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2014-15 RealTime Projections

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  • #46
    Originally posted by im4wsu View Post
    KenPom projections 25-3 record. Here are game-by-game projections

    Loyola Marymount W, 74-57 64 95% Neutral
    Drake W, 70-54 58 95% Away
    Illinois St. W, 69-58 63 90% Home
    Bradley W, 68-50 60 97% Home
    Loyola Chicago W, 66-58 59 81% Away
    Southern Illinois W, 68-51 59 96% Home
    Evansville W, 67-61 62 73% Away
    Missouri St. W, 70-60 61 86% Away
    Drake W, 74-51 58 98% Home
    Loyola Chicago W, 69-55 59 94% Home
    Northern Iowa W, 59-58 57 53% Away
    Bradley W, 64-53 60 91% Away
    Missouri St. W, 74-57 61 96% Home
    Indiana St. W, 74-55 64 97% Home
    Illinois St. W, 66-61 63 71% Away
    Southern Illinois W, 64-54 59 87% Away
    Evansville W, 71-58 62 91% Home
    Indiana St. W, 70-58 64 90% Away
    Northern Iowa W, 62-55 57 80% Home
    Which two loses do we have? These all show W's.

    Comment

    • #47
      Originally posted by 1979Shocker View Post
      Which two loses do we have? These all show W's.
      If you add up the % chance of losing, we have a 229%. That equates to two game lost.

      I have no idea if that's how it works.
      Livin the dream

      Comment

      • #48
        Originally posted by 1979Shocker View Post
        Which two loses do we have? These all show W's.
        As was discussed last year, even if you are favored in every game indivuduslly, your odds of winning them all is lower than adding up the individual games.
        "Cotton scared me - I left him alone." - B4MSU (Bear Nation poster) in reference to heckling players

        Comment

        • #49
          Originally posted by wufan View Post
          If you add up the % chance of losing, we have a 229%. That equates to two game lost.

          I have no idea if that's how it works.
          That's exactly how it works I believe.

          Comment

          • #50
            Sunday morning 12/21/14 at 9:00 am

            RealTime- RPI rankings Team Power Rating from Realtime Projecions from Realtime
            Date RPI Rank RPI SOS Rank SOS Rank Power Rank SOS Record Rank Proj Rank SOS
            21-Nov 176 0.4583 249 0.2778 9 81.00 297 42.06 27 - 0 12 0.6113 133 0.4817
            29-Nov 1 0.7854 6 0.7139 7 81.99 130 46.73 27 - 0 8 0.6240 110 0.4986
            6-Dec 28 0.6486 41 0.5940 4 87.69 92 52.27 26 - 1 12 0.6146 118 0.4941
            13-Dec 4 0.6932 7 0.6409 3 87.87 32 55.29 26 - 1 11 0.6197 108 0.5009
            20-Dec 3 0.6918 6 0.6223 8 84.19 23 57.88 23 - 4 18 0.5978 109 0.4991
            21-Dec 4 0.6900 6 0.6200 10 78.93 23 57.83 23 - 4 19 0.5962 114 0.4969
            RealTime- RPI rankings Team Power Rating from Realtime Projecions from Realtime
            Date RPI Rank RPI SOS Rank SOS Rank Power Rank SOS Rank Proj Rank SOS
            "I not sure that I've ever been around a more competitive player or young man than Fred VanVleet. I like to win more than 99.9% of the people in this world, but he may top me." -- Gregg Marshall 12/23/13 :peaceful:
            ---------------------------------------
            Remember when Nancy Pelosi said about Obamacare:
            "We have to pass it, to find out what's in it".

            A physician called into a radio show and said:
            "That's the definition of a stool sample."

            Comment

            • #51
              Originally posted by wufan View Post
              If you add up the % chance of losing, we have a 229%. That equates to two game lost.

              I have no idea if that's how it works.
              It based off of probabilities. You run a simulation with the probabilities for x-times and you build up a distribution (think of normal distribution) of win/losses. Generally, I believe they are taking the 50/50 probability for their projected win/losses. Right now for WSU the probabilities are:

              26-1 2.9%
              25-2 13.4%
              24-3 25.1%
              23-4 26.4%
              22-5 18.1%
              21-6 9.7%
              20-7 3.3%
              19-8 1%
              18-9 0.2%
              17-10 0.02%
              15-12 0.01%

              2 Likely losses - at UNI, and remember 90% chance of winning is not 100%. 90% is not 100%. Enough 90% probabilities will lead to potentially a 100% loss.

