Musings from the 1st Row

[WSUwatcher]

Thanks for your response, Ref. In summary:

1. I agree with your observation that the absence of Chris Jans from the bench is a loss for WSU and will be until someone else is able to provide the same level of constructive criticism and input, with the same impact.

2. I agree that the defense could have been better on Washpun, but disagree that defense was WSU's key deficiency in the game. When you hold an opponent to 47 points in 40 minutes, an essential part of which came on an unintentionally banked three pointer, your defense has been good enough to win the game. WSU lost the game on offense. Some posters seem focused on Brown, and his game was a nightmare on offense, to be sure. But he rebounded well (his eight were second only to Baker's nine for WSU), and I don't know why his missed FT is such a big deal to some posters. Grady also missed one and so did LeFred, and WSU didn't lose the game with bad FT shooting. If they had shot 10% (ten!) from three in regulation, there wouldn't have been an OT, and Baker and McDuffie missed more threes (many of them open) than Brown did, while Wessel was also 0-4.

3. Marshall's personality can be negative at times -- as another poster said, he's polarizing -- but even at its worst it's hardly how the program is defined in any negative sense, except among valley rival fanbases, who can be expected to dislike a guy whose teams play hard and regularly beat them. I'm still not convinced he was the provocateur with Elgin and Watkins, and regardless of which child "started it," their behavior as executives was in my view far more embarrassing than anything from Marshall, because that isn't how executives conduct themselves -- they aren't part of the game.

4. The way the game was played, either team would have been lucky to win -- but I believe UNI was luckier to win than WSU would have been had they won. Nevertheless, the Shocks had so many chances to do just one or two more things right, it's hard to feel much sympathy. They played hard, but in many ways just simply played poorly enough to lose. And it was disappointing that Ron and Fred couldn't get them over the top.

[Play Angry]

Nice discussion, good points being made, but how about this (taken from another discussion topic):

http://mweb.cbssports.com/ncaab/eye-on-college-basketball/25507276/why-wichita-state-is-the-most-polarizing-bubble-team-in-history

"The Shockers are 1-5 against teams currently projected in the field. And it lost to Seton Hall, Illinois State and Northern Iowa twice with VanVleet in the lineup. Marshall made mention of VanVleet also being hurt in the Tulsa game, but the fact is the committee will evaluate Wichita State as being at full strength in the game because VanVleet opted to play."

I hope we do get in, and I realize the season's not over, but there's no reason to assume that our team will have a miraculous turn-around and go deep into the tourney.

Still gotta fact check sources though.

1-5 vs. projected tournament field? (0-1 vs Tulsa, 0-1 vs Iowa, 0-1 vs USC, 1-0 vs Utah, 1-0 vs. NMSU, 1-2 UNI)

That is 3-5 vs. the field as things stand today. Not amazing but 300% better than the published inaccuracy.

[ShockerFever]

Nice discussion, good points being made, but how about this (taken from another discussion topic):

http://mweb.cbssports.com/ncaab/eye-on-college-basketball/25507276/why-wichita-state-is-the-most-polarizing-bubble-team-in-history

"The Shockers are 1-5 against teams currently projected in the field. And it lost to Seton Hall, Illinois State and Northern Iowa twice with VanVleet in the lineup. Marshall made mention of VanVleet also being hurt in the Tulsa game, but the fact is the committee will evaluate Wichita State as being at full strength in the game because VanVleet opted to play."

I hope we do get in, and I realize the season's not over, but there's no reason to assume that our team will have a miraculous turn-around and go deep into the tourney.

The more you post, the more I like our chances of doing something special.

So please keep burying your head with sand.


Oh, and if you're only going to CBS to try to cement your points into the ground, well then I really know you're in trouble.

[shoxlax]

Still gotta fact check sources though.

1-5 vs. projected tournament field? (0-1 vs Tulsa, 0-1 vs Iowa, 0-1 vs USC, 1-0 vs Utah, 1-0 vs. NMSU, 1-2 UNI)

That is 3-5 vs. the field as things stand today. Not amazing but 300% better than the published inaccuracy.

And 3-3 with a healthy FVV

[OregonShocker]

Your post has me thinking that UNI is currently the best team in the Valley.

Now don't go getting all loco... ;-)
BTW, how does one distinguish northern Iowa from the rest of Iowa????

[SHOCKvalue]

Nice discussion, good points being made, but how about this (taken from another discussion topic):

http://mweb.cbssports.com/ncaab/eye-on-college-basketball/25507276/why-wichita-state-is-the-most-polarizing-bubble-team-in-history

"The Shockers are 1-5 against teams currently projected in the field.

Is Utah not making the tournament now, or is this just another indication that journalists and math are a match similar to a snowman playing with a propane torch?

[_kai_]

You know, there IS the possibility that UNI is a good team. Better than us? Well...I don't think so, but... I thought the Valley was gonna be tough early in the season after some of the big time non-conference wins and then it sorta poofed out. I still want out of the Valley if we find the right fit, but there's no disrespect in calling the conference worthy of two teams in the big dance.

UNI is a good team, and they're better than us. 2-1 against WSU this year, proves they're better. Let's not be KU fans and ignore the final score or results, and say "Yeah, well on paper we're better."

