2016-17 Bracketology

[WuShock16]

KState should be eliminated from the conversation for an at large. Dean Wade, transfer to Wichita.

I just texted a buddy about this earlier tonight. He could pay his own way next year and be ready to go for the 2018-19 season.

Let it be said...let it be done.

[WuDrWu]

2/23/17 Update

(UNC) Duke, Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida State, Miami, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech (Wake and GT on life support. Would have to win 3 straight to be talked about)

(Kansas) Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma State. (KSU, TCU and TT all outside looking in now. Plus a couple of elimination games between these 3)

(Villanova) Creighton, Xavier, Butler, Marquette. (Seton Hall and Providence now in the mix, barely. Oh, and Cu better not lose to St. John's at home next week)

(Wisconsin) Maryland, Purdue, Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan State, Michigan. (Can't see Michigan and Northwestern both getting in, schedule wise, but I'll leave them in here for now. Illinois could win their last 3 and get into the mix)

(Arizona) Oregon, UCLA, USC (Utah and Cal both behind WSU. Cal had ZERO road non-con games. Best win? Wyoming? All they have to hang their hat on is a great road win @ USC offset by losses to SDSU and Stanford and 7 other high quality losses. Even if you say "well beating Arizona State, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, Colorado etc is better than the Valley fodder (maybe, but ok)" you know they can't beat the good teams. Give a team like WSU at least the chance, since they don't have the bad losses that Cal has. Also, Cal still plays Utah in a de facto elimination game.

(Florida) Kentucky, South Carolina, Arkansas. (I suppose Alabama could finish 5-0 but so?)

(Gonzaga) St. Mary's. Both clearly ahead of WSU.

(Cincinnati) SMU (Houston not getting in ahead of WSU)

(VCU) Dayton (Same with Dayton)

(UNC-Wilmington - lost to Middle Tennessee and just can't have 3 league losses) (Middle Tennessee - man they have 3 bad losses to Tenn State, Georgia State and an awful loss to UTEP) I think you have to look at Monmouth. 2 points at South Carolina and I think they are in. Belmont -a faint pulse but that loss to Tenn Tech is a killer and losses to other hopefuls Vandy, Rhode Island and Middle Tennessee kills them.

31 teams ahead of WSU.

Vermont (25-5) is WSU extra light. No quality wins and losses to bubble hopefuls Providence and Houston, good losses to Butler and South Carolina and a rough one (if you want an at large) against Northeastern.
Rhode Island has 1 great win (Cin), a good win against Belmont and a quality loss to Duke, but also bubble hopefuls Providence, Houston and Valpo and bad losses to LaSalle and Fordham. Even a sweep of VCU, Davidson and St. Joes doesn't get them past WSU.

Akron and Valpo, sorry, you're done.

Let's be fair and compare WSU and Kstate.

Non con both played St Louis (WSU home Kstate away) and Colorado State (WSU away KSU neutral/away) with similar results. The rest of the schedule favors WSU but the Shocks lost 1 more of those tougher games. Clearly the B12 is tougher than the Valley. WSU has run though theirs, splitting with quality ISU, KSU has been up and down, losing to TCU and TT but winning @ Baylor, @ OSU and WVU but have lost 7 of 9. They have @ OU, @ TCU and TT. They can't lose one and get in if only because the other team(s) will claim they belong in before KSU. Win all 3 and it's close, but I think KSU would be in but TCU and TT definitely out.

Perhaps Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and others (not many) can sweep the last 3 or 4 and get in, but doing so is going to knock out some rivals too. Seton Hall and Providence sweeping their last 3 (possible if not probable) would be problematic. Both make a good case, SH more so than PC in that scenario.

I can see 2, maybe as many as 4 teams passing WSU in a worst case scenario but when you check schedules and then assume they lose a game in their tourneys, everyone else just doesn't hold up to WSU. WSU must still win Saturday. Losing 2 games this late against marginal competition would be awful and we'd need TONS of help.

2/25 update. I'm bored, sue me.