              Comment

              • #52
                Hawaii game day, 12/22/14, at 8:30 am I added last season's final numbers as the first line in the table below:

                RealTime- RPI rankings Team Power Rating from Realtime Projecions from Realtime
                Date RPI Rank RPI SOS Rank SOS Rank Power Rank SOS Record Rank Proj Rank SOS
                8-Apr 6 0.6428 97 0.5337 2 87.3 125 51.27 35 - 1 6 0.6428 97 0.5337
                21-Nov 176 0.4583 249 0.2778 9 81.00 297 42.06 27 - 0 12 0.6113 133 0.4817
                29-Nov 1 0.7854 6 0.7139 7 81.99 130 46.73 27 - 0 8 0.6240 110 0.4986
                6-Dec 28 0.6486 41 0.5940 4 87.69 92 52.27 26 - 1 12 0.6146 118 0.4941
                13-Dec 4 0.6932 7 0.6409 3 87.87 32 55.29 26 - 1 11 0.6197 108 0.5009
                20-Dec 3 0.6918 6 0.6223 8 84.19 23 57.88 23 - 4 18 0.5978 109 0.4991
                21-Dec 4 0.6900 6 0.6200 10 78.93 23 57.83 23 - 4 19 0.5962 114 0.4969
                22-Dec 4 0.6859 7 0.6145 11 78.78 22 57.56 23 - 4 19 0.5958 118 0.4965
                RealTime- RPI rankings Team Power Rating from Realtime Projecions from Realtime
                Date RPI Rank RPI SOS Rank SOS Rank Power Rank SOS Rank Proj Rank SOS
                "I not sure that I've ever been around a more competitive player or young man than Fred VanVleet. I like to win more than 99.9% of the people in this world, but he may top me." -- Gregg Marshall 12/23/13 :peaceful:
                ---------------------------------------
                Remember when Nancy Pelosi said about Obamacare:
                "We have to pass it, to find out what's in it".

                A physician called into a radio show and said:
                "That's the definition of a stool sample."

                Comment

                • #53
                  Tuesday morning at 7:40 am Drop 4 spots in RealTime RPI by defeating LMU by 150% of the spread while playing starters only 100 minutes and the last six guys (including 3 walkons) 38 minutes. The 2nd/3rd/4th teamers held the 27 point lead.

                  RealTime- RPI rankings Team Power Rating from Realtime Projecions from Realtime
                  Date RPI Rank RPI SOS Rank SOS Rank Power Rank SOS Record Rank Proj Rank SOS
                  8-Apr 6 0.6428 97 0.5337 2 87.3 125 51.27 35 - 1 6 0.6428 97 0.5337
                  21-Nov 176 0.4583 249 0.2778 9 81.00 297 42.06 27 - 0 12 0.6113 133 0.4817
                  29-Nov 1 0.7854 6 0.7139 7 81.99 130 46.73 27 - 0 8 0.6240 110 0.4986
                  6-Dec 28 0.6486 41 0.5940 4 87.69 92 52.27 26 - 1 12 0.6146 118 0.4941
                  13-Dec 4 0.6932 7 0.6409 3 87.87 32 55.29 26 - 1 11 0.6197 108 0.5009
                  20-Dec 3 0.6918 6 0.6223 8 84.19 23 57.88 23 - 4 18 0.5978 109 0.4991
                  21-Dec 4 0.6900 6 0.6200 10 78.93 23 57.83 23 - 4 19 0.5962 114 0.4969
                  22-Dec 4 0.6859 7 0.6145 11 78.78 22 57.56 23 - 4 19 0.5958 118 0.4965
                  23-Dec 8 0.6733 15 0.5930 11 78.75 31 55.66 23 - 4 16 0.6033 117 0.4968
                  RealTime- RPI rankings Team Power Rating from Realtime Projecions from Realtime
                  Date RPI Rank RPI SOS Rank SOS Rank Power Rank SOS Rank Proj Rank SOS
                  "I not sure that I've ever been around a more competitive player or young man than Fred VanVleet. I like to win more than 99.9% of the people in this world, but he may top me." -- Gregg Marshall 12/23/13 :peaceful:
                  ---------------------------------------
                  Remember when Nancy Pelosi said about Obamacare:
                  "We have to pass it, to find out what's in it".

