2016-17 Bracketology

[ShockTalk]

More and more we move a power conference tournament.

Four years ago a midmajor could get a number 1 seed with 2 losses. Now, only if they go undefeated.
We've gone from 10, to 7, to 6, to 4 midmajor at-large bids.
Midmajors have gone from competing for 2-4 seeds to competing for 7-11 seeds at best.

How many more years till no mid-major can even earn an at-large bid? How many years till even an undefeated mid-major team gets a 2 or 3 seed? How many years till a power conference team sneaks into the tournament with 15, 16 losses and a sub .500 record?

Unfortunately, this doesn't just apply to the MVC. The same bias would affect us in the AAC or MWC or A10. But the MVC will sink first, and we can't afford to be on that ship. It might be this year, it might be next year, it might be the year after that, but eventually no team from this conference will be able to earn an at-large bid, solely due to being in the conference.

Not disagreeing, but this year, the non-P5 + BE conferences are weaker than usual. It wasn't that many years ago that the MWC was the #1 rated RPI conference yet this year, they do not have one at-large worthy team. The Valley has only 2 teams better than 150. AAC has only 2 at-large worthy teams with UConn, Memphis, Temple, and Tulsa all 100+ RPIs. Atl-10 only 2 with RI a maybe, but no Richmond, George Mason, Davidson, George Washington, or St. Joe's. The WCC still has the Zags and St. Mary's, but no BYU. Either a lot of quality programs are down and/or the conferences are so weak that they hurt much more than help their top teams.

Just where are these at-large teams suppose to come from if not these conferences?

We talk about WSU's bad luck with our non-con schedule. It looked like it should be solid, but it wasn't. This good luck / bad luck affected others schools as well. Who would have thought that Vermont would get you a Top 50 game, most likely at home. Well, Providence, South Carolina, and Butler all got them at home for a win. Butler also managed to catch Northwestern (#50) and Bucknell (#77) at home with a down Utah away and a down Indiana neutral all for wins.

I think the best teams from these conferences need to stay away from more than one 200+ game even if it means fewer home games by having H/H with more teams that will probably guarantee them a top 150, if not top 100 games each year. Where would we be right now if the 5 schools we played in non-con were not between 200-300, but 50-150. Most likely all wins, just not 30 point wins, but 5-15 points wins.

[CBB_Fan]

Not disagreeing, but this year, the non-P5 + BE conferences are weaker than usual. It wasn't that many years ago that the MWC was the #1 rated RPI conference yet this year, they do not have one at-large worthy team. The Valley has only 2 teams better than 150. AAC has only 2 at-large worthy teams with UConn, Memphis, Temple, and Tulsa all 100+ RPIs. Atl-10 only 2 with RI a maybe, but no Richmond, George Mason, Davidson, George Washington, or St. Joe's. The WCC still has the Zags and St. Mary's, but no BYU. Either a lot of quality programs are down and/or the conferences are so weak that they hurt much more than help their top teams.

Just where are these at-large teams suppose to come from if not these conferences?

RPI doesn't seem to stop Syracuse from being a contender.

We talk about WSU's bad luck with our non-con schedule. It looked like it should be solid, but it wasn't. This good luck / bad luck affected others schools as well. Who would have thought that Vermont would get you a Top 50 game, most likely at home. Well, Providence, South Carolina, and Butler all got them at home for a win. Butler also managed to catch Northwestern (#50) and Bucknell (#77) at home with a down Utah away and a down Indiana neutral all for wins.

I think the best teams from these conferences need to stay away from more than one 200+ game even if it means fewer home games by having H/H with more teams that will probably guarantee them a top 150, if not top 100 games each year. Where would we be right now if the 5 schools we played in non-con were not between 200-300, but 50-150. Most likely all wins, just not 30 point wins, but 5-15 points wins.

The problem is each year the bar rises for mid-majors. We say the conferences are terrible, but look at the P5 teams that are supposed to get in. Marquette, RPI 72. It is literally impossible for a mid-major to get a bid with that low of an RPI, Illinois State will struggle in the 30s. Wake Forest, 0-7 in top 25 games. If that were Wichita State, we'd have a label "Unable to perform." TCU, 6-10 in the Big 12.

So where are the teams supposed to come from? The following teams outside the P5 + BE have top 60 RPIs:

13 Cincinnati, 16 Saint Mary's, 21 Dayton, 30 Illinois State, 34 UNC Wilmington, 37 UT Arlington, 38 Middle Tennessee, 39 Wichita State, 40 Nevada, 41 Monmouth, 44 Rhode Island, 46 Vermont, 52 Houston, 53 Princeton, 55 Akron, 58 Valparaiso, 59 Boise State

All of those should get in (should they lose their conference tournament) over a team like TCU, Marquette, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Georgia, Kansas State, Illinois, Clemson, Tennessee, Texas Tech, or Providence.

The narrative that all the "other" conferences got weaker is a constructed one. Yeah, we aren't seeing 4 tournament quality teams from the MWC or MVC, but there has been a deliberate effort to discredit the mid-major teams at or near the top of their conferences. There is a distinct difference between the way a 34 RPI mid-major and a 34 RPI P5 team are viewed, and that is no accident. In the past team's like Monmouth or Vermont would have been viewed more positively and teams like TCU or Clemson wouldn't have been bubble contenders.

