2016 Bracketology

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Well, should we lose another game and solidify our NIT bid, thought you'd like to see what the NIT projection is. No secret, MVC teams are not highly thought of as EU is given an 8 seed.

Losing another game doesn't solidify an NIT bid. It doesn't even open the door to one.

EU getting an NIT invite at all sounds favorable to me. They are 91 in RPI, 90 in KenPom, and in 3rd place in the 13th ranked league.

@KC Shox, your negativity isn't even interesting anymore. It's lame. At least try to show some creativity or something.

[Shockers5150]

It really would be cool to string together 3 or 4 straight MVC tourney titles. A kid can dream.

[ShockerFever]

Well, should we lose another game and solidify our NIT bid, thought you'd like to see what the NIT projection is. No secret, MVC teams are not highly thought of as EU is given an 8 seed.

http://bracketmatrix.com/nit

Follow the link to the updated NCAA bracket, I actually like how this site places us. I wouldn't mind this at all.

Just as I suspected. Loser mentality for the resident loser.

[Play Angry]

Well, should we lose another game and solidify our NIT bid, thought you'd like to see what the NIT projection is. No secret, MVC teams are not highly thought of as EU is given an 8 seed.

http://bracketmatrix.com/nit

2.5 out of 10. Your punishment is one month of Reddit lurking to observe trolling that is funny at least 5% of the time.

[Slalomshocker]

Looking at the teams around WSU in the various brackets. WSU is in. Its not a great resume but it is lacking a truly bad loss. UNI is the worst loss, sitting at RPI 115 (warren nolan) AFTER last night. UNI/ISUr are the only non-top 50 losses. South Carolina..... just lost to 191-Missouri. Providence lost to 172-DePaul. Cal lost to 124-Richmond. Those are teams within 1 seed line +/- according to Lundardi. To add to all the 'bad' losses, all the teams around WSU stand a chance to reasonably, if not probably, lose at least 1-2 more games in the regular season. Florida and S.Carolina play each other on Saturday. Cal, USC, Colorad and Utah have games against each other remaining. If WSU keeps winning, wins on senior day and makes the MVC finals (which i fully expect), no chance they get left out. Even without any benefits from the VanVleet injury. I think WSU could possibly climb to a 6 if they win and some other team currently behind them does not get hot and rattles of some good wins. I am quite confident we can expect a 7-10 seed unless this team proves it does not belong. This team is solidly in right now. Too many teams taking truly bad losses.

[shockmonster]

Palm says if the Shox don't win out, including St Louis, they are out. I don't think he's right but just in case.... win 'em all Shockers!

Where did Palm seed us last year? If I remember, he had us at a 12 last year and the committee gave us a 7. Does Palm know what he is talking about?

[HenryMuto]

Unless you are talking about WSU losing 2 of their final 4 regular season games, if they win the MVC Tourney, they sure as heck aren't falling to an 11 seed.

I don't know where you guys will be seeded if you win out. Hard to say how the committee would view you but if they go strictly by the paper an 11 seed or 10 seed isn't out of the question.

Current RPI 50 will go up some but how much since none of the wins will be moving the needle much.
1-5 vs RPI top 50
3-5 vs RPI top 100

Illinois State is currently RPI 107 if you beat them they won't finish in the top 100 and you need to beat them the last game of the year.
Evansville currently RPI 91

So the only win of note all year is Utah. How many other teams would get higher than an 11 seed with a win over Utah and nothing else and 7 total losses ?

Chattanooga won at Dayton a team that will get about same seed range as Utah has about same RPI as Utah.

Chattanooga has only 4 losses and people say if they lose a 5th game they won't even get at large bid.

Chattanooga's RPI is currently 33 yours is 50.

If the committee decides that none of your losses count when FVV missed games then I could see a 7 seed but if they take games for face value then you could easily be an 11 seed range.