                  A physician called into a radio show and said:
                  "That's the definition of a stool sample."

                  Comment

                  • #54
                    Christmas Eve at 8:00 am. Heart is still pounding.

                    RealTime- RPI rankings Team Power Rating from Realtime Projecions from Realtime
                    Date RPI Rank RPI SOS Rank SOS Rank Power Rank SOS Record Rank Proj Rank SOS
                    8-Apr 6 0.6428 97 0.5337 2 87.3 125 51.27 35 - 1 6 0.6428 97 0.5337
                    21-Nov 176 0.4583 249 0.2778 9 81.00 297 42.06 27 - 0 12 0.6113 133 0.4817
                    29-Nov 1 0.7854 6 0.7139 7 81.99 130 46.73 27 - 0 8 0.6240 110 0.4986
                    6-Dec 28 0.6486 41 0.5940 4 87.69 92 52.27 26 - 1 12 0.6146 118 0.4941
                    13-Dec 4 0.6932 7 0.6409 3 87.87 32 55.29 26 - 1 11 0.6197 108 0.5009
                    20-Dec 3 0.6918 6 0.6223 8 84.19 23 57.88 23 - 4 18 0.5978 109 0.4991
                    21-Dec 4 0.6900 6 0.6200 10 78.93 23 57.83 23 - 4 19 0.5962 114 0.4969
                    22-Dec 4 0.6859 7 0.6145 11 78.78 22 57.56 23 - 4 19 0.5958 118 0.4965
                    23-Dec 8 0.6733 15 0.5930 11 78.75 31 55.66 23 - 4 16 0.6033 117 0.4968
                    24-Dec 6 0.6817 12 0.5994 10 79.45 26 56.24 25 - 4 15 0.6057 104 0.5062
                    RealTime- RPI rankings Team Power Rating from Realtime Projecions from Realtime
                    Date RPI Rank RPI SOS Rank SOS Rank Power Rank SOS Rank Proj Rank SOS
                    "I not sure that I've ever been around a more competitive player or young man than Fred VanVleet. I like to win more than 99.9% of the people in this world, but he may top me." -- Gregg Marshall 12/23/13 :peaceful:
                    ---------------------------------------
                    Remember when Nancy Pelosi said about Obamacare:
                    "We have to pass it, to find out what's in it".

                    A physician called into a radio show and said:
                    "That's the definition of a stool sample."

                    Comment

                    • #55
                      Originally posted by im4wsu View Post
                      Christmas Eve at 8:00 am. Heart is still pounding.
                      I hear ya'...

                      "You Just Want to Slap The #### Outta Some People"

                      Comment

                      • #56
                        WSU has played three road games, equaling VCU, Virginia, Wisconsin and Northern Iowa as the most for the top-10 RPI teams. Of that group, WSU and UNI have played the fewest home games (five).
                        Kansas is Flat. The Earth is Not!!

