2016-17 Bracketology

[SHOCKvalue]

All of this conversation is just an illustration as to why breaking up wins and losses into hard-and-fast 50 spot chunks is so asinine. We stand a realistic chance of ultimately being 7-4 against the RPI top 131 (as of today), but the national narrative could ultimately be "ZOMG, WSU is only 2-4 against the RPI top 100."

So, so intellectually dumb. Doubly so, when all of this is predicated on a metric as crappy as RPI.

[SHOCKvalue]

You have to include Arkansas after their quality loss to Missouri

My gosh... forgot about that fecal nugget.

[WuDrWu]

Palm must have really hated himself after his last update. We are no longer in the first four out.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

3 of the 4 in the first four in category lost last week at least once too.

Michigan States 11 point win over Iowa was apparently enough to counteract their 29 point loss to Michigan and move up a seed line.

PROVIDENCE???!!!! Any time you lose to DePaul you're out of the tourney. Maybe it was that big win over Brown or their 0-2 road game non-con record against 2 teams that won't sniff the dance. I guess 1 home win over Butler is enough to overcome losing to St. John's AND DePaul AND Boston College if you can mix in 6 more quality losses and 2 more average losses.


I guess WSU just hasn't learned to trick the system. We're simply not losing enough.

[WuDrWu]

Pitt, Arkansas and Ole Miss? You have to be kidding....

Pitt is 3-9 in the ACC. Ole Miss is 6-6 in the tough and rugged SEC. Wow, I'm starting to think he does it just to spite us.

Plus Pitt is fresh off ending an epic 8 game losing streak. Again, we're just not losing enough apparently.

[SHOCKvalue]

Kenpom/RPI rankings:

Pitt - 66/54
Providence - 60/68
Arkansas - 57/43
Ole Miss - 69/59

WSU - 16/48

Makes sense.

[ShockerFever]

I'm pretty sure we have a regular, average guy poster on SN who is included in the bracketmatrix, although I can't specifically remember who it is right at the moment.

AndShock

[ShockerFever]

All 8 of NaPalm's Last 4 in/First 4 out are hilariously garbage. I mean Rhode Island is honestly the only reasonable candidate. But I would just love to see his logic behind any one of those teams up against a WSU.

If his logic is solely based on Top 50 win quantities, than a non P-5 on the bubble will never receive another at-large bid again.

[WuShock Reaper]

Palm must have really hated himself after his last update. We are no longer in the first four out.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

3 of the 4 in the first four in category lost last week at least once too.

Michigan States 11 point win over Iowa was apparently enough to counteract their 29 point loss to Michigan and move up a seed line.

Here is Palm's Bracket with a comparison to AP Votes (points) this week (02/13/17). Can someone please tell me the commonality among those teams?

Team Name, Palm Seed, AP Votes (points)
USC, 6-seed, (16 points)
Minnesota, 7-seed, (0 points)
Xavier, 7-seed, (72 points)
Northwestern, 7-seed, (60 points)
California, 8-seed, (0 points)
Virginia Tech, 8-seed, (0 points)
Dayton, 8-seed, (4 points)
Iowa State, 9-seed, (0 points)
Miami (FL), 9-seed, (0 points)
VCU, 9-seed, (14 points)
Oklahoma State, 9-seed, (1 points)
Kansas State, 10-seed, (0 points)
Michigan, 10-seed, (0 points)
Michigan State, 10-seed, (0 points)
TCU, 10-seed, (0 points)
Georgia Tech, 11-seed, (0 points)
Providence. 11-seed, (0 points)
Seton Hall, 11-seed, (0 points)
Syracuse, 11-seed, (0 points)
Wake Forest, 11-seed, (0 points)
Middle Tenn., 11-seed, (3 points)
Monmouth, 13-seed, (2 points)
Vermont, 13-seed, (1 point)
Arkansas, First Four Out, (0 points)
Mississippi, First Four Out, (0 points)
Pittsburgh, First Four Out, (0 points)
Rhode Island, First Four Out, (0 points)
Wichita State, Not Even Mentioned (87 points)

[ShockerFever]

I'm still perplexed how TCU is safely in as a 10 seed in his bracket. A home win over Illinois State and a road win at KSU are their only Top 50 wins. 6-6 in conference. 15 of their 24 games have been played at home. So much weak there.

[WSUwatcher]

I say it every year, but I'd rather be an 11 or 12 seed, then a 7-10. Avoid the top 2 seeds as long as possible. As an 11 seed you'd 6 seed in the first round, then more than likely a 3 in the second round, whereas with a 8 seed you get a 9 seed in the first round, then a 1. I'd personally prefer the 11 seed route.

Agreed, hook -- I've shared that view for years. If you can't make it all the way up to 6th, there's much to be said for 11th -- so long as it isn't 11th in the First Four where you run the risk of getting an unreasonably burdensome travel schedule like what WSU was saddled with last year. I think the NCAA had Jerry Palm making out the travel arrangements and schedules for the teams in Dayton last March.

