NCAA Tournament Scores and Discussion Thread

[ShockingButTrue]

If you are a very good team, you don't lose to Illinois State. Ever. Anywhere.

I love silly rules based on outliers.

Are you a very good team if you beat Zona?

How about UNI?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I'm not arguing for or against a new topic. I'm more interested in the second sentence. "The big 12 did indeed once again underperform in the tournament this year." That's the reason I ask so many questions to you and Kel, who are both obviously more well versed statistically than most of us. I'm trying to figure out why the big12 underperforming in the tournament appears to be more the trend than the outlier. I use "appears", because it's quite possible that it partially looks that way because of my disdain for all things P5 related.

I was asking a friend a very similar question just the other day. Why does the Big 12 underperform so often in the tourney, and why does the ACC overperform so often? There is no BCS vs mid-major difference between the two conferences, and I've yet to identify a significant cause for the dramatic difference we see year-in-year-out.

4 of the last 5 years, the Big 12 conference has been ranked ahead of the ACC. And yet...

ACC last 5 years
28 total appearances
17 appearances as top 4 seeds

1 National Champion
2 Championship Game Appearances
2 Final Fours
8 Elite 8s
16 Sweet 16s


Big 12 last 5 years
30 total appearances
15 appearances as top 4 seeds

0 National Champions
1 Championship Game Appearance
1 Final Fours
4 Elite 8s
10 Sweet 16s

[kcshocker11]

I kept looking at Ochefu and thinking, "If only."

Shaq has that potential.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Are you a very good team if you beat Zona?

How about UNI?

[Cdizzle]

I was asking a friend a very similar question just the other day. Why does the Big 12 underperform so often in the tourney, and why does the ACC overperform so often? There is no BCS vs mid-major difference between the two conferences, and I've yet to identify a significant cause for the dramatic difference we see year-in-year-out.

4 of the last 5 years, the Big 12 conference has been ranked ahead of the ACC. And yet...

ACC last 5 years
28 total appearances
17 appearances as top 4 seeds

1 National Champion
2 Championship Game Appearances
2 Final Fours
8 Elite 8s
16 Sweet 16s


Big 12 last 5 years
30 total appearances
15 appearances as top 4 seeds

0 National Champions
1 Championship Game Appearance
1 Final Fours
4 Elite 8s
10 Sweet 16s

More crap teams at the bottom of the ACC to pull down it's in-season conference ranking?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

That doesn't work. I'm willing to go along with the point if it works. Illinois State is a middling team. 95 is not a middling score.

For instance, if you had been able to use Drake in your example, that would have worked.

If you are a very good team, you don't lose to Rutgers. Ever. Anywhere.

2015 Wisconsin was therefore, clearly, not a very good team.

*For @ShockingButTrue's sake, the above is NOT what I actually believe. It is an illustration to show that sweeping judgments based on extreme outliers are dumb.

[wusphlash]

I kept looking at Ochefu and thinking, "If only."

I kept looking at him and thinking he must be 31 at least.

[ShockerFever]

If you are a very good team, you don't lose to Illinois State. Ever. Anywhere.

I love silly rules based on outliers.

For a guy that defies logic and drops "straw man" and "rabbit trails" on the daily, that was horrid. I mean absolutely rock-bottom horrid.

[Cdizzle]

If you are a very good team, you don't lose to Rutgers. Ever. Anywhere.

2015 Wisconsin was therefore, clearly, not a very good team.

*For @ShockingButTrue's sake, the above is NOT what I actually believe. It is an illustration to show that sweeping judgments based on extreme outliers are dumb.

Closer, but still no. You're really kind of making my point for me. Rutgers was in the 61st percentile. Is 95 points in the 61st percentile for opponent points allowed this year? I'd wager no. Keep digging. You'll find one.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

More crap teams at the bottom of the ACC to pull down it's in-season conference ranking?

Teams ranked 201+ in last 5 years
Big 12 - 4
ACC - 3

And that is including the fact that the ACC has more teams than the Big 12.

[Cdizzle]

Teams ranked 201+ in last 5 years
Big 12 - 4
ACC - 3

And that is including the fact that the ACC has more teams than the Big 12.

Interesting. What about teams ranked 100+? They wouldn't constitute crap teams, but relative to Top 2 conferences, they would be a net drag.

[Kung Wu]

@Kung Wu, you should be a politician. Spin. Spin. Spin.

Oh, sure, your data seems convincing enough ... until I dump those photos of your nude wife that will completely discredit you.

[Kung Wu]

Concepts such as "they were overseeded and got to play crappier teams than they deserved" are fair to discuss in certain context, but it is totally irrelevant to this specific discussion.

No it isn't.

[DUShock]

[jdmee]

Closer, but still no. You're really kind of making my point for me. Rutgers was in the 61st percentile. Is 95 points in the 61st percentile for opponent points allowed this year? I'd wager no. Keep digging. You'll find one.

Ohh can I play. If you are a really good team you don't lose to the last place team in the valley. WSU's final four team wasn't really good.