Non-Con is Over, New Valley Predictions?

[shocker3]

Given what we know now, I think it'll look something like this:

1. sCUm

2. ILSU
3. WSU

4. INSU
5. UNI
6. BU

7. EU
8. SIU
9. DU






10. MSU

The injuries are gonna hinder us more than we think. Our defense will keep us in a lot of games and we'll likely ugly a lot of stuff up without about 1/3 of our offense. Hopefully, we recover in time and avoid any damaging losses to bottom-half teams..

I have watched more Valley basketball this year than ever before in my life. I have seen every Valley team play at least once and I have seen a lot of Creighton games. Watching Missouri St was very painful. Having said all of that I agree totally with your rankings. Including putting MSU a very, very distant last.

I do remain hopeful though that WSU will survive the injuries better than can be expected and end up winning the Valley. But doing an honest assessment with our injuries I have to put WSU third right now behind Creighton and the Redbirds. I really hope the team injuries fade fast and I am proven wrong.

[shock]

1. The Almighty One


















2. Ill. State
3. UNI
4. Ind. State
5. MSU
6. Evansville
7. Drake



8. SIU
9. Bradley







10. WSU



Seems pretty accurate from what I've seen on that crappy Valley Board with the BOOM goes the dynamite owner/Führer.

[ShockerPrez]

I predict we wont have to freaking wait weeks in between games!!! These times between games is brutal on a fan.

[Dave Stalwart]

The weeklong wait for this next game is going to be brutal on UNI.

[RomeoCrennel's Belly]

1. Creighton - They are by far and away the best team. They'll probably slip up once or twice but I fully expect them to win the conference.
2. Illinois State - A solid squad with athleticism and experience
3. Indiana State - Well coached and been playing well of late
4. WSU - I just don't see how we finish higher than 4th. It's sad but a state of truth.
5. UNI - Wish they weren't even in our league but they are.
6. Drake - They'll do just enough to stay out of the bottom 4.
7. Evansville - It'll be a battle between them and Drake to stay out of Thursday but I just think Drake is a little better.
8. SIU - Improved. But not good enough.
9. Bradley - They're still bad.
10. Misery State - Yikes.

[RoyalShock]

Here is how 10,000 computer simulations thinks the Valley will shake out:

http://nycbuckets.com/2012/12/10000-sims-missouri-valley-conference/

[shox1989]

Here is how 10,000 computer simulations thinks the Valley will shake out:

http://nycbuckets.com/2012/12/10000-...ey-conference/

While the 10,000 simulations only give us a 14% chance of winning the title outright (vs. 62% for Cu) it still has WSU second, with Illinois St third at just 6%. They also said there is a much better chance that MoST would go winless then anyone else going undefeated.

The average number of wins for the 10,000 simulations:

Average Wins:

1. Creighton – 15.1
2. Wichita St. – 13.3
3. Illinois St. – 12.5
4. Northern Iowa – 10.2
5. Indiana St. – 8.6
6. Evansville – 8.2
7. Bradley – 7.8
8. Drake – 6.6
9. Southern Illinois – 5.6
10. Missouri St. – 1.9

[ShockerFever]

Does this simulation take into account the injury situation?

[RoyalShock]

Does this simulation take into account the injury situation?

I think he's just using Pomeroy's ratings, so only inasmuch as the injuries have affected our last 2-3 games.

[BOBB]

I'd take 13 today if it was offered. 14 will usually win it. I would hate to be one of the 1.9 teams that lose to the Bares.

[1972Shocker]

Injury update from Pual Suellentrop:

Wichita State back to work

Dec. 27, 20123:34 p.m.
Here is an injury update on the Shockers, who return to practice today ahead of Sunday’s game against Northern Iowa.

• Jake White is practicing today. He visited a chiropractor after back spasms sidelined him for the Southern Mississippi game Saturday. “It’s good,” he said. “I was a like an inch-and-a-half out place in my hips, and that caused a bunch of back spasms, so he just popped it back in place.”
• Carl Hall is targeting mid-January as the earliest for his return from a broken right thumb. He would like to be back for Jan. 16 (Illinois State) or Jan. 19 (Creighton). Those games represent the earliest he could return and late January may be more realistic. “I do want to come back for the Creighton and Illinois State games,” he said. “That’s cutting it close, but I’m going to try to catch those games.”
• Ron Baker likely won’t be off crutches until early February. Then he could need as much as two weeks, perhaps more, to test his left foot and see if the stress fracture is healed before playing.
• Evan Wessel’s broken right pinky will likely keep him out Sunday and perhaps beyond. “It’s still hurting pretty good,” he said. “We’ll see how it feels and play it day by day.” Wessel said he may take a week or two and see how the finger responds before deciding on surgery, which would likely sideline him 4-6 weeks.
  
  Read more here: http://blogs.kansas.com/shockwaves/#storylink=cpy

[valleyclimber]

Really looking forward to MVC season and think it'll be a war for the top spots. I've got this for the standings:

1. Bluejays
2. Redbirds
3. Shockers
4. Sycamores
5. Panthers
6. Aces
7. Bulldogs
8. Salukis
9. Braves
10.Bears

Think CU will drop 2 or 3 games and the Redbirds and Shockers will be hot on their trail. The Trees and Cats should be in a good scrap for the #4 spot while the Aces and Bulldogs will be fighting for that important #6 position (and out of the Arch Madness play-in round).


The Salukis and Braves look improved in the non-con, but it's Valley season now and all the teams will seem like a steamroller. And then there's the Bears....could it be an 0-18 season. That has happened since DU accomplished that dubious feat many many seasons ago.

Anyhow, I am completely psyched for Valley time....oh yeah!! :)

ROCK ON MVC!!

[WuDrWu]

If Gregg wins the Valley again this season, returning to the NCAA, he should get National Coach of the Year. At this point, anything above 4 and he should be considered.

[ShockerFever]

Checked some message boards Doc. UNI fans still think they have a shot at an at-large, lol.

[Dave Stalwart]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

6 seed, projected mvc champs... Gotta love Jerry palm right now.