[AZ Shocker]

The problem is each year the bar rises for mid-majors. We say the conferences are terrible, but look at the P5 teams that are supposed to get in. Marquette, RPI 72. It is literally impossible for a mid-major to get a bid with that low of an RPI, Illinois State will struggle in the 30s. Wake Forest, 0-7 in top 25 games. If that were Wichita State, we'd have a label "Unable to perform." TCU, 6-10 in the Big 12.

So where are the teams supposed to come from? The following teams outside the P5 + BE have top 60 RPIs:

13 Cincinnati, 16 Saint Mary's, 21 Dayton, 30 Illinois State, 34 UNC Wilmington, 37 UT Arlington, 38 Middle Tennessee, 39 Wichita State, 40 Nevada, 41 Monmouth, 44 Rhode Island, 46 Vermont, 52 Houston, 53 Princeton, 55 Akron, 58 Valparaiso, 59 Boise State

All of those should get in (should they lose their conference tournament) over a team like TCU, Marquette, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Georgia, Kansas State, Illinois, Clemson, Tennessee, Texas Tech, or Providence.

The narrative that all the "other" conferences got weaker is a constructed one. Yeah, we aren't seeing 4 tournament quality teams from the MWC or MVC, but there has been a deliberate effort to discredit the mid-major teams at or near the top of their conferences. There is a distinct difference between the way a 34 RPI mid-major and a 34 RPI P5 team are viewed, and that is no accident. In the past team's like Monmouth or Vermont would have been viewed more positively and teams like TCU or Clemson wouldn't have been bubble contenders.

Good stuff right there!

[Shocker1976]

I just started my own Bracketology site. Check it out and give me feedback, I have the Shox as a 9 seed.
https://brentsbrackets.wordpress.com

Interesting that you seeded Gonzaga a 3; first loss all season and they only qualify for a 3 seed.

IMO good work with your bracket; other than a few nit-picking comments, of course.

[Shocker1976]

College basketball will be hard to follow (like college football) if this continues.

My enthusiasm for college basketball has already suffered and if the P5/CBS/ESPN perform as I think they will in the next 5 years, college basketball will not be a sport I follow.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

At this point...I'm actually hoping that if God forbid we don't win St. Elgin that the stoopid committee (or what they really are) doesn't invite us...shows its "true colors" and makes an example.

That way...we can all see it as it what is made to be. Dollars. Eliticism. Left liberals controlling the media.....(Palm you f####r)

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

If WSU and Calipari are in the same regional, you may hear it from him, especially if it leads to a premature matchup. Sean Miller probably doesn't want to the see the Shocks anytime soon, either.

Neither does the local Laundromat.

EDIT: I see I'm like the 4th person to make this joke. Oh well, its a good joke. Never gets old.

[T.VuOP]

You think the extra bids would go to non-P5s? Think again.

This involves only bubble teams. We can hope 4 from non-P5s would be invited each year. The 4 play-in teams last year included WSU and Tulsa, 2015 included BYU, Boise State, Dayton

[T.VuOP]

BTW, I like Joe Lunardi newest bracket: 1. KU, 8. WSU, 4. Duke (I wish it's Louisville), and 2. Kentucky

[KraRam]

BTW, I like Joe Lunardi newest bracket: 1. KU, 8. WSU, 4. Duke (I wish it's Louisville), and 2. Kentucky

Has potential to be the WSU Payback bracket; MSU, Ku, Duke (just because) OSt or Kentucky...3G would have so much to motivate with!

[The Cat]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/242

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

ISUr's KenPom went from 52 to 45 with that beat down at UNI. With their solid RPI, and now a top 50 KenPom, they will have a strong case on selection sunday.

That said, their fans have reason to be nervous. The committee could still give them the shaft.

Shocker fans can relax unless you think Bradley or Drake is going to send WSU home on Friday.

[ROOT ANGRY!]

ISUr's KenPom went from 52 to 45 with that beat down at UNI. With their solid RPI, and now a top 50 KenPom, they will have a strong case on selection sunday.

That said, their fans have reason to be nervous. The committee could still give them the shaft.

Shocker fans can relax unless you think Bradley or Drake is going to send WSU home on Friday.

Illinois State just needs a quality loss on Sunday and they're in.

[Stickboy46]

WSU is in 96 of 98 Brackets as of Yesterday Morning on BracketMatrix. https://sportsentiment.com/ and Jerry Palm were the only 2 that had them out. As of yesterday afternoon, sportsentiment moved WSU into their field. That means Jerry Palm is literally the only Bracketoligist in the world that doesn't think WSU will make it ....

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Jerry has K-State (even after the 30 point loss to OU) still closer to the bubble than WSU.

K-State
lost 7 of last 9 games
6-10 in Big 12 play and projected to finish 7-11.
RPI - 69 (29 spots behind WSU)
KenPom - 37 (27 spots behind WSU)