[OregonShocker]

UNI is a good team, and they're better than us. 2-1 against WSU this year, proves they're better. Let's not be KU fans and ignore the final score or results, and say "Yeah, well on paper we're better."

I just hate to say it... it kinda sputters coming off the tongue.

[Dave Stalwart]

UNI is a good team, and they're better than us. 2-1 against WSU this year, proves they're better. Let's not be KU fans and ignore the final score or results, and say "Yeah, well on paper we're better."

However, at a certain point, body of work can still win the argument. Right now, given the last few weeks, you are right, but if we make a run and they don't, the body of work can swing it back towards us. Currently, #69 with a 2-1 head to head over #48 is a situation where the 2-1 record absolutely trumps the RPI differential...by a small margin.

[shocka khan]

Is Utah not making the tournament now, or is this just another indication that journalists and math are a match similar to a snowman playing with a propane torch?

I think that Utah was the 1. And I agree, I overlooked the fact that the victory against Northern Iowa (and the two losses) should have been included in the 1-5 record, which makes us 2-7.

EDIT: I do not know whether NMSU made the field or are projected to make the field.

[Kel Varnsen]

No, Kel, we need you here. You're the voice of reason and you have access (and time to access) the statistics that I don't. We can all 'see' things, but the analytics gives us the understanding to determine 'why' we are seeing it.

Haha thanks! Since you mentioned it, some statistics that might provide context:

Fred's eFG% in late offense (5 seconds or less on shot clock) is 33.8%, and he has 68 attempts in that situation this year. The next closest in terms of attempts is Ron, with 48, then Shaq with 31. Ron, Shaq, Anton, Evan, and Zach all have a better FG% late in the shot clock. As a team, we have taken more shots late in the shot clock than we have in transition (likely because the Valley mucks everything up). However, last year, including the tournament, we only took 187 shots late, and this year, we've already taken 341.

Basically confirms what we already knew. Our offense tends to be very stagnant and Fred takes a lot of shots (20% of them) when we can't get anything going. And he isn't effective. I think the hamstring is still bothering him. But I think he needs to defer more and we need to run a wider range of plays instead of PnR.

[GreatWhiteBuffalo]

The last five regular season games prior to the 2 game tournament were dominated by the Shox by 25+ points and nary a one voiced concerns. We actually had 3 iffy games in the middle of a dominating run. Now we lose a game and you mention poor execution. No one likes a loss or two but don't change facts afterward.

I'm well aware that they blew out some terrible teams along the way. That said, they never felt like the dominant team from the past few years. There is something very wrong with this current group and I just hope it isn't a sign of things to come. I hope it can just be chalked up to terrible chemistry or something along those lines. I don't know that I was changing facts, as you describe. The two tournament games were awful. They were mirror images of each other, each to teams WSU should have dominated. I don't think I ever felt that this team was ever really "back on track" after FVV returned. They have always seemed to be missing something and the last two games have, again, accentuated this. Their offense has been a concern of many on this board all season. The guys stand, don't move, force bad passes, take poor shots; this is all poor execution and it has been evident all year. I guess the real question is; were the blowouts that led up to the tourney the apparition or were the bad games the apparition? Since they couldn't find a way to win even two games in the tournament, in a very sub par conference, I find it difficult to say that my claim of their poor execution is a changed fact.

[ShockingButTrue]

UNI is a good team, and they're better than us. 2-1 against WSU this year, proves they're better. Let's not be KU fans and ignore the final score or results, and say "Yeah, well on paper we're better."

Don't you go there Kai!

You might unintentionally inspire some people around here.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

KenPom is VERY respected now, as the SportingNews article said.

WSU is ranked #10 (if you take out Louisville). The lowest to miss last season was #38. The lowest to ever miss was #25 Iowa in 2013. The lowest every other year is usually somewhere in the mid-thirties.

I hate to nit-pick because I like your main point, but Iowa in 2013 was #33 on selection sunday. They moved up to #25 with a long run in the NIT. The highest ranked team to ever be left out was #22 South Carolina in 2002. They were 18-14, 8-11 in the SEC.

You are correct that most years, the highest KenPom team to be left out is in the 30s. Leaving out #11 WSU would be insane.

[SHOCKvalue]

We went 1-2 against Creighton in 2012-2013, and ended up going to a F4. Was Creighton the better team? Going into the tournament I'm pretty sure we were a wash when it came to various quantitative analytics, but I think we answered the question pretty resoundedly, except for CU fans who hung onto the 1-2 thing like it was a child's huggie-blankie.

Who knows what happens this year moving forward, but a couple of things are for sure: three games is a tiny sample size (during Shocker baseball glory years, the list of teams we had 1-3 or 1-2 records against during the same season we made a CWS or a SR was large), and we absolutely smoke UNI in about whatever quantitative analytic you'd like to look up. Additionally, in our one win against UNI we beat them like at rented mule, at their house; the two games UNI won were ugly, ugly games that were essentially coin flips at the end.

If it is makes you feel better right now to say that UNI is the better club then fine, just know you are being emotional, not logical.