Bracketology

[GoShockers89]

What is the difference between playing a #1 seeded Gonzaga/Miami versus playing a #2 seeded Michigan/Michigan State this year?

Nothing. Quit being such *******.

[CBB_Fan]

What is the difference between playing a #1 seeded Gonzaga/Miami versus playing a #2 seeded Michigan/Michigan State this year?

Nothing. Quit being such *******.

1. Playing a #1 seeded Gonzaga/Miami is a practical certainty. We have a slight chance of facing a #15 seed with a #2 ranked team, even if that is unlikely.

2. There is usually a big difference in quality between #1 seeds and #2 seeds. Historically, #1 seeds win in the Round of 32 87% of the time (94-14). #2 seeds have gone 18-7 in the past few years, so you have a winning percentage of about 70%. More importantly, the average winning margin for #1 seeds is 8.8 PTs, and the average winning margin for #2 seeds is 4.0 PTs.

So historically there is some reasoning behind my madness.

[Veritas]

Vegas odds to win National Championship

WSU. 100-1
CU. 100-1

Others of note
KU. 10-1
KSU. 50-1
OU. 150-1
VCU. 50-1
UK. 100-1
UNC. 100-1

Will be interesting to see how this changes once the selections have been made and certain teams are excluded from the tournament (UK).

[GoShockers89]

1. Playing a #1 seeded Gonzaga/Miami is a practical certainty. We have a slight chance of facing a #15 seed with a #2 ranked team, even if that is unlikely.

2. There is usually a big difference in quality between #1 seeds and #2 seeds. Historically, #1 seeds win in the Round of 32 87% of the time (94-14). #2 seeds have gone 18-7 in the past few years, so you have a winning percentage of about 70%. More importantly, the average winning margin for #1 seeds is 8.8 PTs, and the average winning margin for #2 seeds is 4.0 PTs.

So historically there is some reasoning behind my madness.

No worries bro, I'm well read on bracket science too. The biggest takeaway from it is about as simple as it gets:

Always strive for the highest seed possible. Your odds of advancement only decrease as you descend down the seeding ladder. That holds true for 90%+ of all advancement scenarios and the ones where it doesn't are almost certainly statistical anomalies.

Anyone saying they'd rather have a 7 seed than a 5 seed, for example, is silly.

[CBB_Fan]

No worries bro, I'm well read on bracket science too. The biggest takeaway from it is about as simple as it gets:

Always strive for the highest seed possible. Your odds of advancement only decrease as you descend down the seeding ladder. That holds true for 90%+ of all advancement scenarios and the ones where it doesn't are almost certainly statistical anomalies.

Anyone saying they'd rather have a 7 seed than a 5 seed, for example, is silly.

Maybe not a 7 seed over 5 seed, but definitely a 6 seed over a 5 seed. See here.

Here is another example. Look at the distribution of Sweet 16s by seed (last ten years):

1: 36
2: 25
3: 25
4: 14
5: 17
6: 11
7: 8
8: 2
9: 2
10: 7
11: 4
12: 8

So, what are the lessons from this? You DO NOT want to be an 8/9 seed. Going above that or below that is much better. There is very little difference between 2/3 seeds, 4/5 seeds, and 6/7 seeds, so ideally you would care more about matchup than seeding in this case. Now, let's go even farther and look at how many of those teams made the Elite 8:

1: 31 (86%)
2: 18 (72%)
3: 12 (48%)
4: 3 (14%)
5: 4 (24%)
6: 3 (27%)
7: 3 (38%)
8: 2 (100%)
9: 0 (0%)
10: 2 (29%)
11: 2 (50%)
12: 2 (20%)

There is basically no difference 4-12 in terms of making the Sweet 16, though 4s and 5s have the lowest percentages. Again, you DO NOT want to face a #1 seed if you want to get past the Sweet 16. Past the 5 seed, it is all about matchups.

In terms of getting to the Final Four, you want to be as high a seed as possible with the following exceptions:

1. A 6 seed is more likely than a 4/5 seed
2. A 10 seed is more likely than a 8/9 seed
3. A 14 seed is very slightly more likely than a 12/13 seed. (statistically, not experimentally)

What does this mean? Avoid the 1 seeds if you want to have the best odds to advance.

