2016 Bracketology

[Kung Wu]

Good post.

UNI will absolutely be a top 100 opponent if they make it past SIU on Friday and meet WSU in the semis. Even after losing to WSU, their final RPI would likely be in the 80s.
Evansville or ISUr would also both have secured top 100 status by the time they reached the finals.

If WSU wins the MVC Tourney, you can kiss goodbye all those stories about WSU lacking top 100 wins. (other than Palm, who will write one anyway and look dumb) At that point, there is a decent chance they have 8 top 100 wins on selection sunday and are looking at a 7 seed.

It would have been interesting to know what WSU's RPI, and thus UNI and Evansville's RPI looks like, had FVV not been hurt. It's interesting to think how much UNI an Evansville benefit from Capt. Gold Nutz being healthy.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

It would have been interesting to know what WSU's RPI, and thus UNI and Evansville's RPI looks like, had FVV not been hurt. It's interesting to think how much UNI an Evansville benefit from Capt. Gold Nutz being healthy.

Had WSU beaten USC, then lost to Xavier, then beaten Monmouth, their current RPI would be 17. Winning the MVC Tourney by beating UNI and Evansville would have pushed it all the way up to 14.

Change that to beating USC, Xavier, and Dayton for the championship, and a MVC Tourney win would provide an RPI of 9.

Hat tip rpiforecast.com

[Kung Wu]

Had WSU beaten USC, then lost to Xavier, then beaten Monmouth, their current RPI would be 17. Winning the MVC Tourney by beating UNI and Evansville would have pushed it all the way up to 14.

Change that to beating USC, Xavier, and Dayton for the championship, and a MVC Tourney win would provide an RPI of 9.

Hat tip rpiforecast.com

Wow, that's cool. What would UNI and Evansville's RPI have been in the first and second scenarios?

[shoxlax]

Had WSU beaten USC, then lost to Xavier, then beaten Monmouth, their current RPI would be 17. Winning the MVC Tourney by beating UNI and Evansville would have pushed it all the way up to 14.

Change that to beating USC, Xavier, and Dayton for the championship, and a MVC Tourney win would provide an RPI of 9.

Hat tip rpiforecast.com

What if you didn't consider those games period, since we were without Fred and even Conner. Would our RPI be higher than it is now or is there a true quality loss?

[Ricardo del Rio]

For reference, WSU is KenPom #8, RPI #38 at the moment.

St. Bonaventure's KenPom rank is 82. Only 3 times in 14 years has anyone outside the KenPom top 70 received an atlarge bid, and all 3 were in the low 70s. 82 would blow away the old record. St. B's RPI is 34, almost identical to WSU's, and they will likely finish with no more top 100 wins than WSU. Their 2 bad losses are much worse than WSU's losses to UNI and ISU. Their average margin of victory has been terrible for any eye test that committee members might perform. In their last 5 games again teams outside the top 100, they have 4 single digit wins and a loss! The Shox are beating these types of teams by 20-30 a game! The Bonnies are a LONG way behind WSU at the moment.

George Washington's KenPom rank is 72 and their RPI is 61. They might finish with fewer top 100 wins than WSU and they have 2 absolutely horrid losses to #188 and #197 to go along with a 3rd loss outside the top 100. They are also far behind WSU's tier.

Alabama's KenPom rank is 81 and their RPI is 58. They too are about 10 spots worse than the all time worst KenPom rank to ever receive an atlarge. They are currently sitting on 6 top 100 wins, so there is no guarantee they finish with any more than the Shox do. Their 2 worst losses are worse than anything WSU has on its resume. At 8-8 in the SEC, they should be worried. The last time a .500 team in the 6th ranked conference went dancing was 2002!

Notice I didn't even mention WSU's early injuries in any of the above. Factor that in for whatever its worth and WSU has no need to worry about any of these teams knocking them into the NIT.

You amaze me. Thanks.

[Dave Stalwart]

Had WSU beaten USC, then lost to Xavier, then beaten Monmouth, their current RPI would be 17. Winning the MVC Tourney by beating UNI and Evansville would have pushed it all the way up to 14.

Change that to beating USC, Xavier, and Dayton for the championship, and a MVC Tourney win would provide an RPI of 9.