                        Comment

                        • #57
                          Merry Christmas to all of you and your families and friends. No games yesterday, but there was one change in the projections
                          RealTime- RPI rankings Team Power Rating from Realtime Projecions from Realtime
                          Date RPI Rank RPI SOS Rank SOS Rank Power Rank SOS Record Rank Proj Rank SOS
                          8-Apr 6 0.6428 97 0.5337 2 87.3 125 51.27 35 - 1 6 0.6428 97 0.5337
                          21-Nov 176 0.4583 249 0.2778 9 81.00 297 42.06 27 - 0 12 0.6113 133 0.4817
                          29-Nov 1 0.7854 6 0.7139 7 81.99 130 46.73 27 - 0 8 0.6240 110 0.4986
                          6-Dec 28 0.6486 41 0.5940 4 87.69 92 52.27 26 - 1 12 0.6146 118 0.4941
                          13-Dec 4 0.6932 7 0.6409 3 87.87 32 55.29 26 - 1 11 0.6197 108 0.5009
                          20-Dec 3 0.6918 6 0.6223 8 84.19 23 57.88 23 - 4 18 0.5978 109 0.4991
                          21-Dec 4 0.6900 6 0.6200 10 78.93 23 57.83 23 - 4 19 0.5962 114 0.4969
                          22-Dec 4 0.6859 7 0.6145 11 78.78 22 57.56 23 - 4 19 0.5958 118 0.4965
                          23-Dec 8 0.6733 15 0.5930 11 78.75 31 55.66 23 - 4 16 0.6033 117 0.4968
                          24-Dec 6 0.6817 12 0.5994 10 79.45 26 56.24 25 - 4 15 0.6057 104 0.5062
                          Christmas 6 0.6817 12 0.5994 10 79.47 26 56.24 25 - 4 14 0.6069 103 0.5079
                          RealTime- RPI rankings Team Power Rating from Realtime Projecions from Realtime
                          Date RPI Rank RPI SOS Rank SOS Rank Power Rank SOS Rank Proj Rank SOS
                          "I not sure that I've ever been around a more competitive player or young man than Fred VanVleet. I like to win more than 99.9% of the people in this world, but he may top me." -- Gregg Marshall 12/23/13 :peaceful:
                          ---------------------------------------
                          Remember when Nancy Pelosi said about Obamacare:
                          "We have to pass it, to find out what's in it".

                          A physician called into a radio show and said:
                          "That's the definition of a stool sample."

                          Comment

                          • #58
                            The morning after. Ugh. at 8:00 am.

                            RealTime- RPI rankings Team Power Rating from Realtime Projecions from Realtime
                            Date RPI Rank RPI SOS Rank SOS Rank Power Rank SOS Record Rank Proj Rank SOS
                            8-Apr 6 0.6428 97 0.5337 2 87.3 125 51.27 35 - 1 6 0.6428 97 0.5337
                            21-Nov 176 0.4583 249 0.2778 9 81.00 297 42.06 27 - 0 12 0.6113 133 0.4817
                            29-Nov 1 0.7854 6 0.7139 7 81.99 130 46.73 27 - 0 8 0.6240 110 0.4986
                            6-Dec 28 0.6486 41 0.5940 4 87.69 92 52.27 26 - 1 12 0.6146 118 0.4941
                            13-Dec 4 0.6932 7 0.6409 3 87.87 32 55.29 26 - 1 11 0.6197 108 0.5009
                            20-Dec 3 0.6918 6 0.6223 8 84.19 23 57.88 23 - 4 18 0.5978 109 0.4991
                            21-Dec 4 0.6900 6 0.6200 10 78.93 23 57.83 23 - 4 19 0.5962 114 0.4969
                            22-Dec 4 0.6859 7 0.6145 11 78.78 22 57.56 23 - 4 19 0.5958 118 0.4965
                            23-Dec 8 0.6733 15 0.5930 11 78.75 31 55.66 23 - 4 16 0.6033 117 0.4968
                            24-Dec 6 0.6817 12 0.5994 10 79.45 26 56.24 25 - 4 15 0.6057 104 0.5062
                            Christmas 6 0.6817 12 0.5994 10 79.47 26 56.24 25 - 4 14 0.6069 103 0.5079
                            26-Dec 8 0.6642 10 0.6090 11 77.42 18 57.61 23 - 6 18 0.5917 100 0.5106
                            RealTime- RPI rankings Team Power Rating from Realtime Projecions from Realtime
                            Date RPI Rank RPI SOS Rank SOS Rank Power Rank SOS Rank Proj Rank SOS
                            "I not sure that I've ever been around a more competitive player or young man than Fred VanVleet. I like to win more than 99.9% of the people in this world, but he may top me." -- Gregg Marshall 12/23/13 :peaceful:
                            ---------------------------------------
                            Remember when Nancy Pelosi said about Obamacare:
                            "We have to pass it, to find out what's in it".

                            A physician called into a radio show and said:
                            "That's the definition of a stool sample."

