2016 Bracketology

[ShockerFever]

Seriously who is this noob? That was a pretty insulting depiction of WSU given the national profile of journalism the author represents. Is this guy just a nobody thrusted on to the scene?

Just a garbage breakdown with what honestly sounds like somebody with an agenda.

[Heinro]

http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2016/03/01/midmajor-ncaa-tournament-large-wichita-state-little-rock-valparaiso

This is actually a much better article on our our large resume. Doesn't make a prediction. But Beller should have asked his co-worker for her research, since his made him look like a high schooler.

[WuShock Reaper]

While I agree with most of the prior thoughts and analysis, and the cut-line of RPI #50 being about right, there will be teams <50 and teams >50 that will be included in this year's dance.

Prior to 2011 season, these were the highest RPI teams to get an at-large invite:
#63 NC State (2005)
#63 Stanford (2007)

In 2011 the tournament increased to 68 teams, this has resulted in teams with higher RPI's getting at-large bids. For example:
#64 Marquette (2011)
#67 USC (2011)

However, the following teams who failed to get invites even with pretty good RPI's:
#21 Missouri State (2006)
#29 Colorado State (2015)
#30 Air Force (2007)
#30 Hofstra (2006)
#31 Southern Miss (2013)
#32 Dayton (2008)
#34 Temple (2015)
#40 Cincinnati (2006)

For me to feel better about our at-large invite, we better when the next two.

[ShockerEngr]

An actual question, not trying to start stuff with this, do they count the rpi of a team we played the date we played them or as of current. That will make a difference in our top 100 wins

Current is the only one that makes much sense, otherwise the OOC #'s would be wonky as things don't settle down till late in the season. the "RPI" as known didn't use to be officially calculated till the end of the season for the selection committee (and not released)

Although, now, RPI isn't as significant as it used to be and selection folks have always been allowed to use whatever they'd like.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

JH4P, what odds do you give WSU to get a six seed if we win Arch Madness. It looks like it is going to be hard to crack to me.

I agree, gonna be hard to reach a 6. Possible, but I think a 7 is much more likely if the Shox win the next 3.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

However, the following teams who failed to get invites even with pretty good RPI's:
#21 Missouri State (2006) 28 - 10.9
#29 Colorado State (2015) 68 - 10.1
#30 Air Force (2007) 35 - Only in 5 of 30 brackets
#30 Hofstra (2006) 50 - 11.3
#31 Southern Miss (2013) 58 - 11.8
#32 Dayton (2008) 69 - Only in 4 of 53 brackets
#34 Temple (2015) 56 - 10.8
#40 Cincinnati (2006) 48 - 10.4

I added the KenPom ratings and the average bracket matrix projected seed for those teams. WSU is currently 8 - 8.9. Once you step away from just the RPI, everything else is vastly in WSU's favor. Usually, teams with decent RPI's that get left out have a flaw elsewhere. WSU doesn't.

2006 Missouri State is far and away the all time biggest snub, managing to be top 30 in both RPI and KenPom. However, it is important to remember that they were 5th in line from the MVC. The committee took all kinds of crap for even including a 4th MVC team. 2006 MSU had the deck totally stacked against them.

2016 WSU should have the deck stacked in their favor in nearly every regard. I don't think they will even need any of the "but the injuries" or "they've got star power" type arguments, but it is nice to know that virtually every unspoken, unofficial argument goes in their favor.

[DRuff34]

Joe Lunardi Bracketology has the #7 Shocks playing #10 UConn and, as a lifelong CT resident, that would suck. I guess it would be great to avenge the early season loss to them in Hawaii a few years age (damn you, Kemba Walker), but I am so sick of hearing about them that if would be awful watching the game. If the Shocks can't rise to a #6 seed, then I will pray that UConn drops, or doesn't even make the tourney. Rant over!

[Stickboy46]

Palm changed his category titles. Its no longer "work to do", It's Probably out.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/bubble-watch

and surprise surprise he has WSU as the 4th "probably out". How does he keep his job?

Yet 17-11 (8-9 in Pac 12, KenPom #62) Oregon State is probably in ...

[Dave Stalwart]

I added the KenPom ratings and the average bracket matrix projected seed for those teams. WSU is currently 8 - 8.9. Once you step away from just the RPI, everything else is vastly in WSU's favor. Usually, teams with decent RPI's that get left out have a flaw elsewhere. WSU doesn't.

2006 Missouri State is far and away the all time biggest snub, managing to be top 30 in both RPI and KenPom. However, it is important to remember that they were 5th in line from the MVC. The committee took all kinds of crap for even including a 4th MVC team. 2006 MSU had the deck totally stacked against them.

2016 WSU should have the deck stacked in their favor in nearly every regard. I don't think they will even need any of the "but the injuries" or "they've got star power" type arguments, but it is nice to know that virtually every unspoken, unofficial argument goes in their favor.

I also saw the WSU is something like 28 in espns BPI. It's interesting to see that every metric other than the rpi has us up really high. We are definitely a scary matchup. The regular rpi is the only thing that has us even remotely close to the bubble territory.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

How does he keep his job?

How do we likely face a Hillary vs Trump election? Stupid is in the air.

[Dave Stalwart]

How do we likely face a Hillary vs Trump election? Stupid is in the air.

This country will elect trump. You can just tell. We will because it makes no sense and seems like a really bad idea so you can get your butt we will do it. This is America :)

Oops. Basketball....there now they can't move this post

[Stickboy46]

I also saw the WSU is something like 28 in espns BPI. It's interesting to see that every metric other than the rpi has us up really high. We are definitely a scary matchup. The regular rpi is the only thing that has us even remotely close to the bubble territory.

Actually 23 in BPI.

[ShockdaWorld]

Palm changed his category titles. Its no longer "work to do", It's Probably out.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/bubble-watch

and surprise surprise he has WSU as the 4th "probably out". How does he keep his job?

Yet 17-11 (8-9 in Pac 12, KenPom #62) Oregon State is probably in ...

He keeps his job by getting clicks. CBS couldn't give 2 shits if he's any good at bracketology or not as long as he gets people to click on their site. In that regard, he's good at his job. He keeps the P5 honks clicking because even their bad teams are good in his eyes. He keeps the rest of us clicking to see what his piss poor excuse for a story will be this week.

[Shockers5150]

He keeps his job by getting clicks. CBS couldn't give 2 shits if he's any good at bracketology or not as long as he gets people to click on their site. In that regard, he's good at his job. He keeps the P5 honks clicking because even their bad teams are good in his eyes. He keeps the rest of us clicking to see what his piss poor excuse for a story will be this week.

Exactly right.

[boltforge]

He keeps his job by getting clicks. CBS couldn't give 2 shits if he's any good at bracketology or not as long as he gets people to click on their site. In that regard, he's good at his job. He keeps the P5 honks clicking because even their bad teams are good in his eyes. He keeps the rest of us clicking to see what his piss poor excuse for a story will be this week.

That is something so many people forget. Journalists are entertainment workers. That's it. Doesn't matter what they do ('hard news', sports, gossip, etc) they are just entertainment workers.

They make money getting people to read or watch the stuff the create. And there are two typical ways to make money doing this:

One. Make a good product that is serious, well written, intelligent, and engaging.

Two. Be a carnival barker.