lets not get too overconfident. Just last month we were challenged by the likes of Evansville, Drake, and Bradley on the road. It only takes one bad game for us and an opponent playing out of their mind to sink us. We've seen it before.

[ShockingButTrue]

I don't think we'll lose before Sunday but lets not get too overconfident. Just last month we were challenged by the likes of Evansville, Drake, and Bradley on the road. It only takes one bad game for us and an opponent playing out of their mind to sink us. We've seen it before.

That's a fact.

[Shoxfan11]

I don't think we'll lose before Sunday but lets not get too overconfident. Just last month we were challenged by the likes of Evansville, Drake, and Bradley on the road. It only takes one bad game for us and an opponent playing out of their mind to sink us. We've seen it before.

I know this team has been on a tear recently, but I've seen wayyy too many strange things happen in STL to ever be super confident about our chances there. You can even look at last year, the team that dominated Vanderbilt and Arizona in the big dance barely slipped by Loyola in the Valley tournament. Winning the tournament is never an easy task

[HenryMuto]

How can Palm have a job ? He has Georgia ahead of Wichita State in the pecking order. WTF

[Dan]

I honestly don't think there's a team in the conference that can beat us right now. We have the best offense I've seen in 20 years. In past tournaments, all it took was an off night by a couple key guys and we were sunk. We have too many weapons this year. i hate to jinx it, but this team is rolling.

[wichshock65]

Bubble teams playing tonight:

Auburn at Georgia (RPI: 52, KenPom: 52, next four out), 5:30 p.m.

Arkansas (RPI: 28, KenPom: 44, No. 9 seed) at No. 12 Florida, 6:00 p.m.

Michigan at Northwestern (RPI: 50, KenPom: 37, No. 9 seed), 6:00 p.m.

Rhode Island (RPI: 41, KenPom: 53, play-in game) at Saint Joseph’s, 6:00 p.m.

VCU (RPI: , KenPom: 46, No. 9 seed) at Dayton, 7:00 p.m.

No. 8 Louisville at Wake Forest (RPI: 45, KenPom: 33, first four out), 8:00 p.m.

Kansas State (RPI: 67, KenPom: 36, first four out) at TCU (RPI: 58, KenPom: 41, next four out), 8:00 p.m.

Michigan State at Illinois (RPI: 56, KenPom: 64, first four out), 8:00 p.m.

Marquette (RPI: 69, KenPom: 32, No. 10 seed) at Xavier (RPI: 26, KenPom: 40, No. 10 seed), 8:00 p.m.

Washington State at USC (RPI: 38, KenPom: 67, play-in game), 9:00 p.m.