(UNC) Florida State, Louisville, Notre Dame, Duke, Miami, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Syracuse. Syracuse is a bit iffy, but for the purposes here, I include them. We're finally done with the laughable inclusion of Pitt and Clemson, and unless GT beats ND and Wake beats Louisville, those 2 are done as well.

(Kansas) Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma State. TCU, KSU and TT are all outside looking in. Plus they all play each other. NO WAY more than 1 gets in, IF one gets in (barring a surprise B12 Tourney run).

(Villanova) Creighton, Xavier, Butler, Marquette. Seton Hall and Providence I'm going to add. These 2 and Marquette need to go 1-1 at least in their final 2 games.

(Purdue) Wisconsin, Maryland, Minnesota, Michigan State, Michigan, Northwestern. Northwestern is barely hanging on but they better win one of the last 2 and both are tough. Sadly, people will talk about Iowa (ugh) and Illinois, but they're not there, at least not yet.

(Arizona) Oregon, UCLA, USC Cal is behind WSU and has little to offer and they better beat Utah. Utah is dead.

(Kentucky) Florida, South Carolina, Arkansas. Ole Miss could win their last 2 and be talked about but no. Alabama, Jerry? lol Vandy has to win 1 of the last 2 to even be talked about, and probably both, and they're at UK and host Florida.

(Gonzaga) St. Mary's. Both clearly ahead of WSU.

(Cincinnati) SMU (Houston not getting in ahead of WSU)

(VCU) Dayton Dayton survived Friday night. URI back in the discussion after beating VCU.

(UNC-Wilmington - lost to Middle Tennessee and just can't have 3 league losses) (Middle Tennessee - man they have 3 bad losses to Tenn State, Georgia State and an awful loss to UTEP) I think you have to look at Monmouth. 2 points at South Carolina and I think they are in. Belmont -a faint pulse but that loss to Tenn Tech is a killer and losses to other hopefuls Vandy, Rhode Island and Middle Tennessee kills them.

Vermont (25-5) is WSU extra light. No quality wins and losses to bubble hopefuls Providence and Houston, good losses to Butler and South Carolina and a rough one (if you want an at large) against Northeastern.

It's just sad that there's so much inequity with scheduling. WSU is clearly one of the best 36 at large teams. But if they lose in St Louis, it's going to be close. And it's ridiculous.

[Kel Varnsen]

It's just sad that there's so much inequity with scheduling. WSU is clearly one of the best 36 at large teams. But if they lose in St Louis, it's going to be close. And it's ridiculous.

P5 schools have realized they can game the RPI by scheduling each other at neutral sites. That's probably one of the biggest reasons for the lack of mid-major at-large contenders.

[Cdizzle]

P5 schools have realized they can game the RPI by scheduling each other at neutral sites. That's probably one of the biggest reasons for the lack of mid-major at-large contenders.

They didn't realize this. ESPN did. And ESPN scheduled the games for them, put them in prime-time, and paid them cash to do it. It's not even gaming the RPI. It's creating no-lose games. Teams get credit with a great win if they win, but the loss never counts against them.

[ShockerFever]

Jerry Palm just updated his last 4 in/first 4 out on CBS Sports' tv show.

WSU has managed to slip from the 2nd team out to now the 4th team out. This after a 19 point win on the road to clinch a 4th straight Valley title at 27-4 and 17-1.

I kid you not, WSU is now getting in worse position by winning their games by 20.

This nutjob is hoping and praying for a WSU loss to justify his personal vendetta. But they keep winning and he keeps knocking them anyway. Seth Davis just sliced him up and is now mocking him. "Far me to disagree with the great Jerry Palm".. I lol'ed. Seth said there is NO way WSU is being left out with the type of metrics they bring.

[Cdizzle]

Katz just said straight up "Losses don't matter any more, new rules"

[WSUwatcher]

...ESPN scheduled the games for them, put them in prime-time, and paid them cash to do it. It's not even gaming the RPI. It's creating no-lose games. Teams get credit with a great win if they win, but the loss never counts against them.

Didn't ESPN try to set up a TV money game between WSU and the Jailhawks in KC a while back, only to have The Flagship run away in fright?