[jocoshock]

No worries bro, I'm well read on bracket science too. The biggest takeaway from it is about as simple as it gets:

Always strive for the highest seed possible. Your odds of advancement only decrease as you descend down the seeding ladder. That holds true for 90%+ of all advancement scenarios and the ones where it doesn't are almost certainly statistical anomalies.

Anyone saying they'd rather have a 7 seed than a 5 seed, for example, is silly.

Not disputing what you are saying, but we were a 7 seed in 2006 when we went to the S16 and a 5 seed last year. Granted, Seton Hall sucked as a 10 seed and Tennessee probably didn't deserve their 2 seed, but we definitely got bit by the 5-12 thing last year against VCU (although I would contend that VCU was better than a 12). So call me silly.. I will be happy with any seed from 5-11, but would prefer to avoid the 5, 8, or 9 if we can... just superstitious (and silly)...

[GoShockers89]

A bunch of stuff

Sigh, you are neglecting 1st round advancement rates.

Sure, a very similar number of 7 and 6 seeds have made it to the Elite 8 compared with 4 and 5 seeds. However, the 6 and 7 seeds are upset in the first round or defeated in the 2nd round much more often than the 4/5 spots. You have to win the first one to even have a chance at making a deep run.

Give me the most favorable first/second round matchup every single time. Especially in a rare year when 1 and 2 seeds are indistinguishable from a quality standpoint.

[CBB_Fan]

Sigh, you are neglecting 1st round advancement rates.

Sure, a very similar number of 7 and 6 seeds have made it to the Elite 8 compared with 4 and 5 seeds. However, the 6 and 7 seeds are upset in the first round or defeated in the 2nd round much more often than the 4/5 spots. You have to win the first one to even have a chance at making a deep run.

Give me the most favorable first/second round matchup every single time. Especially in a rare year when 1 and 2 seeds are indistinguishable from a quality standpoint.

Actually, the first numbers given were just the total number of teams to advance to the Sweet 16 regardless of the first round matchup. Basically:

Round of 32: You want the best seed available
Sweet 16: You want the best seed available if you are a top 5 seed. If you aren't, you just don't want to be the 8/9 seed, as the 6-7, 10-12 seeds are all fairly similar.
Elite 8: You want the best seed available if you are a top 3 seed. If you aren't, you just want to avoid being a 4/5/8/9 seed, as the 6-7, 10-12 seeds are all fairly similar.
Final 4: You want the best seed available, most notably a #1 seed.

So while you are correct if we want to get either a single win or make it to the Final Four, it definitely is better for the Sweet 16 or Elite 8 to avoid playing the #1 seed. If you are going to the Final Four, you probably are either going to be playing the #1 seed or the team that upset them, so it doesn't matter as much. Statistically, the most likely outcome for a #1 seed is a loss in the Elite 8.

[Rocky Mountain Shock]

My feeling is that no matter what seed they give us, we're going to be underseeded, so the teams we play are the ones who are going to need to worry.

[shockerofandover0943]

I am saddened with CBB's return. His exit following the SIU game was followed with a 4 game winning streak. Should have stuck to MVCFans.

[shox1989]

Lunardi's latest bracket has WSU as a 8 seed and Cu as a 9 seed. He lists WSU's stock as going up and Cu's as going down. He also lists Indiana St at the top of the list of the NEXT FOUR OUT.

[Signman]

Warren nolan bracket has us playing Notre Dame in the round of 64 and the next round match up with KU in kc. Think there might be just a few driving up for that game.

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

Imagine the TRAVESTY if more WSU fans were there than KU fans. They would never let it die.

[ABC]

Imagine the TRAVESTY if more WSU fans were there than KU fans. They would never let it die.

There is absolutely no way that would happen. Shockers would represent well, but it would be a KU crowd.

[rrshock]

There is absolutely no way that would happen. Shockers would represent well, but it would be a KU crowd.

Especially in KC