[HenryMuto]

Where did Palm seed us last year? If I remember, he had us at a 12 last year and the committee gave us a 7. Does Palm know what he is talking about?

Palm had you guys as a 7 seed last year.

http://bracketmatrix.com/matrix_2015.html

[HenryMuto]

The guy who won the bracket matrix contest last year with 347 pts (though I did beat him with 351 pts myself) has you guys as the 1st #12 seed right now.

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

[AndShock]

I put together some very rough numbers with the 3 highest rated teams in KenPom that were left out of the tournament in the last 5 years. I hope someone else hasn't already done something like this otherwise I just wasted 10-15 minutes. The reason the numbers are very rough is that KenPom has pre and post-tourney data listed separately and without going through quite a few teams that were left out the tournament, it's possible to miss teams that were left out that had great KenPom ratings and just majorly tanked in the NIT and/or got passed by a few teams that played very well in the NIT/CIT/CBI. There might a quicker way to find more reliable numbers but if there is I am unaware. Anyways:

(For reference 2016 Wichita State is 14)

2015
Florida - 45
Vanderbilt - 47
Stanford - 48

2014
SMU - 32
Utah -36
Florida State - 41

2013
Iowa - 33
Virginia - 36
Baylor - 38

2012
Drexel - 39
Miami (FL) - 40
Stanford - 66

2011
New Mexico - 38
Virginia Tech - 41
Alabama 51

[ShockerFever]

That's not even funny.

The lowest in the last 5 years was 32 and we're sitting at 14 right now?

What does world-renown bracketologist Jerry Palm have to say about that one?

[Shockers5150]

Palm tweeted, in response to another tweet, that the UNI loss left doubt about wsu. This right after saying Maryland and Dayton are the only 2 top 35 teams with losses to sub 200 teams.

Thank god he won't be the deciding vouce, or the rest of his CBS buds.

But it reiterates that the shox cannot lose again. Leave 0 doubt.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

But it reiterates that the shox cannot lose again. Leave 0 doubt.

No, it reiterates that Palm is not worth listening to. He is entitled to his own opinions, but he isn't talking about his own personal opinions of what should happen, he is talking about what the committee will do. In regards to predicting the committee's actions, he is simply not worth listening to and he is routinely wrong. Very wrong.

It's like listening to your crazy uncle tell you how John Kasich has all the momentum and will be the Republican nominee. He has no idea what he's talking about. Don't be a jerk. Be friendly. But once you go your separate ways, don't give your crazy uncle's prediction another thought.

[GreatWhiteBuffalo]

No, it reiterates that Palm is not worth listening to. He is entitled to his own opinions, but he isn't talking about his own personal opinions of what should happen, he is talking about what the committee will do. In regards to predicting the committee's actions, he is simply not worth listening to and he is routinely wrong. Very wrong.

It's like listening to your crazy uncle tell you how John Kasich has all the momentum and will be the Republican nominee. He has no idea what he's talking about. Don't be a jerk. Be friendly. But once you go your separate ways, don't give your crazy uncle's prediction another thought.

Completely understand where you're coming from. What scares me is to HEAR a pundit say it, or even put it out there. If he thinks that way, others likely do also. The other thing is, once those things are said, they cannot be unsaid and how much influence will it have on those decision makers?

[Stickboy46]

No, it reiterates that Palm is not worth listening to. He is entitled to his own opinions, but he isn't talking about his own personal opinions of what should happen, he is talking about what the committee will do. In regards to predicting the committee's actions, he is simply not worth listening to and he is routinely wrong. Very wrong.

It's like listening to your crazy uncle tell you how John Kasich has all the momentum and will be the Republican nominee. He has no idea what he's talking about. Don't be a jerk. Be friendly. But once you go your separate ways, don't give your crazy uncle's prediction another thought.

I don't like Palm either, but someone pointed out that he's been off ONE seed line for the last 3 years combined on WSU. Had last year and the year before correct and was one line off in 2013.