WSU VERSUS INDIANA PREDICTIONS AND PREGAME DISCUSSIONS

[another shocker]

i might have missed it, but can an iu fan provide a link(s) to any iu fan message boards? it would be appreciated.

[hoosierweebey]

I agree with you -- chances are Indiana absolutely has the best transition offense WSU will have played this year.

On the other hand, Wichita State absolutely has the best transition defense Indiana will have played this year. WSU's defensive efficiency ranking of 7, or 15th when adjusted for KenPom's rankings, isn't just better than any team in the Big 10, but better by a pretty giant margin. Ohio State is the closest in the first ranking (#24), and Wisconsin is the closest in the second (#31).

It's going to be a fun strength-versus-strength matchup.

... although WSU's #29/21 offensive efficiency rankings in those same measures would still rank fourth in the Big 10, while Indiana's 287/219 defensive rankings are the second worst WSU's faced all year.

Also, thanks to all the Indiana fans for being so cool on here this week.

L'ville and Butler both have better Kenpom Deff. L'ville dominated us with post athleticism. Butler, who's coach I know and really like, made the mistake of letting his guys try and trade baskets and came up a little short when their shorter post guys missed some shots around the bucket.

[hoosierweebey]

The reason WSU might want to slow this game down has nothing to do with WSU being bad in high scoring games. We are actually quite good in them. The reason to slow the game down is that Indiana is only 1-7 in games where they don't score 70 this year. In fact, they are only 8-11 in games they don't score 80.

This is exactly right. WSU can win a fast paced game. They'll almost assuredly win a more moderately paced game. IU's weakness is defense. They want a game where you trade baskets and not one where you have to get stops.

[shockmonster]

This is exactly right. WSU can win a fast paced game. They'll almost assuredly win a more moderately paced game. IU's weakness is defense. They want a game where you trade baskets and not one where you have to get stops.

Hopefully we can stay with you.

[pie n eye]

Shaq Morris will not be able to sprint up and down the court more than a couple times.

That's just not true.

[KC Shox]

Interesting match-up. Behind Utah, they are tied with NIU as the second toughest opponent will have faced this year, IMO.

Looking at the stats, I was surprised to see their rebounding rankings were not far off from ours. Considering their style of play, I expected to see their rebounding stats in the lower half of D1 ball, however while we rank 170th in Defensive Rebounds, they rank 146th. While we rank 85th in Offensive Rebounds, they rank 79th. Given the size similarities and the conference they play in, that is impressive.

As you would expect, key offensive categories IU ranks ahead of us are in 3-point FG percentage made (8th nationally to 87th), Free Throw percentage (91st to 185th), Field Goal percentage (46th to 101st) and Assist Per Game (75th to 83rd). That's 6 key categories they are better than we are.

We lead them in Fewest turnovers per game (4th nationally to 108) and Steal per game at (76th to 304th! They don't get a lot of steals).

While this team certainly can score and have the edge there, we have an edge in experience. The 'X' Factor that's going to cost us the game is that we're going to pull a K-State 2013. They had the chance to square off against us, just had to beat LaSalle and they choked.

I don't think we have the scorers to keep up with IU in a shooting contest. We'll try to slow them down, and since they are deadly from the 3, we'll focus on the perimeter which will open up the dribble drive penetration. As we lack quality depth and experience down low, DC will get in foul trouble and SM and RK will rack up the fouls too. This leads to IU to get to the line quickly, as they are a good FT team, will begin to separate themselves.

As a result, we will be forced to take 3's, which is not our specialty, and won't simply make enough to keep up. Game over. Better getting beat by them than by KU and having to listen to their incessant trolling on our boards and at work.

[vancedave56]

WSU does not intentionally slow a game down on offense. We like to fast break at a given opportunity but will patiently work for a better shot. WSU does slow the game down with defense -making the opposition work hard for a good look.

[The Mad Hatter]

Looking at the stats, I was surprised to see their rebounding rankings were not far off from ours. Considering their style of play, I expected to see their rebounding stats in the lower half of D1 ball, however while we rank 170th in Defensive Rebounds, they rank 146th. While we rank 85th in Offensive Rebounds, they rank 79th. Given the size similarities and the conference they play in, that is impressive.

Are you just looking at raw rebounding numbers, because given their quicker tempo, those numbers will be skewed by number of possessions (more shots = more rebounds). Rebounding Percentage is a far better comparison point. Here are those numbers and ranks:

	Defensive Rebounding %	Offensive Rebounding %
Indiana	68.8% (#185)	35.3 (#52)
Wichita State	73.6% (#25)	35.3 (#52)

As you can see, we are dead even on the offensive glass, but WSU is a much better defensive rebounding team.

Statsheet for IU: http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/india...stats?type=all
Statsheet for WSU: http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/wichi...stats?type=all

[Shock Top]

While this team certainly can score and have the edge there, we have an edge in experience. The 'X' Factor that's going to cost us the game is that we're going to pull a K-State 2013. They had the chance to square off against us, just had to beat LaSalle and they choked.

Funny, because I remember each team having to win two games to make that happen. Also, we were the higher numbered seed in that scenerio.

If you would have said 2014 and all they had to do was beat UK, then that would have been correct. (Though we all know how underseeded they were)

As a result, we will be forced to take 3's, which is not our specialty, and won't simply make enough to keep up. Game over. Better getting beat by them than by KU and having to listen to their incessant trolling on our boards and at work.

Thanks, but I'll trust the opinions of experts and the numbers that say WSU has better then a 70% chance to win.

Can't say I am surprised with your prediction though. I was wondering when the black sheep would return.

[wufan]

Originally Posted by wufan:
Shaq Morris will not be able to sprint up and down the court more than a couple times.

That's just not true.

I just think the same conditioning issues that have limited his PT will limit him from being able to play extended minutes against an up tempo team.

[Shocker-maniac]

WSU does not intentionally slow a game down on offense. We like to fast break at a given opportunity but will patiently work for a better shot. WSU does slow the game down with defense -making the opposition work hard for a good look.

Exactly

[thefro]

i might have missed it, but can an iu fan provide a link(s) to any iu fan message boards? it would be appreciated.

www.peegs.com (Most active, but a lot of the better discussion is on the Premium forum.)
www.insidethehall.com (Good comments on the articles, forum is somewhat less active)
indiana.scout.com
www.btownbanners.com/

[pinstripers]

Originally Posted by wufan:
Shaq Morris will not be able to sprint up and down the court more than a couple times.



I just think the same conditioning issues that have limited his PT will limit him from being able to play extended minutes against an up tempo team.

Or........maybe he has really toned the last two weeks.

[Shocker-maniac]

5 keys to an IU victory:

http://www.news-sentinel.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20150319/SPORTS/150319621/1002

[Shocker-maniac]

What to Expect: Wichita State

http://www.insidethehall.com/2015/03/19/what-to-expect-wichita-state/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+insidethehall+%28Inside+the+Hall+%7C+An+Indiana+Hoosiers+basketball+blog%29