                            Comment

                            • #59
                              Saturday morning 12/27/14 at 8:40

                              RealTime- RPI rankings Team Power Rating from Realtime Projecions from Realtime
                              Date RPI Rank RPI SOS Rank SOS Rank Power Rank SOS Record Rank Proj Rank SOS
                              8-Apr 6 0.6428 97 0.5337 2 87.3 125 51.27 35 - 1 6 0.6428 97 0.5337
                              21-Nov 176 0.4583 249 0.2778 9 81.00 297 42.06 27 - 0 12 0.6113 133 0.4817
                              29-Nov 1 0.7854 6 0.7139 7 81.99 130 46.73 27 - 0 8 0.6240 110 0.4986
                              6-Dec 28 0.6486 41 0.5940 4 87.69 92 52.27 26 - 1 12 0.6146 118 0.4941
                              13-Dec 4 0.6932 7 0.6409 3 87.87 32 55.29 26 - 1 11 0.6197 108 0.5009
                              20-Dec 3 0.6918 6 0.6223 8 84.19 23 57.88 23 - 4 18 0.5978 109 0.4991
                              21-Dec 4 0.6900 6 0.6200 10 78.93 23 57.83 23 - 4 19 0.5962 114 0.4969
                              22-Dec 4 0.6859 7 0.6145 11 78.78 22 57.56 23 - 4 19 0.5958 118 0.4965
                              23-Dec 8 0.6733 15 0.5930 11 78.75 31 55.66 23 - 4 16 0.6033 117 0.4968
                              24-Dec 6 0.6817 12 0.5994 10 79.45 26 56.24 25 - 4 15 0.6057 104 0.5062
                              Christmas 6 0.6817 12 0.5994 10 79.47 26 56.24 25 - 4 14 0.6069 103 0.5079
                              26-Dec 8 0.6642 10 0.6090 11 77.42 18 57.61 23 - 6 18 0.5917 100 0.5106
                              27-Dec 8 0.6642 10 0.6090 11 77.43 18 57.60 23 - 6 18 0.5917 99 0.5107
                              RealTime- RPI rankings Team Power Rating from Realtime Projecions from Realtime
                              Date RPI Rank RPI SOS Rank SOS Rank Power Rank SOS Rank Proj Rank SOS
                              "I not sure that I've ever been around a more competitive player or young man than Fred VanVleet. I like to win more than 99.9% of the people in this world, but he may top me." -- Gregg Marshall 12/23/13 :peaceful:
                              ---------------------------------------
                              Remember when Nancy Pelosi said about Obamacare:
                              "We have to pass it, to find out what's in it".

                              A physician called into a radio show and said:
                              "That's the definition of a stool sample."

                              Comment

                              • #60
                                Sunday 12/28/14 at 9:20 am
                                RealTime- RPI rankings Team Power Rating from Realtime Projecions from Realtime
                                Date RPI Rank RPI SOS Rank SOS Rank Power Rank SOS Record Rank Proj Rank SOS
                                8-Apr 6 0.6428 97 0.5337 2 87.3 125 51.27 35 - 1 6 0.6428 97 0.5337
                                21-Nov 176 0.4583 249 0.2778 9 81.00 297 42.06 27 - 0 12 0.6113 133 0.4817
                                29-Nov 1 0.7854 6 0.7139 7 81.99 130 46.73 27 - 0 8 0.6240 110 0.4986
                                6-Dec 28 0.6486 41 0.5940 4 87.69 92 52.27 26 - 1 12 0.6146 118 0.4941
                                13-Dec 4 0.6932 7 0.6409 3 87.87 32 55.29 26 - 1 11 0.6197 108 0.5009
                                20-Dec 3 0.6918 6 0.6223 8 84.19 23 57.88 23 - 4 18 0.5978 109 0.4991
                                27-Dec 8 0.6642 10 0.6090 11 77.43 18 57.60 23 - 6 18 0.5917 99 0.5107
                                28-Dec 9 0.6630 8 0.6073 12 76.96 18 57.51 23 - 6 18 0.5923 97 0.5115
                                RealTime- RPI rankings Team Power Rating from Realtime Projecions from Realtime
                                Date RPI Rank RPI SOS Rank SOS Rank Power Rank SOS Rank Proj Rank SOS
                                "I not sure that I've ever been around a more competitive player or young man than Fred VanVleet. I like to win more than 99.9% of the people in this world, but he may top me." -- Gregg Marshall 12/23/13 :peaceful:
                                ---------------------------------------
                                Remember when Nancy Pelosi said about Obamacare:
                                "We have to pass it, to find out what's in it".

                                A physician called into a radio show and said:
                                "That's the definition of a stool sample."

                                Comment

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