2015 Bracketology

[shocks02]

I figured this will deserve it's own thread over the next two months.

First bracketology of 2015 from ESPN's Joe Lunardi. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Updated bracketology from Jerry Palm at CBS. http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

[Bluzrover]

The best thing about that scenario is a potential match-up in the Elite 8 with the chickenhawks. I'm not convinced they could get past Butler, let alone Gonzaga.

Worst thing is another potential go with Seton Hall and GW. I suspect all three of us will be much improved come March. Not sure I still want those rematches other than the GW rematch to make up for the Hawaii loss.

Of course, all of this will change about a dozen times or more between now and March.

[shocktheheart]

Palm's bracket out and he also has WSU at #4. UNI at #6.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

[shocks02]

Newest bracketology from Jerry Palm at CBS is out. http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Potential second round matchup with Bowling Green.

[Jhook89]

Man I am ready for march!

[WuDrWu]

Newest bracketology from Jerry Palm at CBS is out. http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

What a bracket matchup that could be.

Matt Braeuer's BearKats in the 1st Round

The Fighting Chris Jans Bowling Green State University team in the round of 32, Johnny Jones' LSU team who beat WSU in 81 in a home game to go to the Final Four, then finally a rematch against either Utah or George Washington to punch our ticket to our 2nd Final Four in 3 years.

[Cdizzle]

I believe Chris Jans puts together one of the best scouting reports in the country. Facing a team with a Chris Jans scouting report on a team Chris Jans knows from years of experience sounds like a terrible idea.

[Kel Varnsen]

I remember really wanting to play Duke in 2013 when we knew it was either them or Louisville. We matched up well with them and it would've been so much fun to beat those guys.

[jocoshock]

@ESPNLunardi: Updated seed list (thru 1/11): 01-UK, 02-UVA, 03-Duke, 04-NOVA, 05-ZAGA, 06-WISC, 07-Zona, 08-KU, 09-UTAH, 10-Maryland, 11-Lville, 12-IowaSt

@ESPNLunardi: 13-NDame, 14-Unc, 15-VCU,16-WICHITA,17-Wvu, 18-Okla, 19-SHall, 20-Arka, 21-Texas, 22-Baylor, 23-Uni, 24-Prov, 25-Butler, 26-Stan, 27-Odu


@ESPNLunardi: 28-Cincy, 29-SDSt, 30-MichSt, 31-Iowa, 32-OhioSt, 33-Xavier, 34-Gtown, 35-Dayton, 36-ColoSt, 37-Gw, 38-OklaSt, 39-Smu, 40-Temple, 41-Conn

@ESPNLunardi: (Last Four In) 42-NC State, 43-Lsu, 44-Indiana, 45-Syracuse

[ShockerFever]

I don't understand how our numbers are improving, we've played a killer schedule, have more Top 50 wins already than all of last year, and we're barely hanging on to a 4 seed?

[WuShock16]

While it's fun to look at and speculate, I don't put any stock into what Lunardi says. By Selection Sunday, all of us can come up with at least 60 of the teams selected, if not closer to 65. The only difference is that he gets paid for his prognostications. If the guy is such a genius, he should get 60+ correct on his preseason bracketology, which he most certainly does not.

[jocoshock]

I don't understand how our numbers are improving, we've played a killer schedule, have more Top 50 wins already than all of last year, and we're barely hanging on to a 4 seed?

Could be mistaken, but I thought we were a 5 on his (Lunardi) bracketology last week....

edit: nope - we were a 4..... still better than a 5!!

[ShockerFever]

Could be mistaken, but I thought we were a 5 on his (Lunardi) bracketology last week....

We were a 4. And now we're dangling on to a 4.

[shockerfanmas]

3 letters.. MVC. If the Shox played in a power 5 conference they'd probably be predicted as a 2 seed. And, what are the odds that they wouldn't have been a 1 seed had they lost even 1 or 2 games last season? I'd bet pretty high

[ShockTalk]

I don't understand how our numbers are improving, we've played a killer schedule, have more Top 50 wins already than all of last year, and we're barely hanging on to a 4 seed?

I'll throw out a few possibilities on our ranking this year compared to last year and simply regarding this year.

Last year at this time, there were 6 teams with 0 losses and 7 with 1 loss, 7 with 2, and 5 with 3+. We were the 5th team of 6 undefeated with one team with a single loss ahead of us. Had we had 2 losses last year at this time, we'd be #20-25 if that.

This year there are only 2 undefeated teams and 3 one loss teams. Now we have 13 with 2 losses and 8 with 3+. We are pretty much in the middle third of the 2 loss teams. Probably only 2 teams you could make a case for not being ahead of us. Arizona and Notre Dame. Arizona was a pre-season #2, so they're not going to fall into the middle of the 2 loss teams despite their schedule and who they lost to. I have zero argument for ND being ahead of us. There are also a couple of teams with like overall schedules and records, Iowa St and Maryland, so they are a push. We are ahead and behind a different one in each poll. Several of our top 50 are borderline or projected lower than 50 (Alabama, Tulsa, and especially Loyola). Maryland has comparable losses and a fewer number of top 100 wins, but their top 3 wins are solid top 50 (Michigan St, Iowa St, and Oklahoma St). Seton Hall is our only solid top 50. Likewise, Iowa St has a schedule similar to ours, but their top 3 wins are better than ours (projected).

What this all comes down to is that maybe we should be 1, possibly 2 spots better at best. Not a big difference at this point of the season. Our big challenge is not to have a bad loss of which we will have numerous opportunities, unlike most our competition in the Top 25. Lastly, this conference schedule will also hit us for a few spots when it comes time for the seeding.