Still, as others have noted, the Shocks have actually had more success against the #1s and #2s than against the #3s, so I guess I really don't care that much what the number is, so long as there IS a number and it doesn't lead to Dayton.

[WuShock Reaper]

"Bracketology: Weak schedules hurting Kentucky, UCLA and Gonzaga" - CBS Sports

(The NCAA is clearly putting a lot of weight on a team's strength of schedule)

by Jerry Palm
02/13/17, 11:00am EST

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/bracketology-weak-schedules-hurting-kentucky-ucla-and-gonzaga/

"...Specifically, if you are a Wichita State fan, Saturday was not a good day for you at all. The Shockers' overall (162) and non-conference strength of schedule (205) are both relatively poor and unlikely to get better. That slim chance for an at-large bid got slimmer. The at-large quality team in the bracket with the lowest SOS is UCLA at 104 (which includes their conference metrics too)...."

Here are a few other NC-SOC's, based on Nolan Warren Website:

Wichita State, Not even Mentioned, (205 NC-SOS)
Wisconsin, 5-seed (218 NC-SOS)
West Virginia, 3-seed (238 NC-SOS)
Kansas State, 10-seed, (239 NC-SOS)
Georgia Tech, 11-seed, (249 NC-SOS)
UCLA, 4-seed (252 NC-SOS)
Miami (FL), 9-seed, (262 NC-SOS)
Virginia Tech, 8-seed (289 NC-SOS)


My point is that there should be consistency in his position. He is entitled to his opinion and can use what every criteria he wants when he publish's his bracket, but to imply we have the worse SOS, then highlights our NC-SOS (non-conference Strength Of Schedule) to prove his point is just poor journalism in my opinion. It's just not factual correct.

[SHOCKvalue]

The criteria for excluding non-P5's is a moving target every year it seems, with the variation owing to whatever best justifies the overarching action.

[Stickboy46]

"Bracketology: Weak schedules hurting Kentucky, UCLA and Gonzaga" - CBS Sports

(The NCAA is clearly putting a lot of weight on a team's strength of schedule)

by Jerry Palm
02/13/17, 11:00am EST

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/bracketology-weak-schedules-hurting-kentucky-ucla-and-gonzaga/

"...Specifically, if you are a Wichita State fan, Saturday was not a good day for you at all. The Shockers' overall (162) and non-conference strength of schedule (205) are both relatively poor and unlikely to get better. That slim chance for an at-large bid got slimmer. The at-large quality team in the bracket with the lowest SOS is UCLA at 104 (which includes their conference metrics too)...."

Here are a few other NC-SOC's, based on Nolan Warren Website:

Wichita State, Not even Mentioned, (205 NC-SOS)
Wisconsin, 5-seed (218 NC-SOS)
West Virginia, 3-seed (238 NC-SOS)
Kansas State, 10-seed, (239 NC-SOS)
Georgia Tech, 11-seed, (249 NC-SOS)
UCLA, 4-seed (252 NC-SOS)
Miami (FL), 9-seed, (262 NC-SOS)
Virginia Tech, 8-seed (289 NC-SOS)


My point is that there should be consistency in his position. He is entitled to his opinion and can use what every criteria he wants when he publish's his bracket, but to imply we have the worse SOS, then highlights our NC-SOS (non-conference Strength Of Schedule) to prove his point is just poor journalism in my opinion. It's just not factual correct.

The fact that he has specifically called out WSU twice now says alot. He really doesn't want them to be in and is actively campaigning in case someone on the committee is reading his junk.

[AZ Shocker]

The fact that he has specifically called out WSU twice now says alot. He really doesn't want them to be in and is actively campaigning in case someone on the committee is reading his junk.

Yep. Plus his title for the article sounds so very mischievous...but of course fits his and possibly CBS narrative should the Shockers not win the Valley Tourney. I mean really??? Read the title again. Like Kentucky, UCLA and the Zags are stressing. Nice try Jerry...

[WuShock Reaper]

"Bracketology: The projected bracket and the month remaining" - Fansided

by Lukas Harkins
02/13/17, 11:00am CST

http://bustingbrackets.com/2017/02/13/bracketology-the-projected-bracket-and-the-month-remaining/

"...The bubble is about as big as it can get, which could lead to plenty of popped bubbles in the near future. Many teams are right on the cut line and there are only so many spots that teams can take up. Obviously, teams in conferences like the ACC have the most chances to add signature wins, but some mid-majors have the chance to take advantage of falling bubble teams.

For example, the Illinois State Redbirds and the Wichita State Shockers of the Missouri Valley Conference could spend the next few weeks shooting up the seed list. At this point in the year, signature wins seriously help, but with bubble teams dropping like flies, just getting wins are sometimes the most important thing...."

Wichita State 9 seed versus 8 seed USC

Illinois State is 11 seed in the play-in game against 11 seed Marquette