Non-Con is Over, New Valley Predictions?

[1979Shocker]

You pretty much hit it, Doc. Four teams doing better than what the pundits thought - WSU, In St, Bradley, and SIU. Three where most thought they would be - CU, Ill St, and Evansville. Three doing worse - UNI and Drake not by much and MSU a disaster.

Just how good would the Valley have been at this point had MSU been in the 150-200 RPI range?


Edit: Went back and looked at my prediction: CU, Ill St, WSU, UNI, Evansville, Drake, IN St, MSU, BU, SIU.

Now I'd go with: CU, WSU (if the injuries don't catch up with us), Ill St, three way tie In St, UNI, Evansville, then, Bradley, Drake, SIU, MSU (maybe the only lock).

In the poll you pick us at 4-5 losses. So does that mean CU runs away with it and we lag behind in second? Or does CU have 2-3 losses and so there's really no separation between the top teams and the rest?

[1979Shocker]

If we can keep our losses down to 1 until our injured players get back, we should battle Creighton for first. If we end up having 3 during this time, then we'll be battling Illinois State for second.

[ShockerPrez]

So many ?? With the shox right now, its tough to predict. I think the Jays lose 3 in conference, which probably is good enough to take 1st. If we had our horses, I would feel confident we could go 16-2 in conference, but feel we will drop 2 early on, which will require a sweep of CU to have a chance. Dont see that happening, so I think the shox go 14-4 and take 2nd. Ill St and UNI will lose at least 5. After that, dont care.

[ShockTalk]

In the poll you pick us at 4-5 losses. So does that mean CU runs away with it and we lag behind in second? Or does CU have 2-3 losses and so there's really no separation between the top teams and the rest?

I'm still a little concerned about the injuries, how fast players get back to near 100%, and whether a single (wrong) player getting in foul trouble also costs us a game with a shortened bench. I also think we may be underestimating some of the other teams as not being as dangerous as I think they may be on a given night.

Without the injuries, I would probably think we could be a 15-3 (60% chance)/16-2 (40% chance) team and be right with or next to CU, 16-2 (60%)/15-3 (40%). Even getting Hall back, he won't be 100% and that still leaves Baker out another 2 weeks and Wessel probably for the season. How quickly will White get better, will EO get back to 100% anytime soon? That's a lot to overcome. So, with the injuries, I'm leaning 14-4 (80%)/15-3 (20%). After Ill St, I think the best that group of 3 teams do is 11-7, more likely 10-8. So that's probably a 3 game separation between 3rd and 4th.

Add: I still think we win the Valley tourney.

[pinstripers]

I refuse to watch the beakers, but I looked at the box score from the Ohio State game. They only had 8 players show up in the box, and one was Ellis with only 5 minutes.

[1972Shocker]

I'm still a little concerned about the injuries, how fast players get back to near 100%, and whether a single (wrong) player getting in foul trouble also costs us a game with a shortened bench. I also think we may be underestimating some of the other teams as not being as dangerous as I think they may be on a given night.

I'm with you on this point @ShockTalk:. The Shocks certainly had their ups and downs in their two post-injury games agains Charleston Southern and Southern Miss but they can still really D it up. EO looked the best he has looked since his ankle injury and I assume they probably got a few days off after the Southern Miss game.

I think C.J. and Nick have done a very nice job in their enhanced roles and that will make us a better team in the long run.

At this point we have a team that will be competitive in most games and will probably play a lot of close games. That presents an opportunity to drop a game here or there that you might not expect.

It is just impossible to know how effective Carl and Ron will be when the come back. I assume Carl will have that thumb taped pretty good when he does return and he will have to play with some pain. Ron probably has to be pain free before they let him return so he may be good to go although it will probably take him a couple of weeks minimum to get back into game condition. Evan will either be playing with a lot of pain or he won't be playing at all. My guess is the latter will be the case. Who knows what's going on with Jake.

I would be very satisfied if the Shocks finish at 13-5 in the Valley. CU, ILS, INS, UNI, BU, DU and UE will all present tough road challenges. CU and ILS will be a handful in Koch Arena.

Of course, this all assumes the New Year will not see a continuation of the injury bug that has bit us big time so far this year.

[Trueshock]

Injuries are not losses in themselves.

We are simply better than BU, UE, SIU, MSU, UNI, and DU. There's 12 wins right there. If we lose even once to any of these teams, that will be a very bad loss and will certainly be shown on the TV screen during selection Sunday as so. Even when Hall and Baker do come back, they still won't be immediately 100 percent. There will be some rust to knock off and some conditioning that will need to be brought back up to speed not to mention the pain they must adjust to. At best, we'll split with ISU red and blue, and Creighton. We'll probably get swept by at least one of these three, so I'm predicting 14 - 4 at best. Something tells me a split with UNI certainly isn't out of the the realm of possibility so final answer is we go 13 - 5.

At best we will split with ISU and Creighton you say. I am glad that you are not a player.We would certainly lose if you were playing. Only losers concede games before they are played. You speak as if what you say is a fact and set in stone. HOGWASH!

[Trueshock]

That's kinda hard when there are only 10 teams LOL.

[Trueshock]

Negative thinking doesn't necessarily make bad things happen

We are simply better than BU, UE, SIU, MSU, UNI, and DU. There's 18 wins right there. If we lose even once to any of these teams, that will be a very bad loss and will certainly be shown on the TV screen during selection Sunday as so. Even when Hall and Baker do come back, they still won't be immediately 100 percent. There will be some rust to knock off of my brain and some conditioning that i will need to be brought back up to speed not to mention the pain i must adjust to. At best, we'll split with Duke and Ohio. We'll probably beat all of these teams so I'm predicting 18 - 0 . Something tells me a national championship trophy isn't out of the the realm of possibility so final answer is we go 34 - 1.

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[Ta Town Shocker]

I don't really feel qualified to rank all the teams as I've only caught a couple of Valley games outside of WSU's. I did watch the Trees play Miami on Christmas day and Odom looks like he's back to full speed after battling injuries last season. They also have a transfer from Gonzaga, Arop, who is extremely an extremely gifted athlete.

[wufan]

At best we will split with ISU and Creighton you say. I am glad that you are not a player.We would certainly lose if you were playing. Only losers concede games before they are played. You speak as if what you say is a fact and set in stone. HOGWASH!

At best we will go 18-0, but I'm not prognosticating that in prediction thread. I think a split is a good prediction. I just don't get you True?

[Steeleshocker]

I think Carl will be up to his old tricks faster than many expect. He's probably conditioning like a man on a mission, and probably working on his off hand shooting. Baker will need some time to get back to 100%. Provably another 2-3 weeks to be fully in game shape.

[ShockerFever]

I just don't get you True?

I don't either. A lot of Dofo in that one.

[ShockerFever]

Given what we know now, I think it'll look something like this:

1. sCUm

2. ILSU
3. WSU

4. INSU
5. UNI
6. BU

7. EU
8. SIU
9. DU






10. MSU

The injuries are gonna hinder us more than we think. Our defense will keep us in a lot of games and we'll likely ugly a lot of stuff up without about 1/3 of our offense. Hopefully, we recover in time and avoid any damaging losses to bottom-half teams..

[Dave Stalwart]

I don't know what I think about the whole mvc season but I do known one thing. We are going to beat UNI really bad on Sunday behind a kadrillion points from wiggins and an inside defensive effort by EO the likes of which has not been seen since the last time we played a school from Iowa.