Hat tip rpiforecast.com

Those numbers are exactly where I think the Shockers are in reality. They will be a scary matchup for anyone. We are a 3 seed disguised as an 8 seed, and somebody is gonna get "upset" in the most predictable upset of all time.

[shock-it-to-me]

Weren't we Vegas favorites against KU last year?

[WSUwatcher]

What if you didn't consider those games period, since we were without Fred and even Conner. Would our RPI be higher than it is now or is there a true quality loss?

That's a very good question, because reportedly the selection committee is expected to treat WSU's season as if it started after Orlando -- i.e., as if WSU were currently 21-3. We'll see how that goes, but where would the Shocks be right now if that was the case? Maybe that simulation will give us a clue whether the selectors really did operate that way when they do their jobs in a couple of weeks.

[MadaboutWu]

Weren't we Vegas favorites against KU last year?

IIRC we were a -1 or -2 dog when it opened and the line moved to have us as -1 or -2 favorite. Coin flip territory pretty much but still cool.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

What if you didn't consider those games period, since we were without Fred and even Conner. Would our RPI be higher than it is now or is there a true quality loss?

If you simply drop all 3 Orlando games from the resume as if they weren't even played, and then jump ahead to WSU having won the MVC Tourney, WSU would be 26-4 with a final RPI of 18.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Wow, that's cool. What would UNI and Evansville's RPI have been in the first and second scenarios?

WSU's record currently makes up 4.2% of UNI and Evansville's RPIs. Dropping 3 games and turning 26-7 WSU into 26-4 probably bumps the other MVC schools by a spot or two. Nothing significant.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I ran some quick projections assuming a worst case scenario for WSU over the next 2 weeks:

- WSU loses in the Semis to UNI
- ISUr, New Mexico St, and Nevada all finish just outside the top 100.
- All of Lunardi's current bubble teams listed below win all of their favored or toss-up games in their conference tournaments. This means, in cases of a 2/3, 4/5, or 8/9 matchup, I gave them all the benefit of the doubt and assumed they would win, even as the 3/5/9 seed. These are not necessarily best case scenarios for the bubble teams, but the whole group is given a "slightly better than expectations" forecast, other than WSU of course.

Here are the projected resumes for WSU, then Lunardi's last 4 in through first 8 out:

Team	RPI	KenPom	Top 100 Record	Losses to 100+
Wichita State	46	8	4-6	105
-------	---	---	---	---
Michigan	52	47	4-11	None
Oregon St	32	60	10-12	None
Butler	58	39	9-9	113
Florida	52	44	6-13	139
----CUT LINE----	---	---	---	---
Gonzaga	59	32	4-8	None
Tulsa	32	43	8-9	159, 148
St. Bonaventure	29	81	6-7	244, 155
Alabama	62	82	7-10	158, 144, 103
George Washington	52	72	6-6	195, 184, 116
Ohio State	77	64	3-10	159, 120, 108
Washington	76	65	8-12	114, 103
LSU	84	73	7-8	6 Total

Remember, this is pretty much a worst case scenario for WSU. If ISUr, or Nevada, or NMSU get into the top 100, WSU's resume improves. If WSU gets to the Finals, their resume improves. If any of these bubble teams fails to progress somewhat deep in their conference tourneys, their resume drops.

A highly unlikely scenario, without even bothering to give any consideration for WSU's injuries, and yet it still appears that WSU gets in. Breathe easy folks. Breathe easy.

[Kung Wu]

WSU's record currently makes up 4.2% of UNI and Evansville's RPIs. Dropping 3 games and turning 26-7 WSU into 26-4 probably bumps the other MVC schools by a spot or two. Nothing significant.

Do you mean turning 26-7 WSU into a 29-4?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Do you mean turning 26-7 WSU into a 29-4?

Yes, sorry. I mixed you up with @shoxlax's request to simply have the 3 Orlando games dropped. Either way, the key is that moving WSU from the 30s of the RPI to the 20s, teens, or even top 10 doesn't make a huge difference for other MVC teams. A little bit, but not a lot.

[XManCometh]

IIRC we were a -1 or -2 dog when it opened and the line moved to have us as -1 or -2 favorite. Coin flip territory pretty much but still cool.

I'm not surprised considering that was one of the worst KU tournament teams in recent memory.