The outsiders like WSU -- deplorables, one might say, to the power conference fat cats -- need two things: someone to try to set up a TV money games, and a power conference opponent with the manhood and competitive spirit to say yes when such a game is offered. By contrast, for the power conference insiders to play each other somewhere, all it takes is a network willing to televise and pay for the game. The acceptance is a foregone conclusion.

[HenryMuto]

Jerry Palm just updated his last 4 in/first 4 out on CBS Sports' tv show.

WSU has managed to slip from the 2nd team out to now the 4th team out. This after a 19 point win on the road to clinch a 4th straight Valley title at 27-4 and 17-1.

I kid you not, WSU is now getting in worse position by winning their games by 20.

This nutjob is hoping and praying for a WSU loss to justify his personal vendetta. But they keep winning and he keeps knocking them anyway. Seth Davis just sliced him up and is now mocking him. "Far me to disagree with the great Jerry Palm".. I lol'ed. Seth said there is NO way WSU is being left out with the type of metrics they bring.

I posted this on Palm's bracket just now on CBS site.

"Wichita State now ranked 10th in Kenpom and all these bubble teams stumbling and bumbling their way to losses yet Palm going to say Wichita State is still out.
Last year Palm said Wichita State was out for sure all week after their loss in the MVC semis then finally on the final weekend he put them in when he realized he was wrong if there wasn't the fact everyone was telling him he was wrong he would never done it.
This year Palm is hoping they just win the MVC title so he doesn't end up having to look the fool again and having to put them in after they lose on Selection weekend because there is no chance they get left out of this terrible bubble field when your 10th in kenpom right now and you are winning like they are every game I don't care that they are 1-4 vs RPI top 50."

[HenryMuto]

Katz just said straight up "Losses don't matter any more, new rules"

I heard that as well what a stupid comment. Everyone is saying Vandy is in if they split their next 2 vs Kentucky and Florida. If they split their next 2 they will be 17-14 entering SEC tournament which means they will have to end up with 15 losses if they are going to be an at large team and no team has ever got at large bid with 15 losses. Now I know there is 68 team field only for last 5 years or whatever it has been and I guess someday someone will crack the code with 15 losses but Vandy is that team ? I would think it be an ACC team if that happened. Hell people keep saying Clemson is still on bubble with an absurd 4-12 conf record because I guess conf record is meaningless.

[Stickboy46]

I posted this on Palm's bracket just now on CBS site.

"Wichita State now ranked 10th in Kenpom and all these bubble teams stumbling and bumbling their way to losses yet Palm going to say Wichita State is still out.
Last year Palm said Wichita State was out for sure all week after their loss in the MVC semis then finally on the final weekend he put them in when he realized he was wrong if there wasn't the fact everyone was telling him he was wrong he would never done it.
This year Palm is hoping they just win the MVC title so he doesn't end up having to look the fool again and having to put them in after they lose on Selection weekend because there is no chance they get left out of this terrible bubble field when your 10th in kenpom right now and you are winning like they are every game I don't care that they are 1-4 vs RPI top 50."

He's still going to look like a fool if they win out. He will have them barely in as an 11 and they will get a 7 seed

[AZ Shocker]

At this point...I'm actually hoping that if God forbid we don't win St. Elgin that the stoopid committee (or what they really are) doesn't invite us...shows its "true colors" and makes an example.

That way...we can all see it as it what is made to be. Dollars. Eliticism. Left liberals controlling the media.....(Palm you f####r)

[jdshock]

This nutjob is hoping and praying for a WSU loss to justify his personal vendetta.

But he's also hoping and praying we win in St Louis so no one sees how wrong he was.

[Shocker Mama]

Palm is trying hard to displace Gottlieb on my Most Hated list.

[ShockerPrez]

Did the zags remain a #1 seed?

Also, did BYU punch their ticket since they beat a ranked team in their last few games, or is that rule only for sub .500 P5 schools?

[Dave Stalwart]

Did the zags remain a #1 seed?

Also, did BYU punch their ticket since they beat a ranked team in their last few games, or is that rule only for sub .500 P5 schools?

It won't count for BYU because the #1 they beat was Gonzaga. If it was Kentucky they'